You’ve made it to the biggest week in all of fantasy sports — the fantasy football championship! Everything is on the line and the stakes have reached their apex. You did all your research, made great transactions via trades and free agency, and dominated the draft.

Unfortunately, some of the studs who got you here may have decreased viability due to an injury, a slump, or a tough matchup. It would be a shame to get this far and lose it all because you didn’t analyze the matchups. Doing that will help you find players on your bench or in free agency who could be worth a spot-start. Well fear not brethren because our featured pros are coming to your aid in our game’s biggest week and will help you identify both potential championship-winning sleepers and players who may let you down at the worst possible time.

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Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?

Tre’Quan Smith (WR – NO) 
“If the Steelers sellout to slow down Michael Thomas, we could see Smith have another big game. He’ll see Coty Sensabaugh most of the game, who I’d consider to be a below-average NFL cornerback. He’s been tossed around by multiple teams the last few years but has seemingly found a home in Pittsburgh. He’s allowed just a 57 percent catch rate in his coverage during his two years with them, but he’s also allowed seven touchdowns on 70 targets in coverage. Smith never stopped being a full-time player in this offense, even if his target numbers have been down. What I will say is that there’s not a WR4/5-type option who’s available in most leagues and offers as much upside as he does.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Randall Cobb (WR – GB) 
“Whether Aaron Rodgers was playing or not, I would like Cobb this week. With the news from the man himself that he will be playing, I like Cobb even more. Although Rodgers may be having a lackluster season, so are the Jets and they are also giving up 243 yards per game through the air. That’s a number sure to increase this week with the injury to Aaron Jones, making Jamaal Williams the lone back in the offense.

This is where Cobb comes in as he will work in the slot, making him almost a branch of the running game as the Packers dink and dunk passes to him to open up downfield for Adams. Cobb will be heavily targeted and could reach double-digit receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown in this championship game matchup. If you had Josh Gordon and Cobb is available, he is a great replacement.”
– Dominick Petrillo (Fantasy Hot Read)

Chris Hogan (WR – NE) 
“Hogan has gone mostly forgotten in fantasy football, but let’s not forget just how high he was drafted this preseason when he was a starter. Now that Josh Gordon is out, Hogan will return to seeing plenty of snaps and has a chance at a big game versus the Bills. He doesn’t come without risk, of course, but the same can be said about anyone this far down so sign me up for his upside.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

John Brown (WR – BAL)
“The Ravens are going to have to throw the ball to hang in there against the Chargers and Brown is the receiver that Lamar Jackson needs to find. Jackson has targeted Brown nine times in the past two games, which resulted in three receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown. Given the Ravens’ need for points in this matchup, look for Jackson to target Brown downfield a couple of times creating potential for sleeper value if they can generate a score along with some decent yardage.”
– Tim McCullough (FantasyPros)

Tim Patrick (WR – DEN) 
“Patrick is 12-150 on 18 targets over the last two games. He’s big, fast, and has a matchup with the shaky Raiders, who have allowed nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers over the last six games. Patrick certainly isn’t an ideal start, but “deep sleeper” and “upside”? Sure!”
– John Halpin (RotoWire.com)

Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy owners this week?

Mike Evans (WR – TB) 
“Evans is someone who’s in a spot to disappoint owners this week. On the season, the Cowboys have allowed just six wide receivers to score more than 13.6 PPR points against them. Evans lines up on the left side of the formation about 50 percent of the time, which means he’ll see Byron Jones the most. He’s been the Cowboys top cornerback in coverage this year, as he’s allowed just a 50.9 percent catch rate, 11.6 yards per reception, and one touchdown on 55 targets.

Just one week after Evans became the first wide receiver to post 100 yards on the Ravens, Evans needs to be in lineups, but the matchup is another difficult one. Knowing they’ve allowed just three top-12 performances and seven top-24 performances through 14 games is impressive. Evans should be played as a middling to low-end WR2 this week.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN) 
“Cook finally broke the 100-yard mark in Week 15 and scored his first two rushing touchdowns of the 2018 season. However, I’m not trusting him to put up anything close to that against Detroit this week. While the Lions aren’t anyone’s idea of a tough rushing defense, they have only allowed 11 rushing TDs, and their 115.4 yards per game allowed is the league average. Cook won’t put up a goose egg, but I’d be surprised if he gave you much more than the 46 yards per game he averaged over his first eight games played this season. You will have to do much better for your Week 16 championship game, so don’t take the risk.”
– Tim McCullough (FantasyPros)

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) 
“Since his incredible start to the season with 100 yards in seven straight games, he has become almost invisible. After the firing of the offensive coordinator because he did not use Thielen to the best of his abilities lately, the same thing happened in the first game without him. Even in a blowout win against the Dolphins, he was not an integral part in the offensive game plan and it looks like Stefon Diggs is starting to recover his wide receiver one slot on the team. If Darrius Slay takes away Diggs on the outside, Thielen could have a solid game, but more likely it will be a heavy dosage of Dalvin Cook in this one.”
– Dominick Petrillo (Fantasy Hot Read)

Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE) 
“Landry has three receiving touchdowns all season. Over the last six games, he has averaged just 6.3 targets with 3.8 receptions, and has been targeted TWICE in the red zone. That doesn’t sound like a top-40 flex option.”
– John Halpin (RotoWire.com)

Alshon Jeffery (WR – PHI) 
“I’m a big believer in Jeffery when Nick Foles is his quarterback, but I’ve also played sports with the flu and it is not easy at all. Jeffery didn’t practice Wednesday because of an illness, and while it may be nothing by game time, there is also a chance that he is exhausted, missing snaps, and perhaps a step slow. This all isn’t enough for me to move him out of my top-30 wide receivers, but would certainly serve as a tiebreaker in a tough start/sit decision.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for giving their sleeper starts and duds for Week 16. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.

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