One game stands head and shoulders above the rest in scoring potential with a week-high 49 point over/under total, per Pinnacle. The other three games have an over/under total south of 43 points. Unsurprisingly, my favorite stack featured in this piece is from the game with the greatest shootout upside. Also included below is a running back/defense and special teams (D/ST) stack and a standalone value receiving option.
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Andrew Luck (QB – IND): $6,400 at Texans
T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND): $7,800 at Texans
Eric Ebron (TE – IND): $5,200 at Texans
Luck has faced the Texans twice this year, and all he’s done is pile up 863 passing yards, six touchdown passes, one interception, and 27 yards rushing. No big deal. Luck has home/road splits that favor playing at home, and this one’s on the road. However, he also has notable indoor/outdoor splits that favor playing indoors, and NRG Stadium has a retractable roof. In 39 games played indoors in his career, Luck’s averaged 272.4 passing yards per game, 18.9 rushing yards per game, thrown 78 touchdown passes, 36 interceptions, and rushed for three touchdowns, per Yahoo!
Luck was on a heater to end the regular season. In eight games since Indianapolis’ Week 9 bye, Luck’s reached at least 285 passing yards with multiple touchdown passes six times. When the Colts went to Houston in Week 14, he torched them for 399 passing yards, two touchdown passes, one interception, and 16 rushing yards. Houston’s tied for just the 17th-most DraftKings points allowed per game to quarterbacks, according to Pro-Football-Reference, but even a cursory glance at their game log reveals they faced numerous terrible quarterbacks this year. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them just 18th defending the pass. This is a plus matchup for Luck.
Hilton’s my favorite of Luck’s stack partners. The veteran receiver is playing hobbled with an ankle injury, but the Colts have been managing the injury by resting him during the week. Even on a bum ankle, Hilton’s totaled 284 receiving yards on 14 receptions over the last three weeks. He’s cleared 60 receiving yards in each of those games. Before that three-game stretch, he ripped the Texans for a 9-199-0 line on 12 targets in Week 14. He also clowned them for a 4-115-0 line on six targets in Week 4, and he played only 43 of 91 offensive snaps that week due to injury.
Like his quarterback, Hilton has home/road splits that substantially favor playing at home. However, also like his quarterback, he has indoor/outdoor splits that greatly favor playing indoors. In 55 games indoors in his career, Hilton has 260 receptions (4.73 receptions per game), 23 touchdown receptions, and averages 82.0 receiving yards per game. FO ranks the Texans 31st defending No. 1 receivers. Hilton should eat for a third time this year against his AFC South foe.
Tight ends have also pulverized the Texans, and FO ranks them just 23rd defending the position. Ebron enjoyed a breakout season in his first with the Colts and looked like the player the Lions hoped they’d be getting when popping him with the 10th pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. In Week 5 versus the Texans, Ebron reeled in five of 10 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. In Week 14 at Houston, he caught four of eight targets for 65 yards and a touchdown. Tight end is weak on this weekend’s slate of games, and I have Ebron well ahead of Zach Ertz as the top option at the position this week.
Jordan Howard (RB – CHI): $4,600 vs. Eagles
Chicago Bears DEF (D/ST – CHI): $3,400 vs. Eagles
First of all, this matchup actually sets up better for Tarik Cohen. The Eagles tied for second-most receptions allowed to running backs this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. Furthermore, FO ranked Philadelphia ninth defending the run and 24th defending running backs in the passing game. I love Cohen this week — especially on the Sunday only slate. Having said that, there’s room for Howard to have a good game, too.
Additionally, saving $800 spinning down to the between-the-tackles back from the multi-purpose back is helpful in fleshing out my favorite GPP lineup. Also, gamers won’t be sleeping on Philadelphia’s struggles defending backs in the passing game, so Howard should check in with a lower ownership rate than his backfield mate.
As for Howard’s credentials, he closed the regular season on a high note. Howard finished the regular season with a three-game touchdown streak, and he reached at least 70 yards from scrimmage in five straight games to close the campaign. He also caught a pass in eight straight games to end the regular season mixing in a two-catch performance in Week 16, so there’s some potential for him snagging a few passes against Philly’s defense, too. The Bears are six-point favorites at home this week, so if things go according to the betting line, game script will work out his favor and make him a strong correlation play with his D/ST.
Speaking of Chicago’s D/ST, FO ranked the defense first in DVOA, first against the pass, and second defending the run. They were especially imposing at home with only three opponents scoring 20 points or more, and only one, the Patriots (38 points) in Week 7, besting 22 points. Chicago tied for the lowest yards per play (4.8) allowed, ranked tied for third in sacks (50), and led the way in turnovers forced (36) and scoring defense (17.7 points per game). This is an elite defense, and they’re worth ponying up for.
Nelson Agholor (WR – PHI): $3,400 at Bears
After gushing about Chicago’s defense, it probably seems odd to see a member of Philly’s offense included among my touted plays. Such is the nature of a four-game slate. Agholor’s underpriced relative to his upside and game script should play into his hands if the Eagles fall behind. The 25-year-old receiver’s production has been volatile week to week, but he wrapped up the regular season with game lines of 5-116-1 and 5-40-2 on seven targets and six targets, respectively.
He’s also clicked with Nick Foles. According to RotoViz’ game-splits tool, Agholor’s production has jumped from per-game averages of 5.45 targets, 3.36 receptions, and 41 receiving yards in 11 games without Foles to 7.4 targets, 5.4 receptions, and 58.4 receiving yards in five games with him. Agholor has also caught all four of his touchdowns this year from Foles, too.
It’s a tough matchup, no doubt, but he should have it slightly easier than No. 1 receiver Alshon Jeffery. FO ranks the Bears first defending No. 1 receivers and fifth defending No. 2 receivers and “other” receivers. Every little bit counts when evaluating the smaller player pools on a four-game slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
