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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 14

DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 14

It’s Week 14 of the NFL season which means we have plenty to reflect on. This is my favorite time of the year to compare what’s going on now in the fantasy landscape to how it looked in Week 1. Just last week my value quarterback was Lamar Jackson, a player who was third on the depth chart at the beginning of the preseason. Gus Edwards, Mark Andrews, and Courtland Sutton will all find themselves in my article this week, but they were nowhere to be found on draft boards before the season.

The fact that fantasy football is such an ever-changing landscape is what makes it so exciting to follow. Players you’ve come to rely on over the years can flat out let you down, but unsung heroes can come out of nowhere to carry you to glory. This week I’ve picked out three guys that most people would refer to as “old reliables,” while the other three names may not even be recognized by many. It’s a thing of beauty. Time for Week 14.

Last week’s results (point values are for full-point PPR):

QB: Lamar Jackson – 16.5
RB: Theo Riddick – 8.8
RB: Tevin Coleman – 2.1
WR: Josh Doctson – 8.1
WR: Seth Roberts – 5.5
TE: Trey Burton – 0.0

I’m willing to forget last week ever happened if you are. Okay, sounds good. On to Week 14.

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Quarterback

Tom Brady (NE): $5,800 at MIA
There has been a lot of talk about Brady’s decline and although it’s definitely true, let’s remember that we’re talking about a decline from fantasy greatness, not fantasy relevance. He’s still a top-15 fantasy quarterback on the season, and he’s still posted 14.9 or more fantasy points in nine of 12 games this year. Needless to say, he’s still a guy you want to use in a good matchup. This week qualifies as one considering the last three quarterbacks to play the Dolphins have combined to average 23.5 fantasy points, all scoring at least 18.1.

Brady passed for 274 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in his first meeting with Miami and now gets to play a warm-weather game in December. As a lifetime Dolphins fan and Florida native, I’ve seen way too much of Brady to think this is going to end well for the Miami defense.

Running Backs

Adrian Peterson (WAS): $4,800 vs. NYG
Considering what Peterson did to the Giants the first time he played them, I’m surprised his price is so low. Maybe it has something to do with the fact that it’s December and he’s 33 (perfectly reasonable), but he should have enough left in the tank to take advantage of this mouth-watering matchup one more time.

In Week 8, AP shook loose for 156 total yards and two touchdowns, which was actually only the third best running back performance the Giants have allowed over the past six weeks if you can believe it. Every running back to face the Giants that has led their backfield in touches in that six-week span has scored at least 16.2 PPR points. Peterson’s touches are nowhere near the numbers in the mid-20s he was seeing earlier this year, but I definitely think he will see enough to return value in what is a great matchup.

Gus Edwards (BAL): $4,500 at KC
What an entrance to the NFL for Gus Edwards, who has averaged 105 rushing yards per game in his first three career starts. This week he takes on the Chiefs, who have been running back heaven for most of the season. Over the past five weeks, running backs who lead their backfield in touches against KC have averaged 19.7 PPR points per game. Will Edwards lead this backfield in touches? Considering he’s averaged more than 20 carries per game over the past three weeks, I think it’s safe to say the answer is yes.

Lamar Jackson will start again this week, and mobile quarterbacks do wonders for the success of their running back. I’d expect Edwards to produce solid yardage totals this week with a good chance at a touchdown.

Wide Receivers

Golden Tate (PHI): $4,800 at DAL
Because he was traded to Philadelphia after already playing the Cowboys once, this will actually be Tate’s third matchup with Dallas this year. He’s coming off his best game as an Eagle, posting 7-85-1 against the Redskins last week. The Cowboys gave up 9.9 points to Mohamed Sanu in Week 11 and then 13.6 points to Trey Quinn in Week 12, two receivers who, like Tate, play almost exclusively from the slot.

Keith Kirkwood’s 30-yard touchdown last week on Thursday night also came out of the slot, as he’s starting to fill that big slot role that Brandon Coleman had for so many years in New Orleans. I believe Dallas is susceptible enough to slot receivers for Tate to take advantage, especially considering the momentum he has right now coming off his Week 13 performance.

Courtland Sutton (DEN): $4,500 at SF
Sutton is a guy that is dangerously close to that breakout game we’ve all been waiting for, and last week was the closest we’ve gotten to it yet this season. Sutton posted a 4-85-1 line against Cincinnati in Week 13, season highs in both fantasy points and yards. On Wednesday in practice, Emmanuel Sanders went down with a torn Achilles which frees up over eight targets per game in the Broncos offense. Sutton should be a major beneficiary of that, and it should start this week in San Francisco.

The 49ers have given up an average of 18 PPR points to the last three primary perimeter receivers they’ve faced, each scoring at least one touchdown or eclipsing 100 yards. There isn’t a cornerback on the 49ers roster that can match up with the physicality that Sutton brings to the field (6’3, 216 lbs). This is his best chance yet to deliver a monster performance.

Tight End

Mark Andrews (BAL): $2,800 at KC
You definitely want to play tight ends against the Chiefs, but Baltimore makes it hard for us to pick which one to play. For most of the year it’s been Mark Andrews, and last week was no different as he ran the most routes of the tight end group by a lot. Most people would be shocked to find out that Andrews is actually a top-20 tight end in full-point PPR leagues this year as he’s produced at least 7.1 PPR points in five of his last six games.

Kansas City has allowed at least 10.1 PPR points to each of the last four tight ends they’ve faced, most recently giving up a 7-100-1 performance in Week 13 to Jared Cook. Playing with a rookie quarterback in a solid matchup, don’t be surprised to see Andrews post his best performance of the season.

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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.

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