And just like that, we’re down to four. Four teams that were generally regarded as the best in football for much of the 2018 season now find themselves one win away from a Super Bowl berth. Two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks aged 40 and over (Happy birthday Drew Brees) will face off with two young up-and-comers under 25. Some of the best offenses in recent NFL history will do battle in what is sure to be one of the more exciting doubleheaders in the history of January football.
Tired of the hype? Fair enough. Let’s not wait another minute to get into what you came here for. Here are eight men to consider as we enter one of the most important weekends of the NFL season.
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Quarterbacks
Tom Brady (NE): $8,400 @ KC (+$200)
The annual “Tom Brady is declining” argument appears to have taken another hit after the future Hall of Famer produced one of his best games of the season against the Chargers in the Divisional Round. Brady looked like his best self, completing 34 of 44 passes for 343 yards and a score, while generally having his way with his opponents all day long. The performance comes on the heels of a four-touchdown demolition of the New York Jets in Week 17, and all of a sudden, TB12 seems to have regained his MVP form at the most important time of the season. Shocker, I know.
Now, the Patriots have to do it again in Kansas City in what could prove to be an instant classic. When these two teams met in Foxborough back in October, New England eked out a 43-40 victory while Brady threw for 340 yards and a touchdown, a virtually identical stat line to what he posted against the Chargers. While an 83-point total is likely not in store this time around, both teams should still put the scoreboard to work. Of the four quarterbacks playing on Conference Championship weekend, Brady is the third-most expensive and could return modest value if he continues playing at this level.
Drew Brees (NO): $8,800 vs. LAR (No Value Change)
Brees turned 40 this week but appears to be as dominant a passer as ever on the heels of a 301-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional Round. After throwing an interception on the first pass of the game, he rebounded beautifully and led his team back from a 14-0 deficit to advance to the NFC title contest. Now, he prepares to host the Rams in an exciting rematch with a trip to Super Bowl LIII on the line.
When these two teams met back in Week 9, Brees produced one of his best games of the season, throwing for 346 yards and four touchdowns, while rushing for a season-high 16 yards for good measure in a thrilling 45-35 victory. This game has an over/under of 57 points, and figures to be another high-scoring affair. All four starting quarterbacks will cost you $8,000 or more this weekend, so you’re not going to find a steal, but Brees might actually be a decent contrarian play because many managers will opt to start Patrick Mahomes for only $200 more.
Running Backs
Damien Williams (KC): $7,200 vs. NE (+$1,100)
Williams has been an incredible surprise for a Kansas City team that lost its top two tailbacks down the stretch and has established himself as one of the most productive and dependable runners in the league over the last month. Over the course of his first four starts, he’s accumulated 332 rushing yards and four touchdowns across 59 carries (5.63 YPC), while snaring 19 of 20 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown reception. With 476 total yards and five total end zone trips, he’s been the definition of an elite RB1 and people are finally starting to take notice.
After pummeling the Colts for 154 total yards and a score on Saturday, he’s seen an incredible $1,100 value hike on FanDuel this week, but an argument can be made that he’s still a potential steal. While it will cost you RB5 value to start him, he has the clearest path to a featured workload of any runner left in the playoffs. Sony Michel cedes touches to James White and Rex Burkhead, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are a dynamic duo, and what about Todd Gurley? Say hello to C.J. Anderson. Meanwhile, Williams just out-touched his backfield mate Darrel Williams 30-3 against the Colts.
The Pats aren’t a cupcake matchup for opposing runners. In fact, they pretty much shut Melvin Gordon down on Sunday. With that said, Williams in on a remarkable run, has fresh legs and is likely in line for a huge workload in a potential shootout. I’ll take that, thank you very much.
Todd Gurley (LAR): $8,500 @ NO (-$500)
Real talk. In no way, shape, or form is this column trying to imply you should fade TGII in the Conference Championship round. Not at all. However, his $5oo value drop isn’t without merit as the two-time All-Pro was surprisingly out-carried 23 to 16 by the re-invigorated Anderson. Head coach Sean McVay reportedly intended to limit Gurley’s workload in his first game back after missing the last two contests of the regular season, so that’s likely part of the reason Anderson saw so much action. Still, the former Bronco has produced 422 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his first three games with his new team. There is no reason why he shouldn’t remain heavily involved.
