Welcome to Tiger Week on the PGA Tour. We finally get to the first “real” tournament of the year as our attention turns to Torrey Pines. How good of an event can it really be if El Tigre isn’t teeing up? He might not be the number one player in the world, but he just won the Tour Championship in Eastlake to end the 2018 season. Last year, he entered this tournament fresh off surgery and ranked as the 668th best player in the world. He finished T23 for the week and then embarked upon a remarkable comeback culminating with a world ranking of 13th. He moves the needle, and this week will be no exception. There will be tremendous buzz around this tournament, especially since he has been so successful at this famed course.
This should be a fun tournament, as seven of the world’s top-12 players are entered into this week’s event. Even though there is so much talent at the top of the price scale, it would not be a terrible decision to go light on them and instead load up on the middle tiers. Going balanced can work with a loaded field (24 of the top-50 players in the world playing this week). Additionally, golf has so much variance that paying down is not a bad strategy with this many top players competing. If you don’t believe in golf’s variance, then ask Adam Hadwin and Phil Mickelson how they feel getting beat last week by unknown Adam Long, who had missed the cut in eight of his previous nine events going into the Desert Classic.
All of the plays that I mention in this article are plays that I will consider for my lineups. That doesn’t mean I will end up with every guy that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Please realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most week-to-week variance. Anyone can miss a cut, and anyone can finish in the Top-5 (or even win). Remember to check the news and social-media reports before the first golfer tees off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
This is a 156-player field with the top 70 (and ties) making the cut and playing into the weekend.
The golfers will play two different courses in the first two rounds, but they will use the South Course exclusively for the weekend. The South Course is long (7,698 yards), has narrow fairways, and penal rough. The North Course is shorter (7,258 yards), also has narrow fairways, but has manageable rough if the drive misses those narrow fairways.
The last eight winners played the first round on the South Course. I am not sure that this will always be the case, but it’s been amazingly true for the last eight years. Perhaps it’s something to consider as a tie-breaker.
The greens are different at both courses. The South Course has Poa greens, and the North Course has Bentgrass greens.
Previous winners scheduled to play this week include Jason Day (2018, 2014), Jon Rahm (2017), Brandt Snedeker (2016, 2012), Scott Stallings (2014), Tiger Woods (2013, 2005-2008, 2003,1999), Ben Crane (2010), and Nick Watney (2009).
The average winning score in the last five years has been 9-under. The average cut line has been right at even par.
The tournament’s name changed from the Buick Open to the Farmers Insurance Classic in 2010.
RECENT FORM
Jon Rahm ($11,900)
Rahm has notched seven straight top-25 finishes, including two top-10 finishes to start off the year. He finished sixth last week at the Desert Classic and eighth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He is always a great fantasy point producer as well. By the way, he finished 29th here last year after winning in his first try in 2017.
Patrick Cantlay ($11,100)
His putter really let him down last week or else he probably would have won the Desert Classic. Regardless, he is still playing some of the best golf on tour. He has made 15 straight cuts, including four straight top-10 finishes. Even though the flat stick failed him this past weekend, he still finished ninth.
Mark Leishman ($10,800)
He has made 13 straight cuts. Leishman has finished in the top four in four of his last five events. Two of those occurred this month at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open. As for this event, he has two top-10 performances in the last five years.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Tiger Woods ($11,500)
Woods has won a total of eight times at Torrey Pines (seven at this event and once when it hosted the U.S. Open). In other words, 10 percent of his 80 PGA Tour wins have come at this course. He finished a respectable T23 last year in his first event after back surgery. Historically speaking, nobody is better on this course.
Jason Day ($11,300)
He has the most unique tournament history that you’ll see. In the past five years, he has either missed the cut or finished in the top five. He has two missed cuts (2017, 2016) sandwiched between wins in 2018, 2015, and his second-place finish in 2014. Overall, he has made the cut six of the nine times that he has played here with four top-10 finishes.
