Welcome to the wide receiver edition of the 2018 fantasy football four-year rank trends review. This data was pulled from our “Fantasy Leaders Report” to take a look at the top 25 WRs from the 2018 season. The table below breaks down the overall season rank for each WR over the last four years as well as their average fantasy points per game (PPG) using the half PPR scoring format.

This is intended to give us some valuable insight into past versus present performance and what to expect going forward from some of this season’s stars. This will also be a good reference when planning to draft for next season when recency bias takes over an individual player’s hype.

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The top-25 wide receiver list has a lot more players with established production compared to the volatility we saw when breaking down the RBs. Even with the wideouts though, only 12 of these guys with two or more years worth of experience have been able to average a top-25 finish over the last four years. Here’s an in-depth look at the top 25 wideouts with some honorable mentions below:

WR1: Tyreek Hill (KC)
Hill’s ascension to the top of the totem pole was finally realized in Patrick Mahomes‘ first season as a starter. Hill finished the year off with an 87/1,479/12 line, posting career bests across the board. The wide receiver position was a little tricky in 2018 when it came to scoring. While Hill is the top wideout in half PPR leagues, his PPG totals actually rank third behind Davante Adams and Antonio Brown, and if you play in full PPR leagues, DeAndre Hopkins was actually your overall WR1 and Hill was your WR3.

Still, he showed us more of that monster game ability with his world-class speed in 2018 as he has now trended up each season of his career. Hill and Mahomes will be an unstoppable duo for years to come.

WR2: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
As mentioned above, if you play in full PPR leagues then this is your overall WR1. Hopkins finished out the season with a career-high 115 receptions for 1,572 yards and 11 TDs. This is the second time Hopkins has crossed the 100-reception mark in his career and he has now garnered First-Team All-Pro honors in each of the last two seasons. He continued to be a vacuum on the Texans offense as he led the league with a 32.9% market share of his team’s targets. Hopkins has essentially been the recession-proof wide receiver as he has performed well no matter who has thrown him the ball in his career and has sat comfortably around the 17.5 PPG total in three of the last four seasons. Now with Deshaun Watson securely at the helm for years to come, Hopkins’ future is as bright as ever.

WR3: Davante Adams (GB)
With Jordy Nelson out of town, Adams enjoyed his first year as Aaron Rodgers‘ go-to WR1. Adams was awarded with a 111/1,386/13 final stat line in what was considered a down year for Rodgers. Even when Nelson was still in town, Adams had been trending up each season as he hit a career-high 18.3 PPG in fantasy in 2018. He also secured double-digit TDs for the third year in a row. The Packers are getting a coaching overhaul in 2019, but it probably won’t really matter much. As long as Rodgers is throwing the ball in Green Bay, Adams will continue to be a threat for overall WR1 numbers.

WR4: Antonio Brown (PIT)
Brown may not have been the overall WR1 this season, but he still finished as an elite option in fantasy football. Brown finished the season out with a 104/1,297/15 line, making this his sixth straight season with over 100 receptions. His 15 TDs also led all wideouts in 2018. While these numbers were spectacular, it’s crazy to think that for the first time since 2012, A.B. wasn’t the leading receiver on his team. Those honors went to JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose 111 receptions and 1,426 yards bested Brown’s numbers.

Brown has been as steady as they come in fantasy as his average rank of WR2.5 over the last four seasons is the best amongst all wideouts. It wouldn’t be a Steelers offseason without never-ending drama though. Brown looks like he could be headed elsewhere for the first time in his career in 2019. His status will be one of the biggest situations to monitor closely to see where he lands and how it could impact him in fantasy. It’s not crazy to think that the days of Brown being a lock as the overall WR1 in fantasy may have come to an end.

WR5: Julio Jones (ATL)
Jones had one of the best seasons of his career in 2018 as he finished the year out with a 113/1,677/8 line. He led the league in receiving yards as he went on to log over 100 yards in 10 games this season. Though the perfectionists of the fantasy industry like to gripe about Jones’ “limited” TD production as their bugaboo, he has still been the second-best wideout in the league on average over the last four years behind only Antonio Brown.

The Falcons are now getting former Buccaneers head coach, Dirk Koetter, as their offensive coordinator for 2019. Koetter actually spent the 2012-2014 seasons as the Falcons offensive coordinator as well. This could finally push Jones back into double-digit touchdown territory as 2012 was the only season in his career he had accomplished 10 TDs in a season when Koetter was the OC.

