On Thursday, the NBA saw its biggest in-season trade go down between the Knicks and Mavericks in a blockbuster deal involving seven players. The trade sent Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke and Courtney Lee to the Mavericks in exchange for Dennis Smith Jr., Wesley Matthews, DeAndre Jordan and two future first-round picks (2021 unprotected, 2023 protected top-10).
The foundation was in place for Porzingis to leave, as he has been unhappy with management and the direction of the organization for some time. Still, the trade seemingly came out of nowhere after a meeting between Knicks brass and Porzingis and his agent on Thursday. The move lends credibility to some rumors that have been floating around for months — the Knicks are all-in on free agency. By unloading Hardaway Jr.’s and Lee’s expensive contracts and likely buying out Jordan and Matthews, the Knicks will have the cap space to pursue Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant this summer.
It’s a bold move for the Knicks, especially considering that New York is no longer an attractive free-agent destination for many of the reasons Porzingis articulated to management before his departure. If the Knicks can land some big-time stars this summer, trading Porzingis will be viewed in a more positive light, but for now, the move smacks of desperation and further incompetence from James Dolan and his staff.
This is a massive trade with a lot of moving pieces, and it’s an exciting move for fans of the Association — but what does it all mean from a fantasy standpoint? Let’s go player by player and break it down.
Kristaps Porzingis (PF/C – DAL)
Porzingis “the Unicorn” is, of course, the centerpiece and most-talented player in this deal, and the Mavericks have got to be thrilled that they were able to get him at such a discount. At 7’3, he’s a force on defense, averaging 2.0 blocks per game in his career, but he is versatile on both ends of the court. Even at his height, Porzingis can still drain it from deep, and he is the prototypical stretch-five that NBA teams are so desperate to find. The Latvian’s injury history is a concern, but he’s a top-15 NBA talent with top-five potential when healthy.
He should find his way into the top-20 range in fantasy drafts next season depending on his health. Of course, Porzingis may not play again this season while recovering from an ACL injury, so his fantasy value will be projected into 2019-2020, where he will be the clear successor to Dirk Nowitzki. In the twilight of his career, Dirk has been a valuable mentor to Doncic, and he could certainly be the same for Porzingis. In three seasons, Porzingis has averaged 17.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.2 assists, but he made his first All-Star team last season behind career highs in points (22.7) and blocks (2.4).
Dennis Smith Jr. (PG/SG – NY)
DSJ should take over as the team’s primary ball-handler and number-one scoring option on a team bereft of playmakers. The move makes sense for Smith and the Mavs who have had a frosty relationship as of late, and Smith Jr. and Doncic did not fit well together on the same team. DSJ has not lived up to his pre-draft hype (ninth pick in 2017) but his arrow is pointing up in New York, and he should be viewed as a player to acquire in fantasy basketball leagues, where he likely won’t cost much.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG/SF – DAL)
Hardaway Jr. will head to the Mavs as potentially their second option on offense behind Luka Doncic (20.4 PPG). After the trade, the next highest scorers on the Mavs are Harrison Barnes (17.7 PPG) and Dwight Powell (8.4 PG), meaning Dallas needs offensive production from someone. Hardaway Jr. will join the starting lineup quickly and increase his scoring average from an already respectable 19.1 PPG.
Luka Doncic (SG/SF – DAL)
Doncic should slide over to the point with Dennis Smith Jr. gone, J.J. Barea out for the season, and Jalen Brunson not ready to handle the load yet. He’s the team’s leading scorer and active assists leader, and both of those stats should rise in the back half of the season as Doncic’s usage rate is likely to shoot up. He should be viewed as a top-30 player for the rest of the season with the potential for an even higher finish.
Trey Burke (PG/SG – DAL) and Courtney Lee (SG/SF – DAL)
Both of these guys will need to step up for the Mavericks after this trade took away 58.2 minutes of playing time and 26.0 points per game in the backcourt. Burke has shown some playmaking abilities with the Knicks this season, and he is a competent scorer when called upon to do so. He should see more court time in Dallas and get a bump in production. Lee has only appeared in 12 games for the Knicks this season, having fallen out of the rotation. He may see some additional playing time in Dallas, but his value won’t rise dramatically. He can remain on waivers in most leagues but can be grabbed as a speculative add in deeper formats.
Salah Mejri (C – DAL) and Maxi Kleber (PF – DAL)
Dallas will employ this tandem in the frontcourt for the time being, but neither player is particularly appealing. Both started on Thursday, and the pair combined for a modest eight points and 17 boards. Neither need to be picked up outside of very deep leagues.
Dwight Powell (PF/C – DAL)
He came off the bench on Thursday but played five more minutes than Mejri. He totaled 10 points, five boards, and an assist in 24 minutes of action. He’s the biggest frontcourt beneficiary of DeAndre Jordan‘s absence and should be scooped up where available as his usage is on the rise.
DeAndre Jordan (C – NY)
Jordan will likely get bought out, so what are his prospects elsewhere? Averaging a double-double this season, he will certainly have suitors. Likely landing spots: Lakers, Warriors, Rockets.
The Lakers have trotted out an over-the-hill Tyson Chandler, a “better-off-the-bench” JaVale McGee, and a talented yet unproven Ivica Zubac in their frontcourt rotation this season. Zubac could potentially be included in an Anthony Davis trade, so Jordan’s services would be valued in that scenario. Jordan is good friends with Kevin Durant, and the Dubs could use some frontcourt depth behind Boogie Cousins. Jordan would be an upgrade over current backup center Kevon Looney. The Rockets make sense, too. Kenneth Faried has gone full “Manimal” again, but with Clint Capela (thumb) still out, Houston could use the depth.
Wesley Matthews (SG/SF – NY)
Matthews will likely be bought out by the Knicks too, and he has attracted the interest of Western Conferences powers Golden State and Houston, both of whom could use a “3 and D” player. Matthews would be a great scoring punch for the Warriors’ second unit, and he would settle in as a consistent fantasy contributor. Playing for Golden State would present a safe floor, but his ceiling would be higher in Houston while his production would be inconsistent. The team takes a league-high 44.5 shots from beyond the arc, and Matthews is shooting 38.0 percent from deep this year. He would have the potential for some big nights but also for some duds with James Harden dominating the ball or on an off-shooting night. Matthews is averaging 13.1 points, 2.3 assists and 2.3 rebounds per game this season.
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This trade was ultimately beneficial to a handful of players’ fantasy values, and future trades and signings as an indirect result of it may provide additional value down the road. Speaking from a fan’s perspective, several new and interesting narratives have presented themselves through this deal — DeAndre Jordan/Wes Matthews may join a contender, Knicks take a huge risk and swing for the fences in free agency, Mavs find next Dirk and emerge from the ashes of their rebuild. The Feb. 7 NBA Trade Deadline is just six days away, and if Thursday’s blockbuster is any indication of moves to come, we will have a busy and exciting week ahead.
Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.
