Week 15 proved to be one of the most frustrating fantasy playoff weeks in recent memory, with a lengthy list of star players failing at the worst possible time, sending many high-seeded teams home for the holidays. But if you’re here, that means you survived all the carnage, and for most of you, that means you’re one win away from a championship. Let’s jump right in and take a look at the surprises, stats, and trends entering Week 16 and how they might help your fantasy team hoist the trophy.

Import your team to My Playbook for instant Lineup advice

Drew Brees is averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt at home compared to just 6.9 on the road

Brees was one such star player to falter in Week 15 and considering his poor fantasy output over the past three games, unless you’ve had the luxury or foresight of starting someone else, you may be lucky to have made it this far. But those three subpar outings all came on the road, and the good news is Brees comes home to face Pittsburgh in Week 16. While practically any quarterback will have stronger numbers at home, Brees’ are particularly stark, as he’s averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt at home, while in away games that drops to a mere 6.9. Additionally, 20 of his 31 passing touchdowns have come in his six games at the Superdome, compared to just 11 in eight road starts.

The Steelers aren’t pushovers on defense, but they rank a modest 21st in passing DVOA, and this game has shootout potential with one of the week’s highest totals (53.5), one of just two above 50 points. Brees looks poised to rebound and bring home the championship for many teams in Week 16.

Derrick Henry logs season-highs in rushes (33) and snap rate (70%) in Week 15, and he’s now compiled 17 red zone carries across the last two games

Last week, we were cautiously optimistic about Henry’s chances of providing some value again in Week 15 against the Giants, but he once again smashed those expectations with another massive performance, this time rumbling for 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns on a season-high 33 carries and 70.0% snap share. With Dion Lewis only seeing seven rushes and three targets to go with a season-low 32.9% snap rate, it’s clear we’ve finally witnessed a changing of the guard in this backfield.

Best of all, the Titans are feeding Henry the ball relentlessly in the red zone, toting the rock inside the 20-yard line six and 11 times the last two weeks. In fact, Henry is now tied with Christian McCaffrey for the league’s fourth-most red zone carries on the season (39), trailing only Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, and Saquon Barkley.

Henry draws a fantastic matchup in Week 16 against Washington (29th in rushing DVOA), and he should enjoy another positive game script with the Titans sitting pretty as 10.5-point home favorites. Any lingering doubts about using Henry are long gone now, and he’s looking to be one of this season’s fantasy playoff MVPs.

Tevin Coleman explodes for a season-high 145 yards on just 11 carries, and Ito Smith is now out for the season

If you started Coleman last week, even in a great matchup against Arizona, chances are it was mostly out of necessity given Atlanta’s fantasy-killing shared backfield between Coleman and Smith. True to form, Coleman only saw 11 rushes, but he sure made the most of them, racking up 145 yards and a score, turning a desperation play into an unlikely fantasy savior. Considering the modest volume, we might normally write that off as one lucky week with few implications for Week 16, but Smith was injured towards the end of that game and has already been placed on injured reserve, ending his season.

No doubt, this should give Coleman a nice boost in volume, making him a far more reliable option this week against the Panthers. However, before you starting dreaming of a workhorse role, the Falcons are expected to give backup running back Brian Hill some work, and with nothing left to play for and Coleman due to be a free agent after this year, Atlanta may want to see what they have in Hill.

Still, between the Week 15 performance and Smith’s injury, Coleman is in a far better spot than he was a week ago, and regardless of how the backfield is split, he should see the majority of touches as the lead back. That alone puts Coleman on the RB2 map, which is more than you could have hoped entering the playoffs.

Josh Allen only rushes for 16 yards but tallies his sixth rushing touchdown, the most among quarterbacks

Allen didn’t rack up the rushing yards like he did the prior three games (16 yards), but he still came through against Detroit with two scores (one rushing, one passing), helping him to 19.8 fantasy points, his fourth straight game of 18 or more points. Despite the recent string of positive performances, Allen continues to show shaky results as a passer on an offense with little talent, as he threw for just 204 yards and completed 50% of his passes. Last week’s passing touchdown was also just his sixth in 10 games this season (nine starts). There’s no denying he remains risky as a 13.0-point road underdog with what amounts to a minuscule 16.00 implied total versus the Patriots.

At the same time, it’s hard to argue with the results of rushing quarterbacks in fantasy, and while Allen’s rushing output isn’t nearly as reliable as Lamar Jackson’s, Allen ranks second in rushing yards among quarterbacks (506) and leads them in rushing touchdowns (six). Although they’re big favorites, New England has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, so this isn’t a matchup to fear as well. If you have a fringe starter this week or have made it this far with Allen, it’s worth taking the plunge once again for championship week.

Corey Davis has seen just nine targets for five receptions and 54 yards over the last two weeks 

There’s no question Davis has been a frustrating player to use this season, sporting a stellar 26.8% target market share but still seeing six or fewer targets in seven-of-14 games this year. The trouble continues to be an offense that prefers to run whenever possible, ranking 31st in both passing play percentage and pass attempts per game. Davis’ talent has still enabled him to flash upside on occasion, but he’s been a total dud in the fantasy playoffs, catching a combined five-of-nine targets for just 54 yards the past two games.

Unfortunately, it looks unlikely to get any easier for Davis to produce with the sudden emergence of Derrick Henry. With Henry single-handedly steamrolling the Jaguars and Giants, Marcus Mariota has only thrown 24 and 20 times the last two weeks, respectively, leading to just 250 combined passing yards and leaving little room for fantasy points in the passing game. While inclement weather was perhaps partially to blame for last week’s play-calling, the fact remains the Titans are perfectly content riding Henry as long as he’s performing, and considering Tennessee is a double-digit favorite over Washington, it’s unlikely they’ll have any reason to change course this week. Maybe Davis can still find his way into the end zone this weekend, but ultimately the floor looks awfully low again, and it may be wise to look into other options.

Jared Goff has thrown seven interceptions to just one touchdown over the last three games

Since his epic Week 11 shootout with the Rams, Goff has been curiously off, being held under 210 yards in two of the last three games while tossing just one touchdown to seven interceptions over that span. Although an off-game on the road against the Bears is completely understandable, missteps against the Lions and Eagles are tougher to forgive, particularly given the pass-catching weapons at his disposal.

This week theoretically gets easier as 14.0-point road favorites against the woeful Cardinals, but this could easily turn into a Todd Gurley game where Goff isn’t needed to do much. Arizona is a dream matchup for running backs, ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed per game and allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing backfields in standard leagues. Furthermore, they’re the exact opposite against the pass, ranking fifth in passing yards allowed per game, while allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Goff is probably a big part of your team’s overall fantasy success this season, but the bounce back isn’t necessarily happening this week. Don’t feel like you need to stick with him if you have another option you’re debating between.

Get a free analysis of your team with My Playbook

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | RSS

Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.