This week’s touted plays at DraftKings includes a three-man stack and a two-man stack. The individual pieces in the three-man stack will likely get some attention, but I believe using all three together will go low owned. The two-man stack features a do-it-all second-year back and a defense that’s been in great form of late after getting off to a sluggish start to the year. The picks are rounded out by a stud tight end in a favorable draw.
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Dak Prescott (QB – DAL): $5,600 vs. Eagles
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL): $8,600 vs. Eagles
Michael Gallup (WR – DAL): $3,700 vs. Eagles
The Cowboys have a team over/under total of 23.5 points, according to Pinnacle, this week. It’s not a standout total, and it’s likely the most common stack from Dallas will be Prescott and Amari Cooper. For full disclosure, I also like Cooper (spoiler alert, he’s on the FanDuel GPP lineup I tout this week). However, it’s time to start treating Prescott and Zeke like some of the other high-powered quarterback/running back stack duos due to the latter’s increased usage in the passing game.
Cooper’s played five games with the Cowboys, and Zeke caught four passes in Cooper’s debut in Week 9 against the Titans. In the four games since Zeke’s caught five or more passes in each game. The third-year back has bested 50 yards receiving in three of those five games, and he’s scored a touchdown in two of those games. According to RotoViz’s Game-Splits Tool, Zeke has per-game averages of 6.4 targets, 5.6 receptions, 49.6 receiving yards, 0.4 receiving touchdowns, 21.6 rushing attempts, 0.6 rushing touchdowns, and 106.2 rushing yards. He was already a stud before Cooper’s acquisition, but the biggest bump in Zeke’s value has come in the form of his receiving work. The increase in passing-game usage should serve him well against the Eagles. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Eagles just 21st defending backs in the passing game. The game script should also work in Zeke’s favor with the Cowboys favored by 3.5 points.
Predictably, Prescott has also played better with his new No. 1 receiver. He’s averaging 251.6 passing yards per game with Cooper this year compared to just 202.43 passing yards per game without him. Prescott’s also thrown only one interception in five games with Cooper and tossed four in seven games without him. He’s also thrown six touchdown passes and rushed for three scores with Cooper. In short, Dallas’ offense has been better with Cooper in it.
Gallup might seem like an odd inclusion with Cooper the clear-cut No. 1 receiver, but he’s also been better of late. Perhaps he’s improved working as a compliment, or perhaps he’s just improving as the year goes along in his first as a pro. Most likely, it’s a little bit of column A and a little bit of column B. The rookie wideout is coming off of one of his best games of the year with five receptions for 76 yards on seven targets. The receptions and targets represent new single-game highs. He’s seen five or more targets in four of five games with Cooper, and he’s twice shaken loose for more than 50 yards. Those aren’t world-beater benchmarks, but he’d seen five targets or fewer in the seven games prior to the arrival of Cooper. The matchup is tasty this week for the rookie, too. FO ranks the Eagles 27th defending No. 2 receivers. Philadelphia’s banged up secondary has coughed up the sixth most DraftKings points per game to receivers this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. There’s value abound this week, namely at running back. I think one way to differentiate from the pack is to use multiple big-ticket backs — more on that to immediately come.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): $8,100 at Buccaneers
Saints (D/ST – NO): $2,700 at Buccaneers
Kamara is my preferred second big-ticket back to pair with Zeke. He and the Saints are coming off a mini-bye of sorts after losing in last week’s Thursday Night Football contest to the Cowboys. They’ll go from facing one of the best defenses in the league to facing one of the worst. FO ranks the Buccaneers 30th overall in defense, 30th in run defense, and 23rd defending backs as receivers. The Saints no longer control their own destiny in regards to the top seed in the NFC, but they can still claim the top spot by continuing to win and getting some help along the way. It’s also unlikely they’ll overlook the Bucs after suffering one of their two losses this year to them back in Week 1. In that contest, Kamara torched them for 29 yards rushing, two touchdowns, nine receptions, 112 yards receiving, and one receiving score. Yes, Mark Ingram was out serving his suspension in that contest. However, I’m not worried about his presence in the rematch. Kamara matches up best against Tampa Bay’s shortcomings defending backs as receivers, and the second-year back is obviously no slouch as a runner either. The Saints are eight-point favorites in Tampa Bay this week, so game script could call for Kamara chewing up clock late.
The game script should also be great for a peaking defense. The Saints have allowed 17 points or fewer in four straight games. During that four-game stretch, they’ve held opponents to an average of 288.5 total yards of offense per game while forcing 11 turnovers and piling up 20 sacks. Jameis Winston hasn’t thrown an interception in back-to-back games, but he’s sporting a career-high 4.7% INT%, and he’s taken 18 sacks in seven games played. Considering he hasn’t played all seven games from start to finish, the sack total is all the more tantalizing for picking on with a defense that’s been pinning its ears backs and planting quarterbacks on their backsides with regularity of late.
Travis Kelce (TE – KC): $6,700 vs. Ravens
The Chiefs have a team over/under total of 30.5 points this week, and that’s tied for the second highest in Week 14. Their offense has been nearly unstoppable, and Kelce is my preferred piece of it this week. According to Lineups, Kelce’s 20 red zone targets this year are the highest at the position. If you sort for Week 13 at the linked page, you’ll see Kelce is coming off of a week in which he led the position with three red zone targets, too. His eight receiving touchdowns from the red zone are second to only Eric Ebron’s nine this year, so when the Chiefs get in scoring territory, expect Kelce to get some looks from Patrick Mahomes. He’s far from a touchdown-dependent option, though. Among tight ends this year, Kelce ranks second in targets (114), receptions (79), and receiving touchdowns (nine) while leading the position with 1,082 yards receiving and 90.2 receiving yards per game. Only two tight ends are averaging more than 80 receiving yards per game this season. Furthermore, only three tight ends are surpassing 60 receiving yards per game. The matchup is great for Kelce to add to his impressive totals this week. FO ranks the Ravens 25th defending tight ends in the passing game. Baltimore’s tied for the 12th most DraftKings points per game allowed to tight ends this year. Use some of the savings provided by some nifty bargain plays at running back and receiver this week to pony up for the game’s top tight end.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