WR6: Michael Thomas (NO)
Thomas entered the league as a top-10 wideout back in 2016 and has never looked back since. Thomas finished as the WR6 for the second straight year, though as you can see he actually saw a boost in his fantasy production jumping from 12.9 PPG in 2017 to 15.8 PPG in 2018. Thomas’ receptions and yards have trended up each year and he even led the NFL with 125 receptions in 2018. He also led all wideouts with an impressive 85% catch rate, making him one of the most dependable targets in the league. Thomas will be a lock for borderline top-five production for as long as Drew Brees is throwing him the ball.

WR7: Adam Thielen (MIN)
Adam Thielen continued his climb on the final wide receiver rankings charts finishing out as a top-10 option for the second year in a row. He started the season on an absolute tear going for over 100 yards in each of his first eight games. Thielen’s rise over his career has been more of a slow and steady one as you can see based on his WR27 and WR122 rankings just a couple years back. With Stefon Diggs also in the mix making this more of a 1A and 1B scenario, Thielen won’t always be a lock to finish as the leading receiver on his team.

If the Vikings can establish more of a solid run game in 2019 and get a full, healthy season out of Dalvin Cook, we could see a slight dip in production from Thielen. The Vikings ranked 27th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards in the league according to Pro-Football-Reference. I would expect those numbers to rise a bit in 2019. I’m not completely bearish on Thielen going forward, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him drop closer to maybe a WR12-15 finish as opposed to WR7 again in 2019.

WR8: JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)
After finishing the 2017 season as the WR22, Smith-Schuster broke out in a big way in 2018 to finish as the WR8. The second-year talent rode the coat tails of Ben Roethlisberger’s league-leading passing totals and even surpassed Antonio Brown as the leading receiver on the Steelers.

Brown looks to be on the outs, Le’Veon Bell is a thing of the past, and it’s only a matter of time before Roethlisberger goes through his usual offseason mid-life crisis and debates retiring, getting a Mazda Miata convertible, and cruising the country with a hot blonde (or whatever his late-life fantasy is). One thing is certain, Smith-Schuster is here to stay and with A.B. out of the picture, it’s not crazy to think that Smith-Schuster could continue his rise in the league.

WR8: Mike Evans (TB)
There is a two-way tie at the WR8 position in half PPR leagues for 2018 as Evans shares the honors with Smith-Schuster. Evans was seeing some serious disrespect during fantasy draft season. It was even predicted that Chris Hogan would be a better option in 2018. The lack of love was understandable, after all, Evans did barely squeeze out a WR17 finish in a disappointing 2017 campaign. This is kind of where you start to see recency bias come into effect though as Evans was the WR2 in 2016.

Evans has also finished with double-digit touchdowns twice in his young career and topped 1,000 yards in every season he has been in the league. With Bruce Arians coming into town and the hope that he can get Jameis Winston to finally take that next step in his development, Evans could be in for another big season in 2019.

WR10: Robert Woods (LAR)
If you want to talk about no respect, Robert Woods is the Rodney Dangerfield of the 2018 wide receiver class. This is probably one of the quietest top-10 finishes in recent years as Todd Gurley rightfully gets all the praise for running the Rams offense. Woods impressed with his ability to create yards after the catch and has been a different man ever since leaving Buffalo. While Woods has trended up each of his last two seasons with the Rams, I would expect this to be right about where he stops. The Rams do run their offense through Gurley and Cooper Kupp was also M.I.A. for parts of the 2018 season, which gave Woods a little boost. I like Woods as a solid WR2 going forward, but a top-10 finish again would probably require help in the form of an injured key offensive player once again.

WR11: Stefon Diggs (MIN)
Diggs wasn’t too far behind fellow Vikings receiver Adam Thielen this season when all was said and done. Diggs averaged only 1.3 PPG less than Thielen in 2018 and has now also trended up in each of his last four seasons. This is especially good news considering the Vikings had somewhat of a disappointing season in Kirk Cousins‘ first year in Minnesota. Diggs and the Vikings don’t look like they have quite reached their full potential yet and a finish inside the top-10 could be in Diggs’ future soon.

WR12: Keenan Allen (LAC)
Allen didn’t fall too far off of his previous year’s production in 2018 finishing with just an average of 0.5 points per game less. With 2018 being such a high scoring season statistically across the league, however, that half point was enough to drop Allen from WR3 in 2017 to WR12 in 2018. What’s probably most important from Allen’s 2018 season is the fact that he was able to make it through all 16 games for the most part after missing significant time in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons.

