Let me preemptively inform you that I didn’t accidentally copy and paste last week’s roster over to this week. I did, however, decide to go back to a three-man stack that fell well short of my expectations last week. They’re joined by a rookie running back who’s playing excellent football in a cushy matchup.
The receivers include a guy who’s been playing much better of late with the return of his club’s starting quarterback and one who changed teams via trade and has seen an uptick in targets as he settles in. The tight end spot on this week’s team is filled by one of the co-highest priced options. Flex is filled by a feature back in a great spot. The club is rounded out by a defense that’s nearly minimum salary and favored at home after an upset win last week.
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Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL): $7,300 vs. Buccaneers
I underestimated Prescott’s road struggles last week in large part due to his success since the acquisition of Amari Cooper. That turned out to be a mistake, but he returns home this week, where he’s played much better throughout his career. He’s averaged approximately 24 more passing yards per game and seven more rushing yards per game at home, and he’s thrown 35 touchdown passes and rushed for nine touchdowns in 23 games compared to 27 touchdown passes and eight rushing touchdowns in 23 games on the road. The third-year quarterback’s home/road splits have been even more severe this season, as NFL.com’s Fantasy Football Managing Editor Graham Barfield tweeted. Rotoworld Senior Football Editor Evan Silva piggybacked on Barfield’s tweet noting that Prescott also has huge splits favoring playing man-coverage defenses rather than zone-coverage defenses. Silva notes in his quote-retweet that the Buccaneers have switched from a zone defense with Mike Smith to a man defense with interim defensive coordinator Mark Duffner.
Additionally, as I pointed out last week, Prescott’s production has surged with his new No. 1. receiver. Dallas has a team over/under total of 27.5 points, according to Pinnacle, and the matchup is soft, too. The Bucs have allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this year and the fifth-most rushing yards to them this year, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,800 vs. Buccaneers
In addition to having a robust team over/under total, the Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites. Zeke’s game-script proof, but as a commanding home favorite, the upper-echelon back should be treated to a hefty workload against a run defense that Football Outsiders (FO) ranks 31st. Predictably, it’s a good fantasy matchup as Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth most FanDuel points per game. As for Elliott’s credentials, in seven games with Cooper, according to RotoViz’s game-splits tool, he has per-game averages of 22 rushing attempts, 7.57 targets, 6.71 receptions, 104.43 rushing yards, and 52.57 receiving yards with eight touchdowns.
Nick Chubb (CLE): $7,900 vs. Bengals
Chubb has thrived as Cleveland’s feature back. In eight games since Carlos Hyde was traded, he has per-game averages of 18.38 rush attempts, 85.62 rushing yards, 2.75 targets, two receptions, and 18.75 receiving yards per game along with eight touchdowns. He’s kicked things up even higher since Freddie Kitchens took over as the offensive coordinator.
In six games with Kitchens as Cleveland’s OC, Chubb has per-game averages of 18.5 rushing attempts, 90 rushing yards, 2.83 targets, 2.33 receptions, and 23.33 receiving yards along with seven touchdowns. One of those six games was against the Bengals in Cincinnati, and the rookie back steamrolled them for 84 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries along with three receptions for 44 yards and another score through the air. The Bengals have hemorrhaged the most FanDuel points per game to running backs this season, and the host Browns are commanding 10-point favorites with a team over/under total of 26.5 points.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper (DAL): $7,000 vs. Buccaneers
I’m running it back with the full three-man stack of Prescott/Elliott/Cooper. Cooper’s salary received a $400 bump from last week, but he’s still only the 15th-most expensive receiver. In seven games with the Cowboys, Cooper has per-game averages of 8.57 targets, 6.3 receptions, and 96.3 receiving yards along with six receiving touchdowns. He should have little trouble against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s tied for the seventh-most FanDuel points per game allowed to wideouts, and FO ranks them 29th defending No. 1 receivers.
Robby Anderson (NYJ): $5,900 vs. Packers
Sam Darnold returned from injury in Week 14, and no one has benefited more than Anderson. In two games since Darnold’s returned, Anderson’s posted lines of 4-76-1 on seven targets and 7-96-1 on 11 targets. He’s hauled in all five of his touchdown grabs this year from the rookie signal caller.
The No.1 receiver for the Jets should find the going easy against a Green Bay defense that FO ranks just 22nd defending No. 1 receivers. The Packers have yielded the third-most FanDuel points per game to receivers this year. Anderson’s likely to be a chalky option, but his salary and upside are hard to ignore and fit this team perfectly.
Demaryius Thomas (HOU): $5,300 vs. Eagles
DT was targeted only four times in his first two games with the Texans. He’s received at least five targets in his last four games, and he set new single-game highs with the Texans last week with eight targets, six receptions, and 59 yards receiving. It does warrant mentioning that those highs might not be entirely a product of growing rapport with Deshaun Watson.
Lamar Miller left last week’s game early with an ankle injury. The floor is low for Thomas, but there’s upside in using the veteran receiver against a defense FO ranks 27th defending No. 2 receivers. Philadelphia’s secondary has permitted the second-most FanDuel points per game to receivers this year. The Texans could also be forced to throw it a bit more than usual as road underdogs — albeit only 2.5-point underdogs.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (PHI): $7,400 vs. Texans
Beyond the top options at tight end, the position is extremely weak and volatile. Ertz qualifies as one of the top options at the position, and he has a juicy matchup. Among tight ends this year, he ranks first in targets (136) and receptions (101), third in receiving yards (1,038) and receiving yards per game (74.1), and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (six).
The presence of Nick Foles under center isn’t crippling to the stud tight end’s value, either. In eight games with Foles since last year, according to RotoViz’s game-splits tool, he has per-game averages of 9.12 targets, 6.25 receptions, 57.75 receiving yards, and 0.38 touchdowns. Spinning back to the matchup, Houston’s allowed the 13th-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. FO ranks the Texans 29th defending tight ends.
Flex
Marlon Mack (IND): $7,000 vs. Giants
Mack ate against the Cowboys last week. He ran wild for 139 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries and secured his only target for a 10-yard reception. This week, he faces an even softer NFC East foe. FO ranks the Giants 19th defending the run, and they’ve been an extremely giving defense to backs since trading Damon Harrison. In seven games since trading “Snacks,” they’ve allowed 118 rushing yards or more to six opponents.
Last week was the most pathetic showing since trading him. The Giants allowed 170 yards rushing to Derrick Henry on 33 carries and 35 yards rushing on seven carries to Dion Lewis. Mack should cream them running behind an offensive line that FO credits for the sixth-most Adjusted Line Yards. He should also have a dreamy game script with the Colts favored by 10 points.
Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles D/ST (PHI): $3,200 vs. Texans
The Eagles are flying high after winning in Los Angeles against the Rams last week. They held the Rams to 23 points, recorded a sack, and forced three turnovers. They’re back home this week, and as I noted in DT’s write-up above, they’re 2.5-point favorites. The Texans have a non-threatening team over/under total of 22.5 points, and if they fall behind, Philadelphia’s D/ST will have huge sack upside. Watson’s 10.8% sack percentage is the third-highest among qualified quarterbacks this year, and he’s taken four or more sacks in four straight games and five of his last six.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
