If you’re reading this, congratulations. Either you’re in the fantasy playoffs, you have a chance to get in after this week, or you really love projections. I’m all three, depending on the league.
Bench strategy changes dramatically this time of year. With no more bye weeks, depth is less important. You don’t need that 4th wide receiver if you know you won’t play him as long as your first three are healthy. Your bench should be for three kinds of players, all of which contribute to your chances of winning your league:
- Lottery ticket players like Giovani Bernard or Malcolm Brown. Two weeks ago, this would have been Spencer Ware, but he already hit the lottery.
- Players you are stashing to play matchups in future weeks. This is mostly QBs and D/STs. If you have the space and think you’ll be alive in week 16, pick up New England (at home vs BUF) now.
- Players you are stashing to box out your opponent. If Cameron Brate is riding your bench because you have Travis Kelce, but your first-round opponent just has Jesse James, consider holding on to Brate so he can’t be used against you.
With a mind towards stashing D/STs, I ran projections for each remaining week of the season. Because I rely on Vegas lines for points allowed and lines aren’t typically available more than a week out, I had to use another method for weeks beyond this one. I used year-to-date Vegas lines and actual scoring to estimate what the lines would be for weeks 15 onward. This is an even more imperfect method, but is good enough for identifying which teams we want to target.
Teams are ordered by their total projection for the rest of the season, but that’s not super important. The important thing is carrying teams that complement each other.
| Team | Total | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | |||||||||
| Rank | Proj | Rank | Opp | Proj | Rank | Opp | Proj | Rank | Opp | Proj | Rank | Opp | Proj | |
| DEN | 1 | 27.0 | 3 | @SF | 7.7 | 4 | CLE | 7.2 | 5 | @OAK | 7.1 | 27 | LAC | 5.1 |
| LAR | 2 | 26.9 | 21 | @CHI | 5.8 | 15 | PHI | 6.4 | 2 | @ARI | 7.5 | 5 | SF | 7.1 |
| DET | 3 | 26.8 | 5 | @ARI | 7.4 | 1 | @BUF | 7.7 | 22 | MIN | 5.9 | 22 | @GB | 5.9 |
| WAS | 4 | 26.6 | 16 | NYG | 6.5 | 11 | @JAC | 6.7 | 6 | @TEN | 7.0 | 15 | PHI | 6.4 |
| TEN | 5 | 26.4 | 1 | JAC | 8.0 | 12 | @NYG | 6.7 | 16 | WAS | 6.3 | 24 | IND | 5.4 |
| JAC | 6 | 26.1 | 14 | @TEN | 6.6 | 16 | WAS | 6.3 | 11 | @MIA | 6.6 | 12 | @HOU | 6.6 |
| DAL | 7 | 26.1 | 7 | PHI | 7.1 | 24 | @IND | 5.5 | 9 | TB | 6.9 | 10 | @NYG | 6.7 |
| NE | 8 | 26.1 | 13 | @MIA | 6.7 | 28 | @PIT | 4.6 | 1 | BUF | 7.5 | 4 | NYJ | 7.3 |
| HOU | 9 | 25.9 | 23 | IND | 5.6 | 3 | @NYJ | 7.4 | 20 | @PHI | 6.1 | 9 | JAC | 6.8 |
| MIN | 10 | 25.9 | 19 | @SEA | 6.0 | 5 | MIA | 7.0 | 15 | @DET | 6.3 | 14 | CHI | 6.5 |
| SEA | 11 | 25.7 | 12 | MIN | 6.7 | 9 | @SF | 6.8 | 30 | KC | 4.4 | 1 | ARI | 7.8 |
| GB | 12 | 25.6 | 17 | ATL | 6.4 | 20 | @CHI | 6.1 | 4 | @NYJ | 7.1 | 21 | DET | 6.0 |
| IND | 13 | 25.6 | 25 | @HOU | 5.5 | 14 | DAL | 6.5 | 8 | NYG | 6.9 | 8 | @TEN | 6.8 |
| NYG | 14 | 25.3 | 10 | @WAS | 6.8 | 10 | TEN | 6.8 | 23 | @IND | 5.5 | 16 | DAL | 6.3 |
| CHI | 15 | 25.2 | 26 | LAR | 5.1 | 13 | GB | 6.5 | 3 | @SF | 7.3 | 18 | @MIN | 6.2 |
| KC | 16 | 25.0 | 20 | BAL | 5.8 | 26 | LAC | 5.3 | 13 | @SEA | 6.6 | 3 | OAK | 7.3 |
