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DRAFT NFL Lineup Advice: Week 16

DRAFT NFL Lineup Advice: Week 16

Here’s a look at 10-team DRAFT lineup advice for Week 16 NFL contests. I provide my rankings per position, a list of injuries to keep an eye on, and I conclude the article with a sample draft to give you a sense of how to approach your DRAFT contests.

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Quarterback

Player Team Opponent
1. Patrick Mahomes KC at SEA
2. Russell Wilson SEA vs KC
3. Deshaun Watson HOU at PHI
4. Drew Brees NO vs PIT
5. Matt Ryan ATL at CAR
6. Kirk Cousins MIN at DET
7. Andrew Luck IND vs NYG
8. Aaron Rodgers GB at NYJ
9. Josh Allen BUF at NE
10. Ben Roethlisberger PIT at NO

 
Russell Wilson once again had an abysmally slow start to the fantasy season. He averaged 15 fantasy PPG over the first four weeks of the season, which is surprisingly above his career average for the month of September. Looking back now his schedule over the first four games was no cakewalk, but this has been an ongoing theme in Russell’s career. He starts out slow and every year we question if he has enough weapons, or if his offensive line is too weak for him to have success. In PFF’s latest offensive line rankings, the Seahawks come in at 18th. This doesn’t sound good, but it is an improvement from the bottom five unit the team has rostered the prior couple of years. As Russell gets deeper into the season he really seems to turn it on. Here is a look at his career numbers by month for the regular season (thanks to Pro-Football-Reference).

Month Cmp Pass Att Pass Yds Pass TD Int Rush Att Rush Yds Y/A Rush TD Fmb FP FPPG
September 456 721 5096 34 14 133 610 4.59 0 19 348.84 14.535
October 517 786 6532 44 16 140 805 5.75 4 17 491.78 18.214
November 515 796 6399 50 13 177 1090 6.16 5 16 549.96 20.369
December 539 848 6719 60 19 178 1074 6.03 7 13 613.16 20.439

 
As defenses are figuring out how to stop some of the flashier offenses in the league, Wilson and the Seahawks sport a ground and pound type of offense that is rare in today’s NFL. On top of this, they have been much more efficient in the red zone with the passing game. Seattle should be able to move the ball on the Chiefs defense. In those December primetime lights, with the playoffs in the balance, I am betting on Russell Wilson.

Injury Watch

None

Running Back

Player Team Opponent
1. Ezekiel Elliott DAL vs TB
2. Christian McCaffrey CAR vs ATL
3. Saquon Barkley NYG at IND
4. Nick Chubb CLE vs CIN
5. Alvin Kamara NO vs PIT
6. Joe Mixon CIN at CLE
7. Chris Carson SEA vs KC
8. Phillip Lindsay DEN at OAK
9. Todd Gurley LAR at ARI
10. Marlon Mack IND vs NYG
11. Dalvin Cook MIN at DET
12. David Johnson ARI vs LAR
13. Jaylen Samuels PIT at NO
14. Tevin Coleman ATL at CAR
15. Tarik Cohen CHI at SF
16. Elijah McGuire NYJ vs GB
17. Jamaal Williams GB at NYJ
18. Sony Michel NE vs BUF
19. Mark Ingram NO vs PIT
20. James White NE vs BUF

 
Over the last three weeks Nick Chubb has averaged the 14th most fantasy PPG. This alone doesn’t seem impressive, but when you factor in his opponents this is a pretty respectable standing. These games were against the Texans, Panthers and Broncos. They rank 7th, 8th and 13th on the season in defense versus RBs. The Broncos are the lowest ranked team on the season of these three but have defended the RB much better in the second half of the season. Over the last five games the Broncos rank 6th in defense versus RBs. Now Chubb gets to face the Bengals who are ranked dead last in defense versus RBs on the season. Chubb faced them in Cincy back in week 12. While he didn’t have his most efficient day, he did get 31 touches and two TDs to propel him to 26.3 fantasy points on the week. At home this week Chubb should feast on the pitiful Bengals run defense.

Injury Watch

Todd Gurley is looking questionable for his game Sunday against the Cardinals. In a game where Gurley might not be needed to win, the Rams may choose to be cautious even if Gurley gets the green light to go.

James Conner is looking doubtful to play this weekend as he hasn’t practiced Wednesday or Thursday. If he is able to play replace Samuels with Conner in the rankings.

Wide Receiver/ Tight End

Player Team Opponent
1. Tyreek Hill KC at SEA
2. DeAndre Hopkins HOU at PHI
3. Michael Thomas NO vs PIT
4. Julio Jones ATL at CAR
5. Davante Adams GB at NYJ
6. Antonio Brown PIT at NO
7. Juju Smith-Schuster PIT at NO
8. Adam Thielen MIN at DET
9. Travis Kelce KC at SEA
10. Stefon Diggs MIN at DET
11. T.Y. Hilton IND vs NYG
12. Amari Cooper DAL vs TB
13. Mike Evans TB at DAL
14. Julian Edelman NE vs BUF
15. Alshon Jeffery PHI vs HOU
16. Robert Woods LAR at ARI
17. Brandin Cooks LAR at ARI
18. Zach Ertz PHI vs HOU
19. Jarvis Landry CLE vs CIN
20. Kenny Golladay DET vs MIN

 
The Seattle Seahawks rank 17th in defense versus WRs on the season. This is mostly due to the fact that they control the ball as well as any team in the league. Efficiency-wise Seattle hasn’t fared quite as well against WRs. They allow the 10th most yards per target to WRs on the season. With Kansas City now fighting for the division this is a must win-game for them. The difference between winning and losing the division could be home field through the playoffs or the fifth seed and likely no home games in the playoffs. The Seahawks are beatable deep this year and are tied for the 6th most passes allowed of 20+ yards on the season. This game has the highest over/under on the slate and Tyreek Hill has narrowly missed some long balls the last few weeks that would have drastically altered his fantasy points in those games. I am looking for Tyreek to get back on track this week and expect fireworks against the Seahawks.

Injury Watch

Julio Jones is on the injury report every week, but almost always plays. Check his status this weekend, as he now appears to be a game-time decision.

Juju Smith-Schuster was downgraded to limited practice on Thursday and couldn’t finish practice due to an injury he picked up on the day. Check his status. If he sits Antonio Brown should get all of the targets he can handle. Move AB up to #3 on the week and replace Big Ben with Baker Mayfield on the QB ranks.

Sample Draft

My pick: 9th

1st round – Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
Nick Chubb was my top ranked RB left on the board, and I am thrilled to take him with the No. 9 pick.

2nd round – Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
I was able to get my top ranked WR in the beginning of the 2nd round. I will take any of my RBs ranked 1-6 before I would take Tyreek, but the highest RB left on the board was my No. 7 RB Chris Carson.

3rd round – Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
Thielen was my top ranked WR left on the board and Coleman was my top ranked RB. Thielen is ranked much higher amongst my WRs, and I am okay taking any of my bottom-end RBs in the 5th round this week.

4th round – Russell Wilson (QB – SEA)
With RBs flying off the board in the first three rounds of this draft I decided to wait until the 5th round to take my 2nd RB. I took my highest QB still on the board here.

5th round – Jamaal Williams (RB – GB)
Jamaal Williams was my top ranked RB still on the board.

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Steven Roy is a correspondent for FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him on Twitter @Rockhead_Roy.

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