Welcome to Happy Gilmore Week on FanDuel. No, Adam Sandler is not teeing it up and bringing his hockey-style drives to the Phoenix Open this week, but no other event on the PGA Tour comes closer to a party than the Waste Management Open. 600,000 ruckus fans look forward to having fun this week while watching golf at TPC Scottsdale. The 16th hole is a par-3 with stadium seating surrounding the entire hole. The fans do not treat this hole – or the tournament, for that matter – like a normal golf event. Buckle up. It should be fun.
All of the plays that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my lineups. That doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most variance from week to week. Anyone can miss a cut, and anyone can finish in the top five (or even win). Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
No more than 132 players will tee it up this week with the top 70 (and ties) making the cut and playing the weekend.
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 that measures 7,266 yards with generous fairways.
All three Par 5s are reachable.
Water is in play on six of the final nine holes.
Previous winners of the event that are scheduled to play this week include Gary Woodland (2018), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016), Phil Mickelson (2014, 2005, 1996), and Kyle Stanley (2012).
Playoffs have decided the previous three Waste Management Opens.
The winning average score for the last five years is 16-under par. The average cutline has been even par.
In the last four years, 15 of the 18 golfers that finished in the top five played at Torrey Pines the week before (stat courtesy of Kenny Kim of Fantasy Golf Degenerates).
RECENT FORM
Jon Rahm ($11,500)
Four straight top-eight finishes for the Arizona State product who gets a chance to play in front of the “home” crowd this week. Three of those top-eight finishes have come in this calendar year, including last week’s T5. He is on fire and it’s just a matter of time before he finds the winners circle again. Not exactly “recent” but he has nine top-six finishes in his last 21 events. In other words, he is one of the best golfers on the planet, period!
Xander Schauffele ($10,100)
Ten straight made cuts is pretty good if you are into burying the lead. He has three wins in his last five events. He struggled a bit this past weekend but still managed to finish T25 without playing his best golf.
Gary Woodland ($9,900)
The defending champion has made the cut in 17 of his last 18 events. Woodland has finished in the top 12 in seven of his last nine tournaments, including a couple of runner up performances. He finished T9 this past week at Torrey Pines.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,700)
He is the poster child for “course horse.” Looking past his injury withdrawal last year, he won in both 2017 and 2016. Before that, he finished second in 2015 and fourth in 2014. Fade him at your own risk. He will be a popular one-and-done pick this week, as well.
Phil Mickelson ($9,300)
He has three straight top-16 finishes, including fifth place last year. Lefty is also a three-time winner here. None of that is a surprise for the Hall of Famer since he is a former star at Arizona State University.
Martin Laird ($7,600)
His name wouldn’t be the first one you’d think of but Laird has performed really well at this event. Three top-10 finishes in the last four years. Five straight cuts made and his best finish was third place in 2011. Someone to keep your eye on, especially as a value play.
COURSE FIT
Last year’s champion (Gary Woodland) scored 10-under par during the tournament on the Par 5s. Since all of them (12 total for the tournament) are reachable then Par 5 scoring will be important. The five players that have gained the most strokes on Par 5s in the last 36 rounds played are Gary Woodland ($9,900), Sung Kang ($7,000), Tony Finau ($9,500), Nick Watney ($6,800), and Justin Thomas ($11,000).
Last year, five of the top-10 finishers also finished inside the top-10 for Strokes Gained Approach. None of the past three winners have ranked worse than fourth in this category for the week. Driving distance is important at this course but players that hit greens and have a spot on approach game have traditionally performed well at TPC Scottsdale. Here are the top-5 players in Strokes Gained Approach for the last 36 rounds: Justin Thomas ($11,000), Talor Gooch ($7,500), Webb Simpson ($9,700), Gary Woodland ($9,900), and Chez Reavie ($8,700). Woodland and Reavie battled it out in a playoff here last year.
FAVORITE STUD
Jon Rahm ($11,500)
Do not fade both Hideki Matsuyama and Jon Rahm. Which one you play is a matter of preference. Hideki’s history here is insane and he finally looked like his old self this past week. Rahm loves playing in the desert and is playing as good as anyone right now. Play one of them. I don’t care who but play one of them. Sure, there is always an argument that can be made to fade the top-priced players. I don’t have a problem pivoting to guys like Gary Woodland, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, or Matt Kuchar that are $1-2,000 cheaper. As for me, I plan on paying up for Rahm and play Hideki as my one-and-done. #HedgeLife. Rahm has great recent form and good course history. Watch his ownership, though. If it gets too high, you might want to pivot.
FAVORITE VALUE
Talor Gooch ($7,500)
If you were taking the wait-and-see approach after Gooch finished fourth in a watered-down field at the Desert Classic, then his third-place finish this past weekend speaks volumes. He was the only “non-star” on the Sunday leader board. Amidst the big names playing some good golf, he stayed focused and rose to the occasion. I like playing the hot hand in golf and he definitely has the hot hand. If he gets a top five or even another top-10 then he grossly outproduces his salary. He allows you to save a lot of salary and get a guy that is clicking on all cylinders. Additionally, he is a good ball striker and has a strong approach game. During the last 12 rounds, he is the number one ranked player on tour in both of those categories, which sets him up well for his first attempt at TPC Scottsdale.
FAVORITE PUNT
Anders Albertson ($6,300)
This is a nice cheap option that allows you to pay up for Jon Rahm or Hideki Matsuyama. He missed the cut at Torrey Pines last week, but a lot of players do that in their rookie season. Prior to that, Albertson had made five straight cuts and nine of his last 10. Included in those 10 events were four top-15 finishes. Certainly, field strength varies from event to event but getting a guy that has finished in the top-15 in 40% of his most recent events is a great option at this salary. He is also a good ball striker and has a strong approach game, ranking in the top 10 in both of those categories in the last 36 rounds.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Bubba Watson ($8,900)
He missed the cut at his last event (Sony Open) and finished 31st out of 33 players the week before at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Even though he finished runner up at the Waste Management in 2014 and 2015, the last two years he has a missed cut and a 40th place finish. He is not exorbitantly priced but there are other much better options in this price range. Be careful looking at his course history and seeing those high finishes.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. His DFS twitter is @WinningDFS101, and his website is www.FantasyFocusFootball.com. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.