Geoff Lambert looks at value plays for Week 15.
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Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (OAK) $6,800 @ CIN
Don’t look now, but Carr has been a decent fantasy option in three of his last four games. The one that he wasn’t was against the No. 1 defense in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens. He has thrown the ball at least 31 times over the last five games, and he gets a great matchup with the Bengals this Sunday. The Bengals are ranked 27th in DVOA against the pass (per FootballOutsiders).
Marcus Mariota (TEN) $7,100 @ NYG
Last week’s game was a bad fantasy week for Mariota, but any time your RB has over 200 yards rushing and scores four TDs, the QB isn’t going to have a ton of fantasy points. The previous two games, however, he had over 300 total yards (rushing and passing) and a pair of TD passes in both. This week he gets a matchup with the 24th ranked team against the pass in DVOA, and they are dead last DVOA against the No. 1 WR — a Mariota/Corey Davis stack could be an interesting tournament play.
Running Backs
Jaylen Samuels (PIT) $5,500 vs. NE
Samuels was the cash-game chalk last week, and if it wasn’t for the fourth quarter — in a comeback effort — he would have been a bust. He had a total of 18 touches and was most effective in the passing game, which, in a game against the Patriots, will be a valuable facet of his fantasy outlook. It’s worth monitoring James Conner’s status, as there is a chance he suits up. But if Conner is out, Samuels is still a good play at $5,500.
Chris Ivory (BUF) $4,500 vs. DET
Fellow RB LeSean McCoy left early in last week’s game and has yet to practice this week. I expect McCoy to miss this game, leaving the door opened for Ivory to get the bulk of the carries. The Lions are 20th DVOA against the run and at the minimum salary of $4,500, Ivory could see 20-plus touches.
Wide Receivers
Robert Foster (BUF) $5,400 vs. DET
Sticking with that Lions/Bills game, I called out Robert Foster in my last column and he did not disappoint — seven receptions for 104 yards. The Lions are 31st against the pass this season, and I would expect the Lions’ star cornerback, Darrius Slay, to be on Zay Jones. The No. 2 WR playing against the Lions this year have averaged nearly six catches and 60 yards per game, which ranks them 30th in DVOA.
Trent Sherfield (ARI) $4,500 @ ATL
Sherfield had more targets (7) in last week’s game than he had all season up to that point (6), and with Chad Williams expected to miss another game and Christian Kirk on IR, he could easily see another seven-plus targets this week. The Falcons are terrible against the pass, ranked 30th, and give up over seven receptions per game to No. 2 WRs.
Tight Ends
Blake Jarwin (DAL) $4,700 @ IND
The Cowboys have found their new Jason Witten…okay, I may be getting a little carried away. However, Jarwin had seven targets last week, catching all seven for 56 yards. The Colts are 24th in points allowed to TEs and they just allowed Houston TE Ryan Griffin to have his best game of the season last week.
Defense
Dallas Cowboys $3,400 @ IND
Yes, I know the Colts can put up points, but the Cowboys shut down the Saints offense just a few short weeks ago. They have at least two sacks and have forced a turnover in each of their last six games. All this, and they are still cheaper than defenses like the Raiders, 49ers and Giants — and only $100 more than the Cardinals that have to play Atlanta in Atlanta.
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