Bruce Matson discusses which players have seen their dynasty value rise or fall in Week 15.
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Week 15 is over and in the books. This week is crucial because it’s championship week in fantasy football. Whether you are in your league’s championship game or not, you can still do things to increase the value of your dynasty team. By analyzing the risers and fallers from the previous week, we can determine the recent market trends which will give us an advantage over our league-mates in trade negotiations. Dynasty is 365 days a year, and there’s always something you can do to increase the value of your team.
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Risers
Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
Williams had the biggest game of this career on Thursday night, catching seven passes for 76 yards and two touchdowns and he also had one carry for a 19-yard touchdown. He quietly has nine touchdowns on the season and he has three games with two or more touchdowns. Williams is just 24 years old and his dynasty value is on the rise.
Going into the season fantasy owners doubted Williams’ ability to produce at a high level. With Keenan Allen being the main target hog in the offense, it’s hard to fully trust that Williams can be a consistent producer for your fantasy team. He’s currently touchdown dependent, and his volatile production will make it hard for you to fully trust him in your lineup.
His dynasty ADP is at 74, making him the 35th wide receiver off the board. Look for him to rise in the rankings in the offseason if he finishes the season strong. Williams’ price tag will increase in the coming months, making him no longer a buy-in dynasty. On the contrary, he was a first-round pick who has the potential to develop into one of Philip Rivers‘ favorite targets.
Marlon Mack (RB – IND)
Mack had a very successful performance against a stout Dallas Cowboys’ defense, rushing for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Injuries slowed him down earlier this season, but now that he’s back to full health he’s starting to live up to his full potential. He profiles as a bell-cow back, and he could be the Colts’ three-down workhorse back if he continues to produce as he did on Sunday.
This was Mack’s third 100-yard game of the season. His volatile production is stifling his dynasty value. He’s a player that you could potentially buy on the cheap in the offseason. If the price is right, then you might as well make the purchase, because he has the size and athleticism to be a high-quality RB2 in fantasy. It doesn’t hurt that he’s tethered to Andrew Luck and the Colts’ high-volume passing offense.
Jordan Howard (RB – CHI)
It wasn’t long ago that Howard was considered one of the most valuable running backs in dynasty. Things changed this season. His teammate, Tarik Cohen, made a name for himself this year, proving to be one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL. However, Howard has proved that there’s still some juice left in his legs. Against the Packers last week, he managed to rush for 60 yards and a touchdown. The week prior, he ran the ball for 101 yards against the Los Angeles Rams.
Howard’s dynasty value is at an all-time low. He’s still capable of being productive on any given week. We just need to temper our expectations. Howard isn’t Ezekiel Elliott or Alvin Kamara, but he can still deliver value to your lineup. If you can get him at the right price, then he’s definitely worth trading for in the offseason.
Fallers
Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG)
Since the beginning of November, Shepard has only accumulated 150 yards receiving. Against the Titans on Sunday, he could only reel in two passes for 37 yards. With limited upside, Shepard is starting to prove that he might be too risky to invest in for dynasty. It’s quite possible that there are too many mouths to feed in New York, limiting his workload and hurting his potential to provide consistent fantasy production.
Shepard is still a quality receiver. His week to week fantasy output could be hot or cold depending on game flow. Even though his upside is limited, he can still help your dynasty team. Shepard is a good guy to have on your roster as a backup up to fill the voids from bye weeks and injuries. His price tag should be at its lowest point this offseason, making him a cheap acquisition via trade. If you need depth on your roster, then you might want to think about trading for Shepard.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB)
For several years, Rodgers was one of the top quarterbacks in dynasty. He was consistent, provided plenty of upside and rarely produced a dud in the box score. Now, he’s 35 years old and things are starting to fall apart. He still flashes greatness, but he’s not set-it and forget-it as he was a few years prior. In Week 15 against the Chicago Bears, he completed just 59.52 percent of his passes for 274 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. This was not the performance we are accustomed too from Rodgers.
I’m telling you right now, don’t be surprised if Rodgers is ranked outside the top five by many dynasty rankers this offseason. He’s a depreciating asset whose value is currently on the decline. Like Drew Brees and Tom Brady, they can be very effective in fantasy but not deliver QB1 value on the trade market. Rodgers has plenty of years left in the tank, but his dynasty value is slowly on the decline.
If you have a win-now team and you need a good quarterback to help get your team over the top, then Rodgers might be the right investment for you. He still has the potential to deliver high-level results and he’s going to be discounted in the trade market. Rodgers is no longer going to command top-three value and he shouldn’t. If your dynasty is currently rebuilding, then you might want to wait until your roster is more complete before you decide to pay up for an elite level quarterback. Either way, depending on your team’s goals, Rodgers can still help your dynasty team.
Zay Jones (WR – BUF)
Jones is a trap play for many dynasty owners. During the entire season, he led all receivers on the team in snap share and with a 23 percent target share. Even though he was the most targeted wide receiver on the team, he couldn’t turn those targets into production on a regular basis. Sure, he had a few big games, but he never proved himself to be reliable on a regular basis. The Bills are more than likely are going to add some talent to the wide receiver position either through the draft or free agency which will create a lot of uncertainty in his long-term player value.
He more than likely doesn’t have the gusto to be a WR1 at the NFL level. This year was his opportunity to prove that he could carry the load for an NFL team and he didn’t do so. Nonetheless, he’s an inexpensive dynasty asset who could provide depth for your team. Keep expectations low and don’t overpay for him.
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