The breakout of second-year talent Mike Williams will be interesting to follow going forward as well as the return of Hunter Henry. Both of these players could help open things up for Allen on offense but also potentially cap his TD upside. Philip Rivers will also be entering a contract year if the team doesn’t extend him during the offseason.

WR13: Brandin Cooks (LAR)
It doesn’t matter what team you put Brandin Cooks on; he will perform. Playing on his third team in the last five years, Cooks put up a career-best 1,204 receiving yards with the Rams. This also marks his fourth year in a row with over 1,000 yards. When looking at Cooks’ average ranks over the last four seasons, his consistency is even more impressive as his average rank of 11.8 puts him as the WR6 over that span. Cooks may not be the most consistent player from a week-to-week perspective, but you would be hard pressed to find a better player to lock into your WR2 slot in any lineup and his end of season numbers will be there.

WR14: T.Y. Hilton (IND)
With Andrew Luck back under center, Hilton had his best fantasy performance from a PPG perspective over the last four years. While a finish outside the top 12 is a little bit disappointing, the high scoring nature of the season had a little bit to do with that. Hilton finished with 14.3 PPG back in 2016 which was good enough for a WR5 finish that year. Even still, Hilton finished with over 1,000 yards for the fifth time in his seven-year career and is just a few seasons removed from leading the league in receiving yards back in 2016. The Colts are still very much on the rise and should continue to be one of the highest scoring offenses in the league in 2019.

WR15: Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Lockett was a pleasant surprise in an otherwise lifeless Seahawks passing game in 2018. The Seahawks sold out to run the ball in 2018 as they had the most rushing attempts in the league. On the flip side, they also attempted the least amount of pass attempts in the league. Lockett led the team with a 57/965/10 line, all of which were also career highs for him. He nearly doubled his PPG average from 2017 and the WR15 finish was easily the best of his career.

We’re starting to see some similarities between the career trend’s of Lockett and former Seahawks wideout Golden Tate forming. Tate finished with a 64/898/5 line in his fourth season with the Seahawks back in 2013 after trending up each season. Tate went on to have his best years with the Lions of course, but it’s still worth noting on behalf of Lockett as Doug Baldwin has been on a steady decline over the last four years. If this is a changing of the guard scenario in Seattle, Lockett should continue to trend upward and push for top-10 WR status as Baldwin did back in 2015 and 2016 (see table below under “Honorable Mentions”).

WR16: Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG)
Through the first eight weeks of the 2018 season, OBJ looked like it was back to business as usual after an injury-marred 2017 campaign. He was the overall WR6 at that point but unfortunately, the injury bug reared it’s ugly head again and cut Beckham’s season short for the second straight year. I don’t know that it’s quite time to panic here as you can see above that when OBJ is on the field, he’s producing. His 16.0 PPG in 2018 was the best he had managed since 2015.

Unfortunately for Beckham, the clock is running out on Eli Manning’s time with “Big Blue” as 2019 is a contract year for him. With no heir apparent yet selected, things could get murky in the Giants passing game as the team will likely lean more on Saquon Barkley going forward. First things first, let’s get a full healthy season out of OBJ in 2019. Second…maybe give the Eagles a call for Nick Foles?

WR17: Tyler Boyd (CIN)
After being a non-factor in each of the last two seasons, Tyler Boyd came out of nowhere to be a dominant threat on a tame Bengals offense. Anything that could go wrong did for the team in 2018, making Boyd’s third-year breakout one of the lone bright spots. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have been desperate for a WR2 to step up to take some of the pressure off of Green and it looks like Boyd may finally be that guy. With a complete coaching overhaul taking place and underrated talent all over on offense, we could see the Bengals take a big step forward in 2019. Boyd could creep closer to a top-12 finish if everything goes right.

WR18: Amari Cooper (DAL)
Cooper had one of the more interesting seasons amongst the top-25 wideouts this season. After wasting away on an inept Raiders offense, Cooper made his way to Dallas where he helped lift a struggling Cowboys passing game. While Cooper still struggled for consistency on a weekly basis, it wasn’t quite to the extent as we were used to seeing with him in Oakland. There was also the trademark monster game in Week 14 where Cooper put up a 10/217/3 line against the Eagles. The end of season stats don’t tell the whole story obviously as it looks like more of the same from Cooper in 2018, but there is plenty of reason for optimism going forward.

