DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 14 (Full Slate)

by Brad Richter | @rotopilot | Featured Writer
Dec 5, 2018

Zach Ertz may be worth paying up for this weekend

Week 14 of the NFL season looks like it is shaping up as the week of the cheap RB in DFS. There are already numerous cheap running back options that have opened up and there could even be more before kickoff on Sunday. Yes, I’m fast-forwarding to Sunday already because the Thursday night matchup between the Jaguars and Titans could be a snoozer from a DFS perspective. Here is an early look at my cash game core for this week along with a few players to keep an eye on as the week progresses.

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Thursday Option

Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC): $6,800 @ TEN
While the Thursday night game figures to be a low-scoring affair with the lowest Vegas total of the entire week, somebody has to score some points, don’t they? Both defenses are potential options as they have reasonable salaries under $3k, but I do also like Leonard Fournette in this spot. Fournette should be fresh after serving a one-game suspension last week and his workload has been huge in the three games he has played since returning from injury with 26.7 touches per game while finding the end zone at least once in all three games. Fournette also has a fairly reasonable salary for his workload and touchdown equity to consider in full-week rosters.

Early Cash Game Core

Drew Brees (QB – NO): $6,600 @ TB
Some people might shy away from Drew Brees this week citing his poor road splits as the Saints travel to Tampa to take on the Buccaneers. Sure, he has finished with under 17 DraftKings points in four road games this season but those have come against solid defensive units including the Vikings, Ravens, Giants and Cowboys last week. In his two road games against poor pass defenses (Bengals, Falcons), Brees has lit them up for an average of 36.2 DK points per game. The Buccaneers qualify as a poor pass defense giving the up the third most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season trailing only, you guessed it, the Bengals and Falcons.

Jeff Wilson (RB – SF): $3,800 vs. DEN
Cheap RBs will be the name of the game this week when constructing DFS lineups. Jeff Wilson will be one of the names on a growing list of options to save money at the RB position. Matt Breida saw limited action last week before leaving with an injury which opened the opportunity for Wilson to shine with 134 total yards on 15 carries and eight receptions. His salary only went up $800 from the minimum for this week’s matchup with the Broncos where Breida has already been ruled out. While the Broncos defense is solid, they still gave up 151 total yards on 18 carries and eight receptions to the Bengals RBs last week. Sounds awfully similar to Wilson’s numbers last week. If Wilson can even come close to those numbers on Sunday, he will smash his cheap salary.

Julio Jones (WR – ATL): $7,900 @ GB
With so much value at RB, we should be able to pay up at other spots in our lineup such as WR. Julio Jones had a down week last week with just two receptions against the Ravens strong pass defense. Jones will get a much easier opponent on Sunday against the Packers in Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. Jones has had a lot of success against them in the past including posting nine receptions for 180 yards and two TDs in a 2016 playoff game and five receptions for 108 yards in a regular season game last season. Do keep an eye on the newswire to make sure his hand injury is nothing serious.

Zach Ertz (TE – PHI): $6,400 @ DAL
I don’t believe that I have paid up at TE in my cash game lineup all season, but this might be the week to do it. A bunch of the “value” TEs from week’s past have seen their salaries rise significantly such as Eric Ebron which almost puts him in the same price range as a guy like Zach Ertz. Ertz has provided consistent production all season long with at least 17 DraftKings points in eight of his 12 games this season. He destroyed the Cowboys with 14 receptions for 145 yards and two scores in their previous meeting this season. While we shouldn’t expect that kind of production from Ertz in the rematch, we can expect his typical eight-plus targets with touchdown potential which gives him a high floor that very few TEs possess.

Players to Watch

Jaylen Samuels (RB – PIT): $3,700 / Stevan Ridley (RB – PIT): $3,300 @ OAK
James Conner has already been ruled out for the Steelers Week 14 matchup with the Raiders. This will open up the backfield touches for Jaylen Samuels and Steven Ridley. Early indications are that the backs will share the workload in a plus-matchup against the Raiders who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Samuels should be the primary pass catcher out of the backfield as he has already been getting work out of the backfield over the last few weeks. The carries, however, could lean toward Ridley getting more work. Continue to monitor the talk out of Pittsburgh leading up to kickoff to see if they tip their hand on the potential distribution of touches. My early lean is Samuels on DraftKings due to his passing game involvement.

Ty Montgomery (RB – BAL): $4,000 / Kenneth Dixon (RB – BAL): $3,200 @ KC
Gus Edwards has been the lead back in Baltimore over the last three weeks averaging over 20 carries per game. He came into the last game with an ankle injury which he played through, but he also limped off the field late in the game, so keep an eye on his status. Even if Edwards plays he hasn’t been involved in the passing game at all and with a matchup against the high-flying offense of the Chiefs, the Ravens could be forced to pass more often this week if they fall behind. That would open up more targets for Ty Montgomery who received seven targets last week. Kenneth Dixon also returned from the IR last week to get nine touches.

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Brad Richter is a Featured Writer and correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.

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