| BUF | 17 | 25.0 | 2 | NYJ | 7.9 | 18 | DET | 6.2 | 32 | @NE | 4.0 | 7 | MIA | 6.8 |
| ATL | 18 | 24.3 | 27 | @GB | 4.9 | 2 | ARI | 7.5 | 26 | @CAR | 5.3 | 11 | @TB | 6.6 |
| MIA | 19 | 24.0 | 28 | NE | 4.1 | 22 | @MIN | 5.6 | 12 | JAC | 6.6 | 2 | @BUF | 7.6 |
| NYJ | 20 | 23.6 | 9 | @BUF | 6.8 | 8 | HOU | 6.9 | 21 | GB | 5.9 | 31 | @NE | 4.0 |
| CLE | 21 | 23.6 | 24 | CAR | 5.5 | 17 | @DEN | 6.3 | 14 | CIN | 6.4 | 26 | @BAL | 5.3 |
| PHI | 22 | 23.6 | 18 | @DAL | 6.1 | 29 | @LAR | 4.5 | 10 | HOU | 6.8 | 20 | @WAS | 6.1 |
| NO | 23 | 23.4 | 8 | @TB | 6.9 | 23 | @CAR | 5.6 | 27 | PIT | 5.1 | 23 | CAR | 5.8 |
| LAC | 24 | 23.3 | 4 | CIN | 7.4 | 30 | @KC | 4.4 | 25 | BAL | 5.3 | 19 | @DEN | 6.2 |
| ARI | 25 | 23.1 | 11 | DET | 6.7 | 25 | @ATL | 5.4 | 29 | LAR | 4.7 | 17 | @SEA | 6.3 |
| BAL | 26 | 22.8 | 29 | @KC | 3.9 | 7 | TB | 7.0 | 28 | @LAC | 4.9 | 6 | CLE | 7.0 |
| SF | 27 | 22.4 | 22 | DEN | 5.6 | 19 | SEA | 6.2 | 18 | CHI | 6.2 | 29 | @LAR | 4.4 |
| CIN | 28 | 22.3 | 30 | @LAC | 3.4 | 6 | OAK | 7.0 | 7 | @CLE | 7.0 | 28 | @PIT | 4.9 |
| PIT | 29 | 22.2 | 6 | @OAK | 7.3 | 31 | NE | 4.3 | 31 | @NO | 4.1 | 13 | CIN | 6.5 |
| CAR | 30 | 20.0 | 15 | @CLE | 6.6 | 32 | NO | 4.0 | 24 | ATL | 5.5 | 32 | @NO | 4.0 |
| TB | 31 | 19.5 | 32 | NO | 2.8 | 27 | @BAL | 5.2 | 17 | @DAL | 6.3 | 25 | ATL | 5.4 |
| OAK | 32 | 19.5 | 31 | PIT | 3.4 | 21 | @CIN | 5.9 | 19 | DEN | 6.1 | 30 | @KC | 4.1 |
What About This Week?
With six teams in the top tier, and seven with implied point totals below 20, you should have little trouble finding a defense this week.
| Rank | Team | Opponent | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Own% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | TEN | JAC | 37.5 | -4.5 | 16.5 | 2.56 | 1.48 | 0.16 | 8.04 | 47% |
| 2 | BUF | NYJ | 38.5 | -3.5 | 17.5 | 2.47 | 1.63 | 0.16 | 7.93 | 30% |
| 3 | DEN | @SF | 43.5 | -5.5 | 19 | 2.63 | 1.5 | 0.19 | 7.69 | 81% |
| 4 | LAC | CIN | 48 | -14 | 17 | 2.34 | 1.35 | 0.16 | 7.42 | 72% |
| 5 | DET | @ARI | 40.5 | -2.5 | 19 | 2.59 | 1.44 | 0.17 | 7.41 | 7% |
| 6 | PIT | @OAK | 51.5 | -11 | 20.25 | 2.76 | 1.4 | 0.18 | 7.3 | 70% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 7 | DAL | PHI | 43 | -4 | 19.5 | 2.74 | 1.34 | 0.14 | 7.06 | 27% |
| 8 | NO | @TB | 56 | -8 | 24 | 2.56 | 1.79 | 0.14 | 6.93 | 46% |
| 9 | NYJ | @BUF | 38.5 | 3.5 | 21 | 2.5 | 1.36 | 0.18 | 6.82 | 10% |
| 10 | NYG | @WAS | 41 | -4 | 18.5 | 2.14 | 1.29 | 0.18 | 6.8 | 9% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | ARI | DET | 40.5 | 2.5 | 21.5 | 2.78 | 1.36 | 0.13 | 6.72 | 14% |
| 12 | SEA | MIN | 45 | -3.5 | 20.75 | 2.56 | 1.39 | 0.13 | 6.69 | 82% |
| 13 | NE | @MIA | 48 | -8 | 20 | 2.24 | 1.37 | 0.16 | 6.65 | 74% |
| 14 | JAC | @TEN | 37.5 | 4.5 | 21 | 2.66 | 1.25 | 0.16 | 6.64 | 57% |
| 15 | CAR | @CLE | 47 | -1.5 | 22.75 | 2.57 | 1.47 | 0.15 | 6.58 | 43% |
| 16 | WAS | NYG | 41 | 4 | 22.5 | 2.89 | 1.35 | 0.12 | 6.54 | 38% |
| 17 | GB | ATL | 48.5 | -6 | 21.25 | 2.77 | 1.23 | 0.12 | 6.41 | 74% |
| 18 | PHI | @DAL | 43 | 4 | 23.5 | 2.78 | 1.19 | 0.15 | 6.11 | 67% |
| 19 | MIN | @SEA | 45 | 3.5 | 24.25 | 2.73 | 1.21 | 0.16 | 6.01 | 87% |
| 20 | KC | BAL | 53 | -6.5 | 23.25 | 2.22 | 1.34 | 0.14 | 5.84 | 71% |
| 21 | LAR | @CHI | 52.5 | -3 | 24.75 | 2.34 | 1.4 | 0.14 | 5.83 | 96% |
