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Draftkings PGA Preview: Tournament of Champions

Draftkings PGA Preview: Tournament of Champions

PGA is back, baby! For those of us who are sad that the NFL regular season is finished, we welcome the start of the PGA season. Though the actual tour events start next week, we get a treat this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions in beautiful Maui at the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii.

Every player in this golf tournament won a PGA event in 2018 so each one is capable of a big week. Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson, and Tiger Woods have declined to participate, leaving us with 34 players in this no-cut event. Remember that they are all previous champions. That means that you will probably like your lineup as they are all good players. A no-cut event also means that each player will play the weekend, placing a higher value on those players that can score. Normally a bad round on Thursday or Friday will sink a player (and your lineup). In this week’s event, a player with a bad early round still gets to play all four rounds.

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COURSE INFORMATION

The Plantation Course is a Par-73 with four Par-5s and only three Par-3s. This doesn’t mean that shorter hitters can’t succeed, as they have done well here because the course plays much shorter than its’ 7,452 yardage. But it does make it much easier for the longer hitters, especially when you consider that the fairways are some of the widest on tour.

Greens are Bermuda grass. They are much larger than the average tour green. They are also slower and have extreme undulation.

First-timers don’t win this event. Each of the last eight champions of this event had played the course before. However, Jon Rahm was a rookie last year and finished second (albeit, eight strokes behind DJ).

The last five winning scores have averaged -23.2 and have included DJ (2018), Justin Thomas (2017), Jordan Spieth (2016), Patrick Reed (2015), and Zach Johnson (2014). Overall, in the last 10 years, the winning score has been at least -16 every year.

RECENT FORM

Xander Schauffele ($8,300)
Has finished in the Top-10 in each of his last two events. He finished T8 at the Hero at the end of November and then won the WGC-HSBC at the end of October.

Cameron Champ ($8,100)
He has three Top-10s in his last four events, including a win at Sanderson Farms at the end of October.

Scott Piercy ($6,700)
Amazingly, there are only three players that have back-to-back Top-10s in their last two events. Even more amazing is that Piercy is the third golfer (Schauffele and Champ are the others). He finished T6 at OHL and T10 at the Shriners Tournament.

Jon Rahm ($9,800), Bryson Dechambeau ($8,700), Matt Kuchar ($7,600), and Charles Howell III ($7,100) are the only other players (besides Schauffele and Champ) to have won a tournament in one of their last four events.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

Patrick Reed ($8,200)
He didn’t play last year but he finished 6th (2017), 2nd (2016), and 1st (2015) in his previous three appearances. He is not well-liked but that probably plays to his favor in an event like this as he is not there for a vacation. He is there to compete.

Dustin Johnson ($11,000)
Has really enjoyed playing here. Not only is he the defending champion but he has also finished 6th (2017), 10th (2016), and 6th (2014).

Justin Thomas ($10,500) is the only other previous winner (2017) in the field. His win was sandwiched between a 21st (2016) and a 22nd (2018).

Jon Rahm ($9,800) was runner-up to DJ last year in his only appearance.

COURSE FIT

This course has some of the largest fairways on tour and the big hitters should be able to grip it and rip it without worry. The big hitters will also have a chance to drive Par-4s, which increases their scoring potential. In the last 12 rounds, the Top-4 players in terms of Driving Distance are Rory McIlroy ($9,600), Kevin Tway ($6,500), Cam Champ ($8,100), and Aaron Wise ($7,500).

These greens are Bermuda grass and they can be tricky. In the last 36 rounds played, the Top-5 players in terms of Shots Gained Putting on Bermuda are Webb Simpson ($8,500), Jason Day ($9,000), Brandt Snedeker ($7,400), Patrick Reed ($8,200), and Aaron Wise ($7,500).

This is an unusual course in that there are four Par-5s and only three Par-3s. Par-5 scoring should be important. The Top-3 players in the last 24 rounds for Par-5 scoring are Cam Champ ($8,100), Brooks Koepka ($10,200), and Xander Schauffele ($8,300).

This is perhaps the easiest scoring course for PGA tour pros. It is designed for tourists and amateurs. Scores should be low. In the last 50 rounds, the Top-4 players in the Shots Gained category (for easy courses) are Rory McIlroy ($9,600), Jon Rahm ($9,800), Jason Day ($9,000), and Dustin Johnson ($11,000).

The only thing that could keep scoring from getting crazy is the wind. 20+ mph wind is expecting for this event. In the last 24 rounds, there are only four players that have gained at least 1.9 strokes on the field in windy conditions. Paul Casey ($7,900), Cam Champ ($8,100), Dustin Johnson ($11,000), and Jason Day ($9,000) seem to take care of business in the wind.

VEGAS VALUE

Patrick Reed ($8,200)
The Masters champ has the 11th highest salary on DK but his 16:1 Vegas odds rank 8th.

Billy Horschel ($7,000)
His 42:1 odds rank 18th but his DK salary only ranks 22nd.

FAVORITE STUD

Dustin Johnson ($11,000)
Picking a favorite high-priced golfer is oftentimes similar to picking which Netflix show I will binge-watch next. They are all good but at the end of the night, I have to make a choice between a bunch of great options. Defending champions do well here as six of the last seven champions have finished Top-10 the next year. I love DJ this week. His price is high but you can afford him with all of the mid-tier value available. DJ does everything well (led or co-led the PGA in Par-3, Par-4, and Par-5 scoring last year) – and, oh yeah, he is the No. 1 player in the world. Last year, he nearly aced the Par-4, 433-yard 12th hole. His ownership is expected to be high (but with only 34 golfers in the field, all the top golfers will have high ownership). I wouldn’t be opposed to pivoting to Brooks Koepka if the ownership difference is expected to be 10% or more.

FAVORITE VALUE

Aaron Wise ($7,500)
I love Wise this week and will probably be locking him into my lineups. He is nearly $2,000 below the average price so he gives you a lot of salary flexibility. More importantly, he is good! He is the 2018 PGA Rookie of the Year. Even though he had a bit of a lull during the middle of his season with missed cuts, he came on at the end having Top-16 finishes in five of his last six events. He also is a great scorer, which works well for no-cut events. Overall, he ranked in the Top-15 last year in birdie or better percentage. His price, talent, and scoring ability for a no-cut event makes him my favorite. Plus, he will probably be an above-average priced player by the time the Masters rolls around.

FAVORITE PUNT

Kevin Tway ($6,500)
Tway is a bomber. I don’t expect him to win but he could easily Top-5 this event and his salary gives you a lot of relief to pay up with some of the players more likely to win. Not only is he a big hitter but he could be a player that really takes advantage of the large, undulating greens on this course. Last year, he had a streak of 300+ holes played without a three-putt. He won the PGA’s first event of the Fall season when he took down the Safeway Open. Even when he isn’t winning, he still scores really well. He scored 80+ fantasy points despite finishing in 23rd and 27th place in two other events this fall. That makes him a good option for a no-cut event.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION

Jon Rahm ($9,800)
I am not necessarily saying to avoid playing this guy or to fade him completely but I do have some concerns about him this week. My concern with Rahm this week is that his ownership will be too high. He is projected to be more than 40%. In golf, it is easy to pivot away from a high-owned golfer (even if you expect him to do well as I expect from Rahm). But there are just too many other options at lower percentages. He is the 4th highest priced player on DK. Unless he wins, you may not make up much ground rostering someone at this high of ownership. Golf has so much variance and so many players can win, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to roster a high-priced player with this much-expected ownership.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. His DFS twitter is @WinningDFS101, and his website is www.FantasyFocusFootball.comWhen he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.

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