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DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 15

DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 15

A trio of grey beards — figuratively speaking — make up the backbone of this week’s touted DraftKings GPP plays. Collectively, they’re coming off of a big showing in a heartbreaking Week 14 loss and in a juicy matchup. A workhorse back is one of three standalone plays. He’s joined by a slot wideout who’s in the midst of a breakout campaign and a bargain running back who’s a risky play with enough upside to make the gamble worth it.

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Tom Brady (QB – NE): $5,900 at Steelers
Julian Edelman (WR – NE): $7,200 at Steelers
Rob Gronkowski (TE – NE): $5,800 at Steelers
Brady isn’t having a good year by his lofty standards (it’s not like he’s playing poorly, to be clear), but he’s coming off of his best game of the year in which he torched Miami for 358 yards passing, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He’s eclipsed 300 yards in back-to-back games, and in three games since New England’s Week 11 bye, he’s averaging 317.33 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and one interception. He and the Patriots have a team over/under total of 26.5 points, per Pinnacle.

The matchup looks favorable, too. Pittsburgh ranks 21st in pass defense, according to Football Outsiders (FO). Brady’s also thumped the Steelers in four meetings since Keith Butler became Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator in 2015. In those four games, Brady’s averaged 298 yards passing per game with 10 touchdown passes and just one interception while completing a staggering 72.6% of his passes.

Edelman also has a favorable matchup. New England’s slot receiver faces a defense that’s surrendered good to great games to fellow slot receivers Jarvis Landry (7-106-0 and 8-39-0), Mohamed Sanu (4-73-1), Tyler Boyd (7-62-2), Emmanuel Sanders (7-86-1), Keenan Allen (14-148-1), and Seth Roberts (5-76-0). For Edelman’s part, he’s having a solid season with 6.2 receptions and 69.0 receiving yards per game and four touchdown receptions in nine games.

The veteran is in good form as well having scored a touchdown or bested 100 yards of offense (I chose yards of offense instead of yards from scrimmage due to his crazy Week 9 game in which he totaled 71 yards receiving, 28 yards rushing, and 37 yards passing) in seven of nine games. One of the games he fell short of both was his first back from suspension, and he’s fallen short of 80 yards from scrimmage only one time in his last six games. In three games against the Steelers with Butler as the DC, Edelman’s averaged 10.67 targets, 9.33 receptions, and 91.67 receiving yards per game with one touchdown.

Everyone seems to be having fun taking jabs at Gronk’s blooper-reel quality defense on Miami’s game-winning touchdown last week, but don’t let that overshadow the fact he drilled the Dolphins for an 8-107-1 line. He’s caught a touchdown in two of his last three games, and he has a drool-inducing matchup. FO ranks the Steelers 31st defending tight ends. Pittsburgh’s coughed up the third-most points per game to tight end this year, per Pro-Football-Reference.

Furthermore, Gronk’s numbers against Butler’s defenses for the Steelers are the most jaw-dropping of this trio. In three games against Pittsburgh’s defense with Butler in charge, he’s averaged 6.0 receptions and 118.33 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns and a two-point conversion. Last December, he bullied them for a 9-168-0 line with a two-point conversion. I’ll be having tons of exposure to Gronk as a standalone play in addition to as part of this three-man stack.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL): $9,000 at Colts
Speaking of exposure to players, I expect when all of my GPP rosters are constructed, Zeke will be the player I use the most. Elliott was having a solid start to the season, but he’s kicked things up to a completely different level since Amari Cooper was added to the fold. According to RotoViz’s Game-Split tool, Zeke’s averaged 6.67 receptions, 7.5 targets, 54.5 receiving yards, and 107.33 rushing yards per game while scoring five touchdowns.

Elliott’s impressive receiving chops are especially important against the Colts. The Colts have yielded the most receptions (93) and fifth-most receiving yards (717) to running backs this year. FO ranks them 26th defending the position in the passing game. They’ve been stout against the run ranking fifth, per FO, but Zeke’s one of the NFL’s best backs and running behind a line ranked ninth in adjusted line yards.

Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN): $5,700 vs. Raiders
The aforementioned Steelers aren’t the only team that’s had some issues defending the slot. FO ranks the Raiders second defending No. 1 receivers, but No. 1 receivers who primarily play the slot have given them some issues. Keenan Allen (8-90-0 and 6-57-1), Larry Fitzgerald (2-23-2), Jarvis Landry (4-34-1), and Emmanuel Sanders (4-96-0) have all played pretty well against the Raiders despite Oakland being so stingy with No. 1 receivers.

Boyd’s having a breakout third season, and he’s played well with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. In Driskel’s two starts, Boyd’s averaged 7.0 targets, 4.5 receptions, and 74.5 receiving yards per game. He also reeled in a touchdown grab against the Browns after Driskel came in for an injured Andy Dalton. The Bengals have a solid team over/under total of 24.5 points against a Raiders squad that’s in a letdown spot traveling across the country after a comeback victory against the Steelers in Oakland last week.

Kenneth Dixon (RB – BAL): $3,500 vs. Buccaneers
Let me start by suggesting that it’s wise to take any coach talk with a grain of salt. Having said that, John Harbaugh mentioned he expects Dixon’s role to grow the rest of the year. Honestly, he’s earned it. In two games since being activated from IR, he’s rushed for 96 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries while adding 27 yards on a pair of receptions. His touchdown came on his only red zone touch last week, and he scored a touchdown in Week 1 against the Bills on his only other red zone touch.

At the least, his versatility and success would theoretically make him the best goal-line back. That would be a sweet gig to have against a Buccaneers team tied for the most touchdowns (20) allowed to running backs this year. The Ravens are going to continue to start Lamar Jackson even with Joe Flacco now healthy, and that bodes well for Baltimore’s rushing attack. Game script should also be favorable for Dixon and the rushing attack with the Ravens serving as 7.5-point favorites at home.

Dixon’s touched the ball exactly nine times in back-to-back games, so if he received even a tiny uptick in touches along with the goal-line duties, he’d have potential to provide a massive ROI on a salary that’s only $500 above the minimum for a running back or receiver. Having bargain guys who smash value is a good way to win big in GPPs, so I’ll take a chance with Dixon on a few GPP squads this week and advise you do the same.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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