I remember one afternoon in late August a handful of years back, I heard my dad singing a Christmas carol in the kitchen. “It’s the most wonderful time of the year,” he sang. He noticed I was confused so he looked at me and said, “not Christmas, football season.” Football season was right around the corner, and I agree with him at this point in my life that it’s the most wonderful time of the year. I have nothing against Christmas, it’s my favorite holiday, but if I could have one gift this year it would be another season of football effective immediately. I prefer tournaments to ornaments, and hearing the whistle blow rather than mistletoe. Corny rhymes I know, but I had to at least show off my Christmas story telling chops a little bit. It’s sad that the fantasy football season is just about over, but the holiday cheer should help lighten the mood. I wish everyone a successful Week 16, and of course a very merry Christmas. Spread love and be safe.
Last Week’s results (point values are for full-point PPR):
QB: Tom Brady – 13.2
RB: Doug Martin – 3.9
RB: Gus Edwards – 16.4
WR: Dante Pettis – 13.3
WR: Michael Crabtree – 0.0
TE: Cameron Brate – 1.9
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Quarterback
Russell Wilson (SEA): $6,100 vs. KC
The Chiefs secondary has definitely improved from what it was at the start of the season, but it still isn’t a matchup to avoid. In fact, the past four weeks have been reminiscent of how they began the year. Every quarterback to play Kansas City over the past four weeks has finished with at least 18.5 fantasy points. The average point total over that four game span is 24.1. Russell Wilson’s hot streak colliding with Kansas City’s cold streak means fantasy goodness. Remember that 18.5 is the magic minimum number for quarterbacks against the Chiefs lately. Wilson has hit that number in 9 of his last 10 games. Another strange stat is that Wilson has zero games this year in which he’s passed for only one touchdown. He has two games with zero touchdowns, but in every other game he’s thrown at least two. I definitely don’t see the Chiefs holding Wilson to no scores, so I’d expect multiple touchdowns and a very solid effort from Russ.
Running Backs
Sony Michel (NE): $4,900 vs. BUF
After a few disappointing performances, this is a good spot for Michel to turn things around. I don’t expect this game to be all that close, especially with New England coming off two consecutive losses, so the game script should be ideal for running the ball. There have been eight straight games in which a running back has scored 11.7 PPR points or more against the Bills. All of those running backs led or co-led their backfield in touches. James White shouldn’t be needed much in this game, and Michel has still out-touched Rex Burkhead since his return from injury, so there’s no reason not to expect that again this week. For a guy under $5,000 dollars, Michel is a lock for double digit carries and also gets work on the goal line. What’s not to like?
Gus Edwards (BAL): $4,400 at LAC
This is my third straight week recommending Gus Edwards, and I can’t figure out why his price is still so cheap. I’m not complaining though, as we get a screaming bargain on a starting running back that’s averaging over 19 carries a game since he’s become the starter. His matchup this week is phenomenal, as he takes on a Chargers run defense that has been shredded during the second half of the season. Since their Week 8 bye, LA has surrendered an average of 20.6 PPR points per game to opposing starting running backs. No running back has totaled less than 9.9 PPR points. Just last week they allowed 123 total yards and two touchdowns to Damien Williams. Edwards is in a steady situation and has a mouthwatering matchup this week. He’s an absolute steal.
Wide Receivers
Robert Foster (BUF): $4,900 at NE
I never in a million years would have guessed that I’d be writing about Robert Foster at any point this season, but here we are. What a story this rookie is, an undrafted free agent out of Alabama who was only re-promoted to the active roster a little over a month ago. Since then, he’s had 94 yards or more in four of his five games, and also has scored two touchdowns. As of now right now, it’s hard not to say he’s the undisputed number one option in Buffalo. This week against New England is interesting because they do a good job of slowing down the number one option from the opposing sideline. The question is, do they consider Foster worthy of that much attention. I don’t believe they’ll use Stephon Gilmore in shadow coverage, which means the potential for a solid outing should be there for Foster. The past three number one options (and their PPR point totals) to face New England were Stefon Diggs (9.9), Kenny Stills (27.5), and Antonio Brown (14.9). Clearly, the Patriots didn’t think Stills was deserving of substantial attention, while the other two were. My guess is that they view Foster in the Stills category rather than the Brown category (most people do), so I’m willing to take a chance on the big-play receiver.
Anthony Miller (CHI): $4,100 at SF
If I were Matt Nagy, I would involve Anthony Miller this week a lot more than the past few weeks. After a hot stretch during the middle of the season, Miller has been an afterthought as of late. However; I think Nagy is a smart enough coach to target San Francisco’s big weakness–the slot. In the past five games for the 49ers, a slot receiver has scored a touchdown against them in everyone. Sterling Shepard, Adam Humphries, and Daesean Hamilton each scored a touchdown apiece. Doug Baldwin has played San Francisco twice in that span, and scored three total touchdowns in his two games. All in all, slot receivers have averaged 16.1 PPR points per game against the 49ers over the past five weeks. We know Miller’s floor is low, but most guys at $4,100 have that type of downside. What we like this week is Miller’s upside, and his potential to deliver solid value.
Tight Ends
C.J. Uzomah (CIN): $3,300 at CLE
Tight end is my least favorite position to research for because it’s just so hard to feel confident in anyone. I have a feeling this is gonna be the year we look back on long from now as the year that tight ends were removed from fantasy leagues. They really aren’t much more predictable than kickers. Regardless, we have to do what we can, and this week we may have something with Uzomah. Over the last four weeks, Cleveland has allowed an average of 11.8 PPR points per game to the tight end position, which this season is borderline elite production (I wish I was being sarcastic). Each of those tight ends finished with at least 8.3 PPR points, one of them being Uzomah himself who scored 9.9. It looks like we can expect a decent floor from Uzomah this week, which is all you’re really looking for at his price.
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Nick Swantek is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @nick_swantek.
