“Life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all.” – Helen Keller
“…If there is no risk, there is no reward.” – Christy Raedeke
“Fortune favors the bold.” – Virgil

These quotations are helpful in giving someone that final nudge to do something bold that could become fruitful in the future. In the lead up to the NFL free agency period, smart and savvy dynasty owners need to take calculated risks in acquiring players who may find a new home. Think of it in terms of the stock market; you want to acquire a commodity (player) at their current value before the situation changes and said stock skyrockets in value. Buy the right players in February and you’ll be looking at a roster full of coveted dynasty assets come the spring and summer.

Today, we will look at Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman. The unrestricted free agent would see significant gains in his dynasty worth if he signed with the right team. Before we take a look at these preferred destinations, let’s take a look back at his career thus far.

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Early Career (2015-2018)

 
*Freeman only played two games in 2018 because of an injury

Coleman produced a pair of RB2 seasons in both 2016 and 2017, despite playing second fiddle to Freeman and only recording a 37% opportunity share. Thankfully, the IU alum was able to convert 57 total red zone opportunities (42 attempts, 15 targets) into 16 total touchdowns those two seasons to rescue his fantasy value. Heading into the 2018 season, the Falcons backup running back knew he was in for more of the same unless Freeman were to miss significant time.

With an unfortunate injury to Freeman, the stars seemed to align for Coleman to finally put up RB1 numbers in 2018. When the dust settled at the end of the season, he had both the highest fantasy finish and opportunity share of his career. Yet, Coleman had five contests scoring under 10 PPR points as the Falcons’ brass, assuming that he was leaving in free agency in 2019, wanted to give more work to both Ito Smith and Brian Hill towards the end of the season for evaluation purposes.

Opportunity is King
Coleman is a talented player, but outside of his work in the red zone, has not gotten a chance to put said talent on full display. For a player to be successful in fantasy football, he not only needs the talent to succeed, but the opportunity to do so. The former Hoosier isn’t the top running back prize of free agency, but factoring in transition tag drama (hi, Le’Veon Bell), he’s number one on the “no baggage” list.

Which teams offer the 6’1″ 210-pound runner the best chance to break through the RB1 ceiling? I will look at historical data of the offensive play callers at two potential landing spots that would offer him the best opportunity for fantasy success and one that’s nothing but a mirage.

Preferred Landing Spot #2: Baltimore Ravens
This destination is based on Alex Collins moving on from the Ravens in the 2019 offseason (restricted free agent), which has a high probability. Baltimore’s offensive attack resembled the old-school, grind-it-out style which many thought had gone extinct in the current spread era. Thanks to both the athleticism of Lamar Jackson and his limitations as a thrower, the Raven running backs ranked second in carries and first in yards per carry (5.42) after Jackson took the reins in Week 11.

Even outside of Collins, the Baltimore stable is lacking a true workhorse back. Yes, Gus Edwards‘ 718 rushing yards and two scores were impressive in the final 11 games of 2018, but he’s too one-dimensional (2 receptions for 20 yards) to handle lead back duties. Conversely, the same can be said for Javorius Allen (41 atts/110 yards) and Ty Montgomery (15/83) in the run game, leaving only Kenneth Dixon.

Sorry Dixon truthers, while he has the potential to be a lead back in the league, the team has to be growing frustrated with his lack of availability. The LA Tech product has only played in 18 of a possible 48 games in three years due to injuries and a PED suspension. Coleman represents the team’s best chance at a three-down running back with not only the ability to succeed in both facets of the offense, but the versatility not to tip the hand of the play caller based on backfield personnel. As the lead back in Baltimore, I expect a 60-65% opportunity share for the free agent runner and a top-15 fantasy finish with the ability to break into RB1 status based on his touchdown upside.

Preferred Landing Spot #1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the most attractive landing spot for a free agent in the 2019 offseason since the limitations of their 2018 draft pick at the position came to light. Tampa became an even more desirable destination for running backs when Bruce Arians signed on to be the head coach. Arians was a big fan of the committee approach at the running back position until he met one Mr. David Johnson.

Even then, Johnson wasn’t truly given the reins of the Arizona backfield until a little later in the 2015 season. Yet, once he did the sky was the limit (ranked in the top-six in points scored in 2015 and 2016) for both D.J. and the Cardinals offense. When the head coach lost his All-Pro back in the first game of 2017, he attempted to rotate a combination of mediocre younger players and past their prime veterans into the running back role with limited success (22nd in scoring).

