The NFL regular season has come to an end, but there is still playoff football to get in some DFS action. As usual, I will focus on the building a cash game lineup for DraftKings four-game Wild Card Weekend slate. While touches are important, touchdowns are king on a small slate as they can swing your lineup in and out of the money on a single play. So, look to stockpile players that have high touchdown equity for this weekend’s “wild” NFL slate.
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Quarterback
Andrew Luck (IND): $6,400 @ HOU
Luck is a slam dunk for me at QB this weekend. In two previous meetings with the Texans this season, Luck has averaged 432 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Texans have been stout against the run, ranking first in DVOA according to Football Outsiders, which should force the Colts and Luck to continue to air it out on Saturday against the Texans’ 18th DVOA pass defense which has allowed 325 passing yards and 1.8 TD passes per game over the last five weeks.
Other Notables:
- Dak Prescott (DAL): $5,500 vs. SEA
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $9,000 vs. SEA
You’ll have to make some sacrifices either at WR or TE if you are going to fit in Elliott. But that seems like a small price to pay in the big picture for an RB that is so heavily involved in the offense. Before getting a week of rest in Week 17, Elliott had at least 17 carries and five receptions in eight straight games. He’ll face a Seahawks run defense that ranks 17th DVOA and has allowed 4.55 YPC to RBs this season. Elliott might not cross the goal line on the ground, but could get there through the air with the Seahawks allowing three receiving TDs to RBs over the last five weeks.
Chris Carson (SEA): $6,800 @ DAL
I’d look to prioritize Carson at RB, even over Elliott when building lineups this week. Carson has posted 115 rushing yards in three straight games and has scored in four straight outings. He put up 102 rushing yards and a score against the Cowboys earlier this season. The Cowboys rush defense has been vulnerable in recent weeks allowing 4.22 YPC and one rushing score per game over the last five weeks. The Seahawks will look to lean on Carson on the road in the playoffs.
Other Notables:
- Tarik Cohen (CHI): $5,400 vs. PHI
- Gus Edwards (BAL): $4,200 vs. LAC
Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton (IND): $7,800 @ HOU
Hilton has torched the Texans in each of their two meeting this season for a total of 13 receptions for 314 yards. Meanwhile, the Texans rank 31st in DVOA against opposing #1 WRs this year and have allowed 14 receptions for 205 yards per game to WRs over the last five weeks. The matchup also has the highest Vegas total on the slate.
Keke Coutee (HOU): $4,000 vs. IND
Coutee hasn’t played since Week 12 and is considered a game-time decision for Saturday’s tilt with the Colts. Since it is the first game of the weekend, we’ll know his status early on, so we can adjust our lineups accordingly if he is out. That said, I expect him to play and be involved in the Texans passing attack. He had 11 receptions for 109 yards in an earlier meeting with the Colts this season, and with the absence of secondary receiving options after DeAndre Hopkins, Coutee could be busy working underneath routes where the Colts rank 23rd in DVOA defending short routes.
Other Notables:
- DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): $8,700 vs. IND
- Amari Cooper (DAL): $7,500 vs. SEA
- Doug Baldwin (SEA): $6,200 @ DAL
- Allen Robinson (CHI): $5,600 vs. PHI
- Michael Gallup (DAL): $3,600 vs. SEA
Tight End
Eric Ebron (IND): $5,200 @ HOU
Finishing off a trifecta of the Colts passing game is Ebron. His salary is $1,200 lower than Zach Ertz and Ebron has a more favorable matchup than the Eagles TE. The Texans rank 23rd in DVOA against the position and have allowed 6.6 receptions (31st) for 67 yards (29th) and 0.6 TDs (26th) to TEs over the last five weeks. Remember we want touchdowns on a small slate more than ever and Ebron may have the highest TD potential of any receiving option on the slate.
Other Notables:
- Blake Jarwin (DAL): $3,300 vs. SEA
- Hunter Henry (LAC): $2,500 @ BAL
D/ST
Baltimore Ravens D/ST (BAL): $3,000 vs. LAC
The Ravens defense dominated the Chargers in Week 16 finishing with four sacks, three turnovers, and a score while allowing just 10 points. They’ll look for a repeat performance at home this time against Philip Rivers and company. Note that while the Ravens D/ST is my preferred choice, I’m very comfortable saving an extra $700 in salary and rostering the Colts D/ST against the Texans, who have allowed a league-high 5.0 sacks per game over the last five weeks.
Other Notables:
- Indianapolis Colts D/ST (IND): $2,300 @ HOU
Enter Sunday’s Wild DFS Card contest for free
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Brad Richter is a featured writer and correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