Charles Howell III ($11,000)
“Chucky Three Sticks” has made 14 straight cuts at this event. He finished T6 last year and T2 in 2017. He has four straight top-16 finishes and has placed in the top six in three out of the last four years. He is always a threat on the West Coast.
COURSE FIT
The South Course is the longest course on the PGA Tour. I will not automatically lock in the longest drivers because of the dangerous rough, but I will definitely be avoiding the shortest drivers. This course is just too long to be short off the tee, as it will put you at a big disadvantage. In the last 36 rounds, the following players have lost the most strokes when it comes to driving distance: D.A. Points ($7,000), Alex Cejka ($7,100), Ben Crane ($7,800), Roberto Castro ($8,400), and Rod Pampling ($7,100).
With the scoring typically lower at this tournament than most, I am looking for bogey avoidance. Sure, we always want golfers that can score, but consistently making pars is beneficial at this tournament. That is also a big reason that Woods has experienced so much success here. In the last 36 rounds, these are the golfers that rank in the top five in bogeys avoided: Rory McIlroy ($11,600), Billy Horschel ($9,400), Woods ($11,500), Kyle Stanley ($91,00), and Justin Rose ($12,000).
The rough at the South Course is very difficult, and the players will be on that course for three of the four days. Hitting the fairway is important, but if you don’t hit it just right, how do you manage the rest of the hole? I think a golfer’s ability to scramble will be a strong key to success this week. In the last 36 rounds, here are the top-five golfers in strokes gained on the rest of the field in terms of scrambling: Alex Noren ($10,500), Woods ($11,500), Castro ($8,400), Cameron Tringale ($7,200), and Patrick Reed ($10,400).
I’ve mentioned a number of times that the South Course is long and you have to be good off the tee. You need a combination of distance and accuracy. The top-five players in the last 36 rounds in shots gained off the tee: McIlroy ($11,600), Abraham Ancer ($9,400), Joaquin Niemann ($9,500), Cameron Champ ($9,800), and Luke List ($9,700).
FAVORITE STUD
Tony Finau ($10,500)
Finau is going to win an event at some point this year, and I don’t want to miss out on that occasion. Even when he doesn’t win, however, he is still in contention. He is also one of those players that scores better when it comes to fantasy production than his finishing position. He has finished in the top 25 in all four starts at this tournament, including a T6 last year and a T4 in 2017. He has made 14 straight cuts and has two runner-up finishes in his last four events. The only negative is that he hasn’t played since November.
FAVORITE VALUE
Xander Schauffele ($10,000)
The last time he teed it up, he defeated all the other 2018 PGA Tour winners at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He is the eighth-highest priced player on DraftKings at $1,000 more than the averaged roster spot, but you can pick him up at a discount on FanDuel. There are 17 players priced higher on FD than the 2017 Tour Champion. His price tag is right at the average for a roster spot. His history at this event is not great, but he tends to show up in big situations. A Thursday-Friday pairing with Finau and Woods at Torrey Pines should qualify as a big situation. Oh yeah, did I mention that he has three wins in his last four starts?
FAVORITE PUNT
Rory Sabbatini ($7,900)
If you are going to punt one of your spots to pay up for a stud, then Sabbatini isn’t a bad option considering he has finished in the event’s top 20 in each of the last two years. He has made the cut nine times in the last 13 times he has played here, including two top-five performances (2008 and 2002). He has made his last three cuts on the PGA Tour, including two in 2019. He is probably not going to give you a high finish, but if he makes the cut he’ll easily pay off his price and provide salary relief to pay up for one of the studs.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Rickie Fowler ($10,900)
Fowler is extremely talented and seems like a great fit for this course. If not for his partnership with Farmers Insurance, however, he would probably avoid this event like the plague. In the last five years, he has missed the cut four times! He did make the cut in 2015 but only finished in 61st place. There is no course history discount, as he is still priced in the top 10. He has played bad and is highly priced. That’s a hard pass for me.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. His DFS twitter is @WinningDFS101, and his website is www.FantasyFocusFootball.com. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
