Unlike Saturday’s slate, neither game looks like a potential shootout on paper. The over/under totals of Sunday’s games are 41.5 points and 41 points, according to Pinnacle. One of the four teams playing is the biggest favorite of the week at six points, however, and they’re well represented on the following team with three key cogs from the offense. One of Sunday’s underdogs is also well represented with four “players” on the touted team, including their star running back and No. 1 receiver.
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Quarterback
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI): $8,100 vs. Eagles
Trubisky and the Bears are six-point favorites at home with a team over/under total of 23.5 points. I bring up the fact the game is at home because Trubisky has huge home/road splits that greatly favor playing in Chicago. In 12 games on the road in the second-year player’s career, he has eight touchdown passes, nine interceptions, and averages 203.2 passing yards per game and 18.3 rushing yards per game with a pair of touchdown scampers, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
In 14 home contests, he has 23 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and averages 212.7 passing yards per game and 32.1 rushing yards per game with three rushing touchdowns. The matchup is fairly solid for him with the Eagles ceding 10th-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks this year. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 15th defending the pass.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon (LAC): $8,400 at Ravens
Gordon is the most talented of Sunday’s backs, and he’s the only true do-it-all workhorse at the position, too. The Ravens are a tough draw with FO ranking them sixth defending the run and first defending backs as receivers. Regardless, Gordon is game-script proof with per-game averages this year of 14.6 carries, 73.8 rushing yards, 4.2 receptions, and 40.8 receiving yards. He also has a nose for the end zone with 14 touchdowns in 12 games. In Gordon’s first game back from a knee injury when these two teams met in Week 16, he totaled 54 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown on 12 carries and three receptions. Even in a tough matchup, he’s an easy pick for this team that’s made all the easier by a lack of top-shelf studs at any position on this two-game slate.
Kenneth Dixon (BAL): $6,800 vs. Chargers
Dixon enjoyed a career day in Week 17 against the Browns. He erupted for 117 rushing yards on 12 carries and added a two-yard reception. He’s Baltimore’s most explosive back and averaged a hearty 5.6 yards per carry on 60 rushes this season.
He’s also Baltimore’s most versatile back, as Gus Edwards lacks pass-catching chops and Ty Montgomery is a less talented runner than Dixon while possessing top-notch receiving skills as a former wideout. Dixon’s versatility makes him a strong bet to get work regardless of game script, and his inclusion on this roster is aided by banking on the Chargers to open up a lead in their second look at rookie Lamar Jackson. If that happens, Edwards would be most hurt by the game script, and it could open the door to extra touches for Dixon.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen (LAC): $7,700 at Ravens
Allen exited the Chargers’ Week 15 showdown in Kansas City with a hip pointer early, and it wasn’t a foregone conclusion he’d be ready to suit up in Week 16 against the Ravens. He did suit up, and he was easily the Chargers’ most effective receiver with 58 yards receiving on five receptions. Only one other player, Justin Jackson (7-47-0 on 10 targets), bested 45 yards receiving.
Now further removed from suffering the hip pointer, it’s possible a healthier Allen can build on his ho-hum marks. FO ranks the Ravens eighth defending No. 1 receivers as well as “other” receivers and second defending No. 2 receivers. Regardless of whether you choose to treat Allen as a No. 1 receiver or an “other” receiver due to his frequent slot usage, he looks to have the best matchup of the Chargers receivers — albeit still a tough one.
Allen Robinson (CHI): $6,500 vs. Eagles
A-Rob was inactive last week during an essentially meaningless Week 17 contest for the Bears due to his rib injury, but he’s practicing in full and might be Chicago’s healthiest receiver. He led the team in targets (94), receiving yards (754), and receiving yards per game (58.0), so he stands out as the top stack partner with Trubisky.
Additionally, he has possibly the best matchup of Chicago’s pass catchers, too. FO ranks the Eagles 15th defending No. 1 receivers, 22nd defending No. 2 receivers, and 15th defending “other” receivers. However, Philadelphia’s coughed up the second-most passes per game (9.9) and most receiving yards per game (90.2) to No. 1 receivers adjusted to opposing offenses and including defensive pass interference, per FO.
Willie Snead (BAL): $5,000 vs. Chargers
Snead played 42 of Baltimore’s 62 offensive snaps against the Chargers in Week 16, but you wouldn’t know he played more than zero based on reading the box score. He didn’t draw even a single target and failed to touch the ball at all. If the Ravens fall behind this time around though, Snead would stand to benefit from the game script. From Week 11 — when Jackson took over as the starter — through the end of the season, Snead ranked second on the Ravens in targets (26) and receiving yards (203), and first in receptions (17).
Tight End
Hunter Henry (LAC): $4,900 at Ravens
Henry’s playing status for Sunday remains up in the air, but Antonio Gates is an acceptable (and my preferred) pivot at the same salary if Henry isn’t activated. Zach Ertz will be the chalk, but his matchup is a nightmare, and he’s less appealing here with the half-point per reception scoring than he is elsewhere. Conversely, the matchup is favorable for whoever starts for the Chargers at tight end. FO ranks Baltimore 23rd defending the position, and they’re tied for the 14th-most FanDuel points allowed per game to tight ends. If Henry does play, be aware that he’ll be on a “pitch” count (i.e. limited number of snaps).
Flex
Tarik Cohen (CHI): $7,000 vs. Eagles
I said above the A-Rob has “possibly” Chicago’s best matchup among their pass-catchers. It’s also possible Cohen does. FO ranks Philadelphia 24th defending running backs in the passing game. And, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Eagles tied for the second-most receptions (110) allowed to running backs while also tying for the eighth-most touchdown receptions (four) allowed and sitting alone with the sixth-most receiving yards (844) coughed up to them. Cohen finished third on the team in targets (91) and touchdown receptions (five), second in receiving yards (725) and receiving yards per game (45.3), and first in receptions (71). The matchup is better for Cohen than backfield mate Jordan Howard.
However, game script could also make Howard a strong play. With $600 left in salary after adding a defense and special teams (D/ST) to the squad below, there’s exactly enough salary to run this lineup back with Howard instead of Cohen. That’s a move I’ll likely make in the multi-entry GPPs.
Defense/Special Teams
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST (LAC): $5,000 at Ravens
As I’ve touched on throughout this piece, this lineup is built banking on the Chargers to get the better of the Ravens in their second look at Jackson. Therefore, the Chargers D/ST is a stack partner with Gordon, boosting the upside with both since the D/ST’s success would correlate well with Gordon touching the ball often to salt away the clock in a win.
Also, it’s hard to fault the Chargers defense for their loss to the Ravens in Week 16. Six of Baltimore’s 22 points scored came on a fumble return for a score. The Chargers allowed 361 yards to Baltimore’s offense, sacked Jackson three times on only 22 pass attempts, and forced one turnover. If Jackson is forced back to drop back more often, the sack potential and turnover potential shoots through the roof for this group.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