Having said that, Gurley accumulated 115 rushing yards and a touchdown on his 16 carries and averaged an eye-popping 7.2 yards per touch against a Cowboys defense that allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to opposing tailbacks in 2018. Even with his slightly reduced snap share, he was still incredibly productive. This week, he should out-touch Anderson and lead the backfield once again. With that said, New Orleans has been excellent against opposing runners this season, only permitting 17.0 FanDuel points per game to the position in 2018 (fourth-fewest). Even with his value drop, Gurley is still the most expensive runner on the slate, so proceed with (a minimal amount of) caution.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas (NO): $8,800 vs. LAR (+$400)
Thomas’ incredible season continued on Sunday as the two-time Pro Bowler set a franchise record, snaring 12 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. It was a scintillating performance from a player who has quickly established himself as one of the most prolific early-career receivers of all time. For that reason alone, his $400 value hike makes sense.
When you factor in his 12-catch, 211-yard, one touchdown performance against the Rams from back in Week 9, it’s even more understandable. The connection he has established with Brees ranks among the best of any quarterback/wideout duo in the game, and his end zone chances are solid against a team that surrendered 20 touchdown receptions to the position. There’s not much more to say here. Playing Thomas is expensive, but his combination of reliable floor and staggering upside makes him one of the best bets in all of fantasy, week in and week out.
Brandin Cooks (LAR): $6,900 @ NO (-$500)
Cooks had a reasonably quiet game with four catches for 65 yards against the Cowboys as the Rams’ running game did all the heavy lifting, but I expect him to be at his best when he faces off against the team that drafted him in the NFC Championship game. When the Rams traveled to New Orleans in early November, Cooks lit up his former franchise for six catches, 114 yards, and a touchdown in a 45-35 loss, and you know he’s ready to do it again.
New Orleans is playing considerably better defense these days, but the fact remains that they allowed the most FanDuel points per contest to wide receivers (tied) during the regular season. The chance to can get Cooks in your lineup at a $500 discount makes for a screaming value, even with the Rams renewed focus on running the football. Don’t worry. Cooks, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds are still going to get their opportunities.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,400 vs. NE (+$400)
How can we talk about any other tight ends than Kelce and Rob Gronkowski this week? Answer: we can’t. Kelce tore it up (again) on Saturday, ripping the Colts for for seven receptions and 108 yards as Kansas City steamrolled the hottest team in the NFL. It was his sixth 100-yard performance and the seventh time he received double-digit targets this season. Incredible.
With that said, a date with the Patriots won’t be easy. When these teams met in Week 6, New England held Kelce in check as the All-Pro only snagged five receptions for 61 yards. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill went off for seven receptions, 142 yards, and three touchdowns. My best guess is that Bill Belichick has a better gameplan for Hill this time around, freeing up Kelce to do some more damage in the rematch. The four-time Pro Bowler is far and away the most expensive tight end on the slate, but he’s clearly the best option at the position by a mile. Search for savings elsewhere. Play Kelce, and you’ll likely end up dancing in celebration just like he does in fast food restaurant commercials.
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $5,600 @ KC (-$600)
Gronkowski is one of the greatest tight ends in NFL history and recent reports have indicated that he will once again consider retirement in the offseason. I don’t wish to speculate about that too much, because it’s none of my business, but I will say this: I’ve been fortunate enough to enjoy his entire career objectively, and watching him revolutionize the tight end position has been a joy.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t surpassed two catches or 25 receiving yards in any of his last four contests, and we haven’t seen a Gronk spike since Week 14. Naturally, everyone’s talking about injuries and decline, to which I’ll say, throw on the game-tape and watch him blocking like a madman out there. Without question, he’s still bringing value to this franchise, even if it’s not showing up in the stat sheet. Having said that, he did grab three receptions for 97 yards when these teams played in Week 6, and with a $600 value drop, he’s very inexpensive. There’s risk involved, but potential reward as well.
David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.