Unfortunately for the first-year coach, the current crop of backs on Tampa’s roster closely resemble the group of misfits on the 2017 Cardinals. Peyton Barber did little last season in either the ground game (234/871/5) or the aerial attack (20/92/1). Ronald Jones was a healthy scratch for the first three games of the season, missed four games with a hamstring injury, and only totaled 77 yards in nine games played. The former Trojan is more likely to be traded for a seventh-round draft pick than to ever be a lead back. Jacquizz Rodgers is the same scat back he’s been for his entire eight-year career.

Coleman would immediately not only step into the three-down workhorse role for the Bucs, but an opportunity share over 70% and an RB1 finish is attainable given he stays healthy. Tampa already boasts some impressive weapons (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard) at the skill positions, but they have been missing a legitimate lead running back for the last two seasons. That search would end with the signing of the former Falcon.

Fool’s Gold Landing Spot: New York Jets  

 
*Jay Ajayi was traded to Philadelphia after seven games in 2017

The New York Jets were a top-flight (pun intended) dynasty destination for free agent running backs…until January 9 when they hired Adam Gase to fill their head coaching vacancy. Gase, as an offensive coordinator, was given credit for Denver’s historic outputs in the 2013 and 2014 seasons, even though Peyton Manning was the real OC of those squads. More recently, he’s managed to draw the ire of both Dolphin fans and dynasty degenerates alike for his questionable personnel decisions in Miami.

Taking Gase’s last four seasons at face value, it would appear his offense is ideal for fantasy running backs as he’s produced a top-15 player in three of the last four seasons. Yet, a closer examination of the data shows the new Jets’ leader is the less successful version of Bill Belichick in the games he plays with his backfields.

Following an impressive 2016 season, much was expected from Jay Ajayi from both the Dolphins faithful and the dynasty community after his head coach said he could see 350 carries. What transpired was frustrating at the time to both groups as Ajayi was traded after seven games to Philadelphia. Many questioned Gase’s decision until a new star out of Alabama named Kenyan Drake became a fan favorite and dynasty darling through the last nine games of the season. Drake averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game from Weeks 9-17 including 20-plus point barrages (23.1, 24.3, 23.3) in Weeks 13-15.

The same process repeated itself in the lead up to last season with the ‘Bama alum playing the Ajayi role. Last May, Gase said Drake was “really looking to bust out,” implying he would be in line for a lion’s share of the workload. While the Dolphins speedster finished as the RB14, his volume was sporadic from week-to-week as he had seven games where he failed to hit the 10-point PPR threshold.

If Coleman signs with the Jets, his perceived value will be much higher than his actual value. You will want to sell high on the IU product after the first instance of Gase coachspeak where he proclaims his new free agent “a three-down back,” or something similar.

Dynasty/Trade Value

Per the FantasyPros January Dynasty Trade Value Chart, Coleman has a value score of 29, which is lower than Royce Freeman, Tarik Cohen, and Rashaad Penny. All of whom I would happily trade straight up for the free agent back. In fact, I don’t believe the current price to acquire Coleman is too steep at all. According to the DLF Trade Finder, he’s been involved in the following deals since the end of the season:

• Coleman for Tyrod Taylor & James Washington
• Coleman & Sam Darnold for Deshaun Watson & Gus Edwards
• Coleman & Mark Andrews for 2020 first- and second-round pick
• Coleman for O.J. Howard
• Coleman for Allen Robinson
• Coleman for Kyle Rudolph
• Coleman for Kenyan Drake, Tyler Eifert, & 2019 second-round pick
• Coleman for Alshon Jeffery

First and foremost, the specific value of any player depends upon both the competitiveness of your league and the intelligence of the opposing owner in the negotiations. With that being said, one can only assume the dynasty owner who traded Coleman for Kyle Rudolph must be a member of the Viking tight end’s immediate family. Also, I’m a big fan of O.J. Howard, but if you’re in a non-tight end premium league and he’s your TE2, make a deal to acquire a player with high upside like Coleman.

While the majority of dynasty Twitter disagrees with me, I’d be more than pleased to trade Allen Robinson in a one-for-one deal for our hero. Robinson isn’t exactly the picture of health and looks like a shell of the player who had 1,400 receiving yards and caught 14 touchdowns in 2015. Yet, there are still some dynasty owners who believe he still is and/or can become that player again. Take advantage of these idealistic individuals.

Yes, trading for Coleman has its risks. He could sign with a team already set at the running back position like Minnesota or Dallas as an insurance policy. However, I believe his days of being an understudy are over and he will purposely choose a situation that gives him the best opportunity to become an RB1. By making a deal for Coleman right now, you could be acquiring an RB1 at RB2 prices, which afords you flexibility with your roster this offseason.

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Josh Brickner is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @joshbrickner.