Two-game slates lead to some wonky roster moves, and the following roster is no exception. It’s a top-heavy player pool, though, there are a few solid middle-tier running backs and receivers who were left off of the lineup below. One of the two games is extremely well represented, and it should be with a game over/under total of 49 points and spread of only one point, per Pinnacle. The other Saturday contest’s over/under total is just 42.5 points and features a pair of run-heavy teams that gobble up clock. Seven of the nine roster spots are filled by players from the game with the over/under total of 49 points, and one of the two “players” from the other game is the defense and special teams (D/ST). Here’s to a shootout in Houston.
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Quarterback
Andrew Luck (IND): $8,400 at Texans
After missing all of last season, Luck returned to arguably his best season. He posted new highs in Quarterback Rating (98.7), QBR (71.5), and completion percentage (67.3%). He also threw for the second-most touchdowns (39) in his career while averaging the second-most passing yards per game (287.1) in his career. Suffice to say, it was a big year for Luck.
He did a ton of damage against the Texans this year, amassing 863 passing yards, six touchdown passes, one interception, and 27 rushing yards in two games against them. He and the Colts have a team over/under total of 23.5 points, which is below the 34 points they scored at home against the Texans in Week 4 and the 24 points they hung on them in Houston in Week 14. The matchup is favorable for the visiting pigskin slinger. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Texans 18th defending the pass.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,800 vs. Seahawks
Chris Carson is an outstanding back, but with all due respect to him, Zeke is the only 100% game-script proof stud back on this slate. Lamar Miller is game-script proof as well thanks to his receiving skills, but he’s certainly no stud back. As for Zeke, he is a stud — and a well-rested one at that after sitting in Week 17. He earned that rest.
Since the Cowboys added Amari Cooper via trade before their Week 9 contest against Titans, Elliott’s touched the ball at least 21 times in all eight games and totaled no fewer than 109 yards from scrimmage in any of those games. He’s rushed for at least 75 yards in eight games with Cooper, and he’s caught at least four passes in all eight games with Dallas’ No. 1 receiver. Even before the team added Cooper to the offense, he rumbled for 127 yards on 16 carries and caught three passes for 11 yards in Seattle in Week 3. If you’re considering fading Zeke, consider the money you use on those Zeke-less rosters lost.
Nyheim Hines (IND): $4,800 at Texans
FO ranks the Texans first defending the run. Marlon Mack was held to only 33 yards rushing and a touchdown on 14 carries in his only game against the Texans in Houston in Week 14. It isn’t much of a leap to suggest Hines could be the most productive back in Indianapolis’ backfield this week. He was held to only 17 yards from scrimmage on three carries and three receptions the last time these two teams met, but he was rather productive in the first meeting back in Week 4 posting a 9-63-2 receiving line on 11 targets with another 10 yards rushing on four carries. Hines’ greatest strength is his receiving skills, and if he has a solid game, that would likely correlate well with Luck’s point scoring. The bar’s low for Hines hitting value at only $300 above the minimum salary for a running back or receiver.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): $9,500 vs. Colts
Part of the reasoning for using Hines as the RB2 on this squad instead of his teammate, Marlon Mack ($7,200), Chris Carson ($7,500), or Lamar Miller ($6,400) is saving cap space for Hopkins. Nuk’s ceiling exceeds those of the aforementioned trio of backs, and if this game is going to turn into the type of track meet that can push this team to a high GPP finish, there’s a good chance Nuk has his hand in it doing so.
T.Y. Hilton (IND): $7,900 at Texans
Hilton’s been Houston’s daddy throughout his career. He’s averaged 103.2 yards and 5.4 receptions per game against them in 14 games, per Pro-Football-Reference, and he torched them for lines of 4-115-0 and 9-199-0 this season. The former line was totaled in a game Hilton played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps in due to leaving early hurt.
Hilton’s been at his best playing indoors in his career, and RNG Stadium in Houston has a retractable roof. In 55 games indoors in his career, Hilton’s averaged 4.73 receptions and 82.0 receptions per game while scoring 23 touchdowns, according to Yahoo! Even on a dinged up ankle that he’s been playing through down the stretch, Hilton should be able to manhandle a Houston defense that FO ranks 31st defending No. 1 receivers.
Vyncint Smith (HOU): $4,600 vs. Colts
To squeeze Luck, Zeke, Nuk, and a forthcoming top-flight tight end on this roster, some punts are necessary. Smith fits the bill. Demaryius Thomas‘ late-season injury has opened the door for Smith to receive work, and last week was his most extensive playing time. He played 84% of Houston’s offensive snaps, second-most among receivers to Hopkins.
The Texans should get rookie Keke Coutee back this week, but he’s a slot receiver and most likely to cut into DeAndre Carter’s playing time. Smith has the best build (6-foot-3 and 202 pounds, per Pro-Football-Reference) to serve as the team’s outside receiver opposite Hopkins. He has great straight line speed that theoretically pairs well with Watson’s ability to keep plays alive with his legs. Couple that with a likely high percentage of offensive snaps played, and there’s potential for Smith reeling in a few passes or ripping off a long touchdown that would easily pay off a salary that’s only $100 above the minimum for a running back or wideout.
Tight End
Eric Ebron (IND): $6,600 at Texans
Ebron is the latest example of what a change of scenery can do for a talented young player. He enjoyed a breakout season with the Colts, and his breakout included two big games against the Texans. The fifth-year pro hung a 5-40-1 line on them in Week 4 and 4-65-1 line on them in Week 14. FO ranks the Texans 23rd defending tight ends. They’ve coughed up the fifth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends this year. Ebron’s far and away the top tight end on this slate.
Flex
Ryan Griffin (HOU): $4,100 vs. Colts
Griffin’s floor is legitimately zero-catch low. He’s failed to catch a ball in three games this year. He’s caught just one pass in six more games. Yeah, the floor’s super low. However, he also had his best game of the year against the Colts reeling in all five of his targets for 80 yards. FO ranks Indianapolis 29th defending tight ends, and the Colts have coughed up the third-most FanDuel points per game to the position.
The Colts have yielded the most catches (106) and receiving yards (1,234) to tight ends this year, but held them to only five touchdown receptions. Griffin failed to reach pay dirt all year. Seems like he’s unlikely to score a touchdown this week, right? Not so fast.
There is some touchdown-potential for Griffin. His 10 red zone targets this year were tied for the 12th most by a tight end, per Lineups. Every tight end with eight or more red zone targets this year has at least one touchdown reception. The man’s due for some touchdown regression, and this week is as good of week as any for the regression monster to rear its head.
Defense/Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks (SEA): $4,800 at Cowboys
After fleshing out the skill positions, the Cowboys are the only defense that won’t fit under the cap. Indianapolis is a no go since there are already four members of the Colts on the roster. Besides, they’d be a poor play rooting for a shootout anyway. There’s enough cap space left for the Texans, but it doesn’t make logical sense to use them against a Luck/Hines/Hilton/Ebron stack, obviously.
That leaves the Seahawks as the last D/ST standing. FO ranks them in the middle of the pack at 14th in DVOA, so they’re not an elite unit, but they’re fine. The game’s over/under total of 42.5 points and spread of just one point favoring the Cowboys is non-threatening. There’s also some sack potential for this unit with Dak Prescott taking three or more sacks in seven of nine games with Cooper on the squad. He took multiple sacks in all but two of 16 games this season, and the Seahawks sacked him five times while forcing two interceptions in Seattle back in Week 3.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