| 22 | SF | DEN | 43.5 | 5.5 | 24.5 | 2.47 | 1.27 | 0.12 | 5.63 | 6% |
| 23 | HOU | IND | 49 | -4.5 | 22.25 | 1.86 | 1.33 | 0.14 | 5.63 | 94% |
| 24 | CLE | CAR | 47 | 1.5 | 24.25 | 2.23 | 1.36 | 0.11 | 5.52 | 10% |
| 25 | IND | @HOU | 49 | 4.5 | 26.75 | 2.79 | 1.32 | 0.1 | 5.48 | 39% |
| 26 | CHI | LAR | 52.5 | 3 | 27.75 | 2.41 | 1.37 | 0.11 | 5.1 | 98% |
| 27 | ATL | @GB | 48.5 | 6 | 27.25 | 2.48 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 4.89 | 15% |
| 28 | MIA | NE | 48 | 8 | 28 | 1.85 | 1.28 | 0.09 | 4.14 | 38% |
| 29 | BAL | @KC | 53 | 6.5 | 29.75 | 2.07 | 1.19 | 0.11 | 3.93 | 72% |
| 30 | CIN | @LAC | 48 | 14 | 31 | 1.96 | 1.14 | 0.11 | 3.44 | 11% |
| 31 | OAK | PIT | 51.5 | 11 | 31.25 | 1.77 | 1.35 | 0.07 | 3.35 | 2% |
| 32 | TB | NO | 56 | 8 | 32 | 1.82 | 1.18 | 0.06 | 2.78 | 3% |
Tell Me About the Top Picks
- TEN vs JAC: Jacksonville was already a team to target before they benched Blake Bortles, and they didn’t disappoint last week, allowing the Colts D/ST to score 13 fantasy points. The Titans have put up good numbers in good matchups (including 13 points against Jacksonville in week 3).
- BUF vs NYJ: Of the teams with great matchups, the Bills have the best actual defense and they’re at home. Buffalo is a great stream, especially for Bears owners that don’t want to use them against the Rams this week.
- DEN @ SF: Denver is the only team that I think is usable in all three standard playoff weeks (14-16), and they kick it off with the lost-season 49ers.
- LAC vs CIN: With Andy Dalton out, A.J. Green out and Hue Jackson in, the Bengals are suddenly exactly the type of team we want to target. The Chargers should take advantage at home.
- DET @ ARI: The Lions are a great team for the fantasy playoffs because they get Arizona this week and Buffalo in week 15. If that’s your plan, I recommend stashing someone else now for week 16, since the top choices that week (NE, LAR, CHI) are highly owned, and there aren’t a ton of other options. If Green Bay (@NYJ in week 16) gets dropped due to their matchup with Atlanta this week, scoop them up.
- PIT @ OAK: The Raiders finally showed signs of life last week, almost keeping up with the Chiefs. I don’t expect them to repeat that against the Steelers, who are much better on defense than the Chiefs.
- DAL vs PHI: There are a lot of lost seasons at this point. The Eagles barely pulled out the win against the (terrible) Giants last week, and now they have to visit the red-hot division rival Cowboys, who put up double-digit fantasy points against the Saints last week.
- NO @ TB: This is a high-risk, high-reward play. Tampa Bay is the most turnover-prone team in the league, and if New Orleans can right the ship after getting embarrassed by the Cowboys, Tampa Bay is likely to be playing catchup. If you’re an underdog and need your team to explode this week, the Saints have the highest upside.
- NYJ @ BUF: I’m excited to watch this game because it’s going to be an absolute mess. Both sides are solid on defense and hilariously bad on offense. The Bills are actually the stronger side, but the Jets are certainly still startable in fantasy.
- NYG @ WAS: Mark Sanchez is Washington’s starting quarterback.
Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.
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