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DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 15

DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 15

Before I started playing fantasy football, I was more of a college sports guy. College football was my passion, and college basketball was a close second. My point being, the NFL was only my third favorite sport to watch at best. Then I started playing fantasy football. As soon as I started playing, I became invested in almost every team for the purpose of tracking their players, injuries, and statistics. I couldn’t get enough of it. Today, the NFL is just about all I watch, and my springs and summers are spent counting down the days until it returns. I thank fantasy football for this. It makes the NFL more exciting and interactive. It gives people who already love football another reason to love it, and it gives people who aren’t into football an entertaining way to dive into the sport. All I can say is that if it weren’t for fantasy football, my days would feel a lot longer. I’m glad that I’ve been able to find such a great pastime and passion.

Last week’s results (point values are for full-point PPR):

QB: Tom Brady – 26.6
RB:
  Adrian Peterson – 2.9
RB:  Gus Edwards – 6.7
WR: Golden Tate – 1.7
WR: Courtland Sutton – 3.3
TE: Mark Andrews – 0.0

Another frustrating week. Let’s hope you listened to me about Tom Brady but ignored me for all of the other positions.

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Quarterback

Tom Brady (NE): $5,900 at PIT
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’m going back to the well with Brady this week after he delivered a big performance in Miami. His price has remains below $6,000, and he gets another favorable matchup this week. After being picked apart by opposing offenses in the beginning of the year, the Pittsburgh secondary turned it around for a good chunk of the season. However, they’ve begun to go in the opposite direction over the last few weeks. They’ve allowed at least 15.6 fantasy points to each of the last three quarterbacks they’ve played, including a 299-yard, two-touchdown performance to Philip Rivers two weeks ago. When the Patriots and Steelers meet, it’s usually a shootout, and Brady always shows up for big games like this. I love his upside this week, and he comes with an affordable price.

Running Backs

Doug Martin (OAK): $4,700 at CIN
If I was a running back and had to pick one defense to play against, it would probably be Cincinnati. Twelve of the 13 starting running backs that have faced the Bengals this year have scored 10.7 or more PPR points. There’s almost no chance that Martin finishes below double-digits this week. There’s also the opportunity for a big ceiling, considering the huge performances they’ve allowed as of late. 28.9 PPR points from Phillip Lindsay, 27.8 from Nick Chubb, 26.2 from Alvin Kamara, 25.2 from Mark Ingram, just to name the most recent ones. When looking for a running back that can win you some serious cash, you want to find one with both a floor and a ceiling. Martin is the ideal blend of those two and has scored a touchdown in three consecutive weeks.

Gus Edwards (BAL): $4,400 vs. TB
Edwards was a little disappointing last week, but he still received 16 carries. His matchup this week is ideal, and if he gets similar volume he should feast. Check out some of the most recent rushing stat lines against this Bucs defense: Saquon Barkley 27-142-2, Matt Breida 14-106, Christian McCaffrey 10-106. Just last week Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for 103 yards on the ground on 25 total carries, with Ingram getting into the end zone. Normally, I’d be a little wary recommending Edwards because of his lack of involvement in the receiving game, but this week looks to be as good a bet as any to eclipse 100 rushing yards. It’s important to have a short memory in fantasy football, so if Edwards let you down last week give him another shot in Week 15.

Wide Receivers

Dante Pettis (SF): $4,400 vs. SEA
Over the last few weeks, Dante Pettis has taken the 49ers receiving corps by storm, establishing himself as their number one option. The Seahawks have struggled to slow down primary perimeter receiving options this year. Each of the last six have finished with 10 or more PPR points. One of those six was Dante Pettis himself, as he delivered a huge Week 13 performance in Seattle posting 129 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions. It wouldn’t be wise to expect another monster performance like that one, but we know what he’s capable of. It’s a solid matchup at home, and he’s shown a nice rapport with Nick Mullens in their time on the field together. It’s not often you find someone with this much upside at this price, and especially one who has a relatively high projected target volume.

Michael Crabtree (BAL): $4,300 vs. TB
It’s been tough to figure out who Lamar Jackson’s favorite target has been in the games he’s started. Crabtree and John Brown have each received 17 targets, but Crabtree has done more with them, so we’ll consider him their primary perimeter option for now. Against Tampa, that’s a very good thing, as each of the last five primary perimeter options have scored 10.5 PPR points or more. Those five receivers have combined to average 16.4 PPR points in those five games. Crabtree has definitely had a disappointing season, but the Bucs provide a situation in which he should be able to produce. The Bucs secondary has been a matchup to target all season, and the Ravens are in must-win mode right now. Crabtree will benefit if Jackson capitalizes on the upside his matchup presents.

Tight End

Cameron Brate (TB): $4,000 at BAL
Brate had a very difficult matchup with New Orleans last week and came through with two touchdowns. This week he gets a much easier test, as the Ravens have been pretty forgiving to tight ends as of late. The last three tight ends to play Baltimore have combined to average 15.8 PPR points per game. These numbers makes sense. Baltimore’s cornerback group is among the best in the league, so with receivers being shut down for the most part, production has to be funneled to the tight ends. With the Ravens run defense being solid as well, the Winston to Brate connection will be one of the only ways for Tampa to move the ball. I love his price this week for someone who’s set up really well for top-12 numbers.

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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.

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