WR19: Jarvis Landry (CLE)
Despite leading the Browns in receiving in 2018, Jarvis Landry couldn’t live up to the lofty expectations he had set for himself in Miami as he had his worst fantasy season over the last four years. Landry registered a career-worst 81 receptions in his first year in Cleveland while his 976 yards were his second lowest and four TDs tied a career low. These are still pretty solid numbers to be considered as career lows obviously. With Baker Mayfield maturing and getting more comfortable in the league, Landry’s potential should grow as well. I would expect a slight uptick in production from Landry in 2019 as he should get closer to his average rank around WR12 and closer to his average of 12.2 PPG as well.

WR20: Calvin Ridley (ATL)
It took 20 spots, but we finally have our first rookie on this list. Ridley was the only rookie featured inside the top-25 this season in a class of underachievers. Through the first four weeks of play, Ridley looked like he was potentially the next big thing in fantasy football. During that span, Ridley posted a 15/264/6 line and that is with a zero catch performance in Week 1 included.

Things slowed down a bit from that point on. Ridley’s first season is somewhat comparable to what we saw from Smith-Schuster in his 2017 rookie year. Smith-Schuster, of course, went on to break out in a big way in his second year. There is potential for Ridley to take a big step in year two with Dirk Koetter taking over the reins as the teams offensive coordinator again. First, we need to get back-to-back consistent seasons out of Matt Ryan for that to happen.

WR21: Kenny Golladay (DET)
The man they call “Babytron” took a great leap forward in his second year that was unfortunately capped by the Lions inability to move the ball in 2018. Matthew Stafford apparently forgot how to pass the ball under first-year head coach Matt Patricia. That didn’t stop Golladay from notching his first 1,000-yard season of his career, however, as he led the team in receiving. Golladay just looked dominant in contested catch situations and flashed anytime he had the ball in his hands. With Golden Tate out of the picture, Golladay will battle Marvin Jones for WR1 duties in Detroit. There is potential for another big step next year if the Lions can pull their heads out of their tails.

WR22: Julian Edelman (NE)
Edelman’s appearance inside the top-25 is quite impressive considering he was suspended for the first four weeks. If you figure his 14.2 PPG over a 16-game span he would have been a fringe top-10 play in 2018. Like Tom Brady, Edelman has shown us little signs of slowing down despite his age. He has rarely played a full 16-game season in his career, so missing time is not out of the ordinary. The Patriots offense could look a little different in 2019 as Rob Gronkowski will undoubtedly debate retiring. As long as Tom Brady is throwing the ball though, we should have no problem expecting Edelman to be his safety valve.

WR23: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)
Sanders was on pace for one of the best seasons of his career before he tore his Achilles after Week 12. Despite Case Keenum leaving a lot to be desired at QB, he locked onto Sanders regularly in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Sanders’ 13.6 PPG were the best he’s recorded over the last four seasons. This is a tough injury for a receiver to come back from, especially considering Sanders’ age. Steve Smith made a decent go at it in recent years in a similar situation, but he never looked the same. Sanders will likely start the 2019 season on the PUP list making him a tough player to roster next season.

WR24: Mike Williams (LAC)
Williams was another wideout we saw have a solid second-year breakout. After looking lost and hurt during all of his rookie campaign, Williams looked well adjusted and defenses looked like they just plain forgot to cover him at times. Williams showed a nose for the end zone, which he will need next season as he will fight Hunter Henry for plenty of looks in the red zone. With Tyrell Williams likely out of town and Keenan Allen a moderate injury risk, Mike Williams could take another step forward in 2019.

WR25: Chris Godwin (TB)
Godwin rounds out the top-25 wideouts from 2018 just barely as he inched past Alshon Jeffery in the final rankings. Godwin was a favorite target in the red zone in 2018, but had a hard time fighting off Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson for snaps to take ahold of the WR2 role. Both Humphries and Jackson could be out of the picture in 2019 as Bruce Arians is set to take over this offense. Godwin could find himself in a much more favorable role in 2019 and will continue to hold sleeper appeal as he carries his breakout over to his third year.

Honorable Mentions

Here is a list of players worth mentioning in this research. A lot of these guys scored enough on a PPG basis to finish the season inside the top 25, but missed out due to injuries. Cooper Kupp and A.J. Green are the most notable as their PPG totals would have made them fringe top-10 plays over 16 games in 2018. On the other end, Doug Baldwin and Demaryius Thomas also stand out as players who have been trending down each of the last four seasons. Thomas, of course, was traded midseason while Baldwin sat by and watched Tyler Lockett potentially take over as the Seahawks WR1 going forward.

 
Fantasy Football RB Leaders: Four-Year Rank Trends
Fantasy Football QB Leaders: Four-Year Rank Trends

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John Ferguson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFerguson.