After a disappointing showing, I go back to the well with a quarterback/tight end pairing that’s treated me well before and is in a prime bounce-back spot. The duo is actually joined by a third teammate who was one of the only bright spots in last week’s loss. That stack is joined by another that features a running back and defense/special teams (D/ST) correlation play and a wide receiver on the same squad who should have a hand in helping stake his defense to a sizable lead. The game’s best receiver, another No. 1 wideout, and an electric second-year back round out the touted plays below.
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Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (CLE): $7,500 vs. Panthers
Mayfield suffered a rookie hiccup last week with three interceptions, but he managed 16.88 FanDuel points thanks to passing for 397 yards and a touchdown. He’d have cracked 20 fantasy points if not for Antonio Callaway fumbling a 75-yard reception when he changed directions and cut into a defender instead of continuing on his path to the pylon. Regardless, Mayfield’s in a great spot to get back on track. Prior to last week’s misstep, he’d tossed multiple touchdown passes in five straight games. He and the host Browns have a team over/under total of 23.5 points, per Pinnacle, and I think they go over that mark against a Carolina defense that doesn’t travel and features coaching changes this week. Carolina’s coughed up 27.83 points per game and 358.83 yards of offense per game in six road tilts this year. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Panthers 28th defending the pass. Head coach Ron Rivera taking over defensive play-calling duties this week is unlikely to fix all that ails Carolina’s struggling defense.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara (NO): $8,300 at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been creamed by running backs to the tune of the fifth-most FanDuel points per game allowed to them, according to Pro-Football-Reference. FO ranks Tampa Bay 30th defending the run and 23rd defending backs in the passing game. The Saints are well rested and likely looking to make a statement after their Thursday Night Football loss last week. Furthermore, the Buccaneers handed the Saints their only other loss this year, so New Orleans isn’t going to be overlooking their division foe. The Saints have the highest team over/under total of the week at 32.5 points. Kamara already pummeled the Bucs for 38.6 FanDuel points in Week 1, and he should torch them again this week.
Justin Jackson (LAC): $4,500 vs. Bengals
If the Chargers are dumb enough to play Melvin Gordon this week, heads should roll. That probably feels like an exaggeration, but it would be idiotic for them to rush Gordon back in a game they’ll win handily without him with an important showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs in the Thursday Night Football game in Week 15 on tap. With that in mind, Jackson’s big second half last week coupled with Austin Ekeler‘s ineffectiveness when stretched out beyond his change-of-pace duties in both games Gordon’s missed this year should award the former the opportunity to play the Gordon role. He’s priced at the minimum for a running back and facing Cincinnati’s pathetic run defense. The Bengals have coughed up the most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year, and FO ranks them 28th defending the run. Cincinnati will have their hands full against an offensive line that FO ranks seventh in adjusted line yards. Toss in that the Chargers are the biggest betting favorites of the week at 14 points and the Bengals are making the long trip west to Los Angeles, and game script is yet another reason to love Jackson.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown (PIT): $8,800 at Raiders
Brown’s in the midst of another huge year. Among receivers, he ranks first in targets (135), eighth in receptions (81), 10th in receiving yards (1,028) and receiving yards per game (85.7), and first in touchdown receptions (12). The Steelers will be without James Conner this week, and that could lead to a bump in usage for the guy who already leads receivers in targets. The Steelers have a robust team over/under total of 30.5 points. There’s plenty to like here.
Keenan Allen (LAC): $7,900 vs. Bengals
I didn’t mention it in Jackson’s write-up above, but the Chargers also have a robust team over/under total of 30.5 points. There’s plenty of scoring to go around against Cincinnati’s horrific defense. FO ranks the Bengals 27th defending the pass and 16th defending No. 1 receivers. Allen’s coming off of his best game of the year with a 14-148-1 line with a two-point conversion, too. He’s scored a touchdown in four straight games, caught six or more passes in five straight, and bested 70 yards receiving in four of his last five games. Allen should continue his heater against the hapless Bungles.
Jarvis Landry (CLE): $5,800 vs. Panthers
Landry snapped a four-game streak of 50 yards or fewer by hauling in six passes for 103 yards. This week, he’ll take aim at a Panthers defense that’s been embarrassed by slot receivers. According to PlayerProfiler, Landry’s run 58.7% of his routes from the slot this year. Landry should be the next slot receiver to roast Carolina’s secondary.
Tight End
David Njoku (CLE): $5,300 vs. Panthers
As bad as Carolina’s been against slot wideouts, they’ve been worse against tight ends. FO ranks them 31st defending the position. The Panthers are tied for the fourth-most FanDuel points allowed to tight ends this season. Njoku squandered a favorable matchup last week, but he did see a half-dozen targets. From Week 4 through Week 7, Njoku bested 50 yards receiving in each contest. He’s been alternating good and bad outings since starting with that Week 7 game. In other words, he’s bounced back from other poor showings and should do so this week.
Flex
Amari Cooper (DAL): $6,900 vs. Eagles
It’s usually wise to proceed with caution regarding receivers traded in-season, but Cooper’s taken nicely to being Dallas’ No. 1 receiver. He’s reached at least 75 yards receiving or caught a touchdown in four of five games with the Cowboys. He has one blowup game in that stretch that saw him torch the Redskins for an 8-180-2 line in Week 12. He then caught all eight of his targets for 75 yards last week. Cooper’s already faced the Eagles once with the Cowboys, and he parlayed 10 targets into six receptions for 75 yards in just his second game with the team. Now that he has more rapport developed with Dak Prescott, the ceiling greatly exceeds his Week 10 showing against this week’s opponent. Philadelphia’s banged up secondary has ceded the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to receivers.
Defense/Special Teams
Chargers (LAC): $4,600 vs. Bengals
I’ll keep this short and sweet with the Chargers D/ST. They’re the biggest betting favorites this week as 14-point favorites, and they’re hosting a Bengals team that’s sans Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. If that’s not bad enough for the Bengals, their left tackle position is in shambles. Starter Cordy Glenn missed last week’s game with a back injury that’s continued to sideline him in practice this week, and his backup, Jake Fisher, has already been placed on injured reserve. The scoring ceiling is massive for the Chargers D/ST this week.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
