Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings (If 2018 rookies were still prospects)

by Bobby Sylvester | @bobbyfantasypro | Featured Writer
Feb 16, 2019

If Ronald Acuna was a prospect, would he rank above Vlad?

Most fantasy baseball drafts take place in March so we are still a month away from the big wave of fantasy baseball content. For those of you who play in (much better) dynasty leagues, however, you are likely in the full swing of fantasy baseball action. Every year, I get bombarded with the same type of question from eager dynasty owners, “How high would this sophomore be ranked if he was still a prospect”. Today, I’m going to answer that question. One hundred times. The table at the bottom of the article will show you where I would rank last year’s rookies if they were still eligible prospects, because let’s be real, they essentially are still prospects. Now that we have more hindsight from a year in the majors, their futures are a bit easier to forecast. In some cases, however, 2018’s surface level performances might not tell the full story, so first, I’ll tell you about five players I believe in much more than you would expect.

Check out the Top 500 Worldwide MLB Prospects Here>>

Walker Buehler (SP – LAD)
I never rank a pitching prospect in my top three. Why in the world would you when 50% of even the best get injured or end up in the bullpen? Forrest Whitley is my highest ranked in the game at #5, but if Buehler were a prospect, I’d put him #2 behind only Vlad Guerrero Jr. By the way, even Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto would be behind Vlad despite their incredible rookie campaigns. Vlad is the best prospect we’ve seen since Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Back to Buehler, though. His rookie season was extremely impressive, but to be frank, it was so much better than the general public seems to understand. In the second half, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a 2.03 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and just 2.7 BB/9. Not only that, but he was absolutely unhittable, allowing a league-low .164 batting average against. Here is the list of pitchers in the last 50 years who have accomplished that in any second half in their career: Roger Clemens, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Walker Buehler. That’s it. They all did it in their prime. Buehler did it as a rookie. Don’t be surprised if he wins multiple Cy Youngs including potentially in 2019.

Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL)
Now, before I convince you to bet your mortgage on Peralta, it needs to be mentioned that there is a chance he doesn’t make the Brewers rotation in 2019. Why? Because they must be incredibly stupid. We are looking at one of the most dominant rookies of all time. When I say dominant, I don’t mean all-around monster. What I mean is downright unhittable. When looking at youngsters, I like to use a stat I call the dominator index. It is simply K/9 minus H/9. Striking hitters out and preventing hard contact are the two most unteachable skills. You can teach Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan control, but you can’t teach Trevor Williams to strike out 11 batters per nine innings like Peralta did as a rookie (top 10 in baseball). In that time, he surrendered just 5.6 H/9 (2nd in baseball). His 5.4 dominator index was the second best for a rookie all-time behind only Kerry Wood. He might have the best fastball in the game and if he is anything like the other rookies within the top 10 of the dominator index leaderboard, he will be a perennial all-star before long.

Ryan McMahon (2B – COL)
The Rockies hate you. Every single season, they do everything in their power to ruin fantasy baseball’s hopes and dreams. Last year, it was keeping David Dahl from a full season and this year, it may be McMahon. They went out and signed Daniel Murphy, who granted, may slide over to first base, but if he sticks at second, it will prevent us from owning this year’s breakout middle infielder. McMahon may have struggled in a limited sample last year, but there are countless fantasy baseball studs with that on their resume as rookies. The fact of the matter is that the dude can hit. In 125 Triple-A games, he has tallied 68 extra-base hits with a .337 batting average. Over a full season, that would have been close to 90! Not only that, but he should steal double-digit bases as well while qualifying for potentially every position except shortstop and catcher.

Trevor Richards (SP – MIA)
Yes, I like a pitcher for the Marlins who carried a 4.42 ERA with 4 wins last year and formerly played independent baseball after going undrafted. It helps that he has the best changeup in baseball. Wait a second, let me fix that. It helps that he has the best pitch in all of baseball. Richards’ changeup is Trevor Hoffman-esque. It carried a 41.2% whiff rate with a .214 xWOBA. It certainly helped his performance when he adjusted by throwing it 38% of the time instead of 23% of the time at the start of the season. In those closing months, hitters were so focused on his filthy change-up that his slider suddenly became even more deadly than the changeup. With two of the most useful pitches in baseball, Richards could breakout this year in Miami much like Jake Peavy did in in 2004 after a rough start to his career.

David Paulino (SP – TOR)
I had to end things with a player many of you have never heard of, and those who have, probably forgot about him by now. The former top 50 prospect is 6’7″ with dynamite stuff, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his 5.48 ERA in 42 career MLB innings. He is the classic post-hype breakout sleeper. After striking out 39 in 33 innings last season in his comeback from injury, Paulino might find a way to sneak into the Blue Jays rotation. If he does, I’m betting on him being this year’s Joey Lucchesi that seemingly comes out of nowhere to help fantasy teams.

Prospect Rank Player 2019 ECR Team Pos
2 11 ATL OF
2 32 WSH OF
2 47 LAD SP
2 136 LAA DH/SP
5 68 NYY 2B
6 75 STL SP
11 84 NYY 3B
32 236 TB SS
36 397 OAK 2B
39 361 MIL SP
48 181 CLE SP
51 166 STL OF
53 290 COL 2B
54 298 STL OF
57 338 PHI SS
60 169 TB OF
62 484 ATL SP
63 398 NYY SP
64 188 CIN OF
77 190 CLE 1B
78 313 MIA C
79 193 SD OF
86 748 BAL C
90 311 SF SP
91 513 MIA OF
93 479 ARI C
95 483 ATL SP
98 208 OAK OF
99 249 TB RP
103 239 SD SP
108 257 ATL RP
114 259 STL RP
116 638 KC OF
117 478 SEA SS
120 502 TOR OF
125 365 MIA SP
132 359 MIL RP
135 379 MIL SP
136 248 TB 2B
138 657 TOR SP
141 386 TEX OF
142 184 TOR 2B
145 801 TOR SS
155 182 NYY 1B
156 573 LAD RP
158 507 MIA OF
159 272 PHI RP
161 384 MIA SP
166 357 SD OF
167 570 KC 3B
169 511 OAK OF
183 335 TEX 1B
195 320 KC 1B
204 332 CWS OF
205 415 TB SP
206 327 NYM 2B
213 807 PIT SP
225 595 MIN SP
226 728 STL SP
233 296 MIA RP
254 544 MIN 1B
255 473 DET RP
256 800 SD 3B
260 385 PIT 3B
261 492 TB RP
268 429 CIN OF
272 627 STL 3B
275 395 DET 2B
280 574 BAL 3B
281 269 MIA 3B
288 496 TB RP
292 634 PIT RP
296 475 MIN OF
298 585 LAA SP
299 532 COL C
301 802 STL OF
303 387 CLE OF
304 450 ARI 1B
316 569 CIN SP
320 493 CWS RP
327 417 TB RP
329 400 SD SP
330 643 TOR SP
332 489 SF SP
338 459 KC SP
340 705 OAK SP
347 Jaime Barria 803 LAA SP
348 460 SD RP
378 490 PIT SP
395 804 BOS RP
400 669 LAA RP
416 726 WSH RP
441 808 ATL RP
443 809 LAD RP
463 524 TB RP
466 805 BOS RP
470 806 KC SP
477 618 SD RP
490 540 OAK RP
499 810 SD RP

 

Thanks for reading and good luck this season. If you haven’t already, check out my podcast with guests featuring the top experts in the industry.

v

Bobby Sylvester is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Bobby, check out his archive and follow him @BobbyFantasyPro.

What's your take? Leave a comment

1Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
2Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
3Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
4Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
5Chris Carson (SEA)RB
6James Conner (PIT)RB
7Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
8Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
9David Johnson (ARI)RB
10Le'Veon Bell (NYJ)RB
 View all Flex Rankings 
11Aaron Jones (GB)RB
12Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
13DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
14Josh Jacobs (OAK)RB
15Julio Jones (ATL)WR
16Marlon Mack (IND)RB
17Phillip Lindsay (DEN)RB
18Latavius Murray (NO)RB
19Sony Michel (NE)RB
20Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
21Cooper Kupp (LAR)WR
22Michael Thomas (NO)WR
23Tevin Coleman (SF)RB
24Chris Godwin (TB)WR
25Tyler Lockett (SEA)WR
26Devonta Freeman (ATL)RB
27T.Y. Hilton (IND)WR
28Kenny Golladay (DET)WR
29Keenan Allen (LAC)WR
30Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE)WR
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (HOU)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (WSH)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
 View All Rankings 
11Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
19Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
26Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
27Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
Follow the Pros!

Follow us on Twitter @FantasyPros for exclusive advice and contests