Welcome to FanDuel Market Watch: Week 17. Yes, it’s the last week of the regular season, but this isn’t the end for us, dear readers. The market watch will continue on for the entirety of the NFL playoffs, so this isn’t goodbye. There’s still a lot of football to be played and a lot of value to be found.
But before we can get to all that post-season excitement, there’s still the small matter of a ridiculously exciting regular-season finale. So without wasting any time, let’s take a look at some of the slate’s biggest value fluctuations.
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Quarterbacks
Nick Foles (PHI): $7,600 @WAS (+$1,600)
Mr. Clutch did it again in Week 16. Indeed, Foles helped the Eagles maintain their post-season hopes, leading the team to a thrilling 32-30 victory over the Houston Texans. Foles torched the Texans’ dominating defense to the tune of 471 yards, four touchdown passes, and one interception, leading countless fantasy players to success in the process.
Can he repeat those heroics against Washington? Someone must think so because Foles has seen his value skyrocket by $1,600 in Week 17. While the matchup is decidedly average, it’s pretty hard to argue with the results he’s produced in must-win games over the last year. Playing him is a pretty big gamble at QB12 cost (tied), but if you think he can deliver another “Philly Special” on the road this week, then I won’t try to talk you out of it.
Philip Rivers (LAC): $8,000 @ DEN (-$1,000)
A legitimate MVP candidate, Rivers had a rough outing in Week 16 against the Ravens’ elite defense, throwing for a mere 181 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. It was an incredibly frustrating performance for a signal caller who had tossed multiple scores in 13 of his first 14 contests of the season. This week, he faces a Broncos defense that, while not nearly as stingy as the Ravens, has only allowed 16.7 FanDuel points per contest to oppossing passers (10th fewest).
Still, when these two teams met in Week 11, Rivers threw for 401 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in a losing effort. I expect him to post reasonable totals this time around as well. Furthermore, his value has plummeted by $1,000 this week and you can have him in your lineup for QB8 cost. It’s a huge game for the Chargers as it relates to playoff seeding, and I expect Rivers to bounce back.
Running Backs
C.J. Anderson (LAR): $6,200 vs. SF (+$1,700)
Welcome back to the NFL. That’s how you show them that you never should have been without a team in the first place. Signed by the Rams earlier in the week, Anderson stepped in and made a surprise start for the injured Todd Gurley, and did he ever deliver. Anderson ran for 167 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries against Arizona in Week 16, and was positively dominant in stretches, averaging 8.4 yards per carry and leading the team to victory.
The Rams are Anderson’s third stop in 2018 after spending time with the Panthers and Raiders, but it’s important to remember that he ran for 1,007 yards as a Denver Bronco in 2017. The dude can play, and he’s always been insanely underrated. In Week 17, he could be in line to make another start if Gurley sits again, and if he does, he has a favorable matchup against a 49ers defense that allows 23.0 FanDuel points per contest (11th most) to opposing runners. Yes, his value has skyrocketed by $1,700, but he can still be started for RB30 cost. Keep an eye on Gurley’s playing status this week, but if he remains sidelined, fire up Anderson with confidence.
Chris Carson (SEA): $6,400 vs. ARI (-$1,100)
I know I’m the one writing this column, but I think someone’s going to have to explain this one to me. Carson is coming off an enormous 27-carry, 116-yard rushing yard, two touchdown performance, has established himself as a quality NFL starter, has run for 1,029 yards and eight touchdowns in only 13 contests, and is averaging a healthy 4.5 yards per tote.
The former seventh-rounder has also accumulated 71 carries, 325 rushing yards, and four touchdowns over his last three games, and even chipped in six receptions for 29 yards in one of those contests. This week he draws an Arizona defense that has allowed 27.7 FanDuel points per contest (third most) to opposing runners. Oh, and head coach Pete Carroll has stated that the Seahawks won’t rest their starters in Week 17.
So, why has Carson’s value dropped by $1,100 this week? I don’t know, and I don’t care. At only $6,400, this represents an incredible steal. A high-end starting tailback with an enormous workload in an elite matchup? I will take that value all day. There’s not much more to say here. Carson may be the week’s best value play.
Wide Receivers
Robby Anderson (NYJ): $7,000 @ NE (+$1,100)
It took a while, but Anderson has found some impressive chemistry with rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. In Week 16, Anderson lit up the Packers’ defense with nine catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. Over the course of Darnold’s last three appearances, Anderson has accumulated 20 receptions for 312 yards and three touchdowns. That’s high-end WR1 production, right there. Could it continue on in Week 16?
The Patriots present an average draw for opposing wideouts, but you can bet Bill Belichick will devote a great deal of time to stopping Anderson. Belichick almost never allows himself to get beaten by his opposition’s top weapon, and Anderson only caught two passes for 22 yards when these teams faced off earlier in the year. Nonetheless, that was with Josh McCown under center, and Anderson and Darnold have a good thing going right now. As such, it’s easier to feel good about the rematch. The $1,100 value incline is steep, but if you have confidence in this duo then proceed as normal.
D.J. Moore (CAR): $5,300 @ NO (-$1,000)
In my opinion, Moore is a breakout receiver just waiting to happen. With his ridiculously impressive athletic profile (seriously, check this out) it’s only a matter of time before he takes the NFL by storm. However, in spite of flashing elite ability as a rookie, his emergence is going to have to wait until 2019, at the earliest.
After a four-week stretch of seeing eight-plus targets per game, Moore has only accumulated four catches for 31 scoreless yards over his last two contests. One came with an injured Cam Newton under center, while Week 16 saw Taylor Heinicke make his first career start. Unfortunately, Heinicke sustained an elbow injury and is already done for the season. That puts rookie third-string quarterback Kyle Allen in position to make his first NFL start in Week 17.
Clearly, the Panthers are struggling and Moore has seen his numbers plummet as a result. It should come as no surprise that his value has seen a $1,000 decline as well. Technically, New Orleans has allowed the most FanDuel points per game to opposing wideouts (36.8), but this is the same team that held him to two catches for 12 yards in Week 15. If New Orleans decides to rest their starters (a legitimate possibility), the matchup becomes more intriguing, but without knowing that at press time, I wouldn’t consider Moore a viable option. Next year though, watch out, because he has the talent to be a game-breaker for many seasons to come.
Tight Ends
C.J. Uzomah (CIN): $5,500 @ PIT (+$500)
With A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert on injured reserve, and Tyler Boyd sidelined out with a knee ailment, Uzomah stepped up and paced the Bengals in targets (five), catches (four), receiving yards (49), and touchdowns (one) against the Browns en route to an overall TE7 finish in Week 16. As such, he’s seen his value climb by $500 as the Bengals prepare for a Week 17 showdown against the divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers.
While Uzomah may not be the highest-upside option at the position, he’s quietly received five or more targets in five of his last six games. With Boyd’s Week 17 status unclear (logically, it would make sense to keep him out of the lineup), Uzomah should once again prove to be Jeff Driskel’s top target. The Steelers have been a favorable draw for tight ends, permitting an average of 11.4 FanDuel points per contest (tied for eighth most) to the position, so another solid performance could be in order.
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $5,800 vs. NYJ (-$800)
Sigh. Yes, we’re talking about Gronk once again in the “Market Watch,” but it was either him or George Kittle and we’ve discussed Kittle in so much depth here, I suspect we could all name his favorite foods, hobbies, and television programs. In all seriousness, Gronk’s strange season continued in Week 16, as the former All-Pro failed to log a single reception on three targets against a Bills team he has historically dominated.
I don’t know if he’s fully healthy, and it doesn’t appear that Tom Brady is fully healthy, either. Unfortunately, Gronk isn’t currently a startable fantasy option, even at his considerably depressed cost. Brady has tossed one or fewer touchdowns in six of his last eight contests, and the Pats have become run-heavy, logging 47 runs and only 25 passes a week ago. Furthermore, the Jets allow the fifth-fewest FanDuel points per game (7.4) to opposing tight ends. I love watching Gronk play, but for the time being, keep him on the sidelines.
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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.
