FanDuel has priced only five golfers at $11,000 or higher for this week’s Honda Classic. By comparison, there were 10 golfers in the 11k range last week. Justin Thomas is the highest-priced golfer by a mile at $13,000 ($1,000 more than last week). Rickie Fowler is the next most expensive at $11,900. Brooks Koepka ($11,000), Sergio Garcia ($11,200), and Gary Woodland ($11,000) round out the 11k range. JT is probably too expensive, and I don’t love Fowler or Koepka, whereas I do love the mid-tier. FanDuel gives you $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. It looks like I will probably be looking at more of a balanced build this week.
All of the plays that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most variance from week to week. Anyone can miss a cut, and anyone can finish in the top five (or even win). Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
The Honda Classic is played at The Champions Course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. The difficult Par 70 course measures 7,140 yards and has narrow fairways averaging 24 yards in width. Year in and year out, this course is one of the toughest on tour. Last year, it was ranked as the second most difficult course on the PGA Tour.
144 players are scheduled to tee it up this week with the top-70 (and ties) making the cut and playing the weekend.
There are a number of obstacles that make the course difficult as water comes into play on 15 of the 18 holes. There are also nearly 100 bunkers on the course.
Stewart Cink and Sergio Garcia have made the most consecutive cuts here with nine and eight, respectively. They are the only golfers in the field that have made the cut here in each of the last five years. This is a difficult course and even the “horses” have missed cuts. For instance, in the last four years, JT has a first and third with two missed cuts.
The average winning score has been nine-under par and the cut line has averaged four-over par. No champion in the last six years has been in double-digits with their winning score.
After a number of tournaments with smaller or difficult greens composed of Poa grass, we now see averaged sized Bermuda greens.
Past champions of the Honda Classic scheduled to play this week include Justin Thomas (2018), Rickie Fowler (2017), Adam Scott (2016), Padraig Harrington (2015, 2005), Russel Henley (2014), Michael Thompson (2013), Rory Sabbatini (2011), Ernie Els (2008), and Vijay Singh (1999).
A playoff has decided three of the last five champions, including last year when Justin Thomas out-dueled Luke List.
The course features the “Bear Trap,” which is a three-hole finishing stretch (holes 15, 16, and 17) that really challenges golfers. There is a lot of water and difficult bunkers surrounding the greens on these three holes.
RECENT FORM
Justin Thomas ($13,000)
He had a “disappointing” ninth-place finish at the WGC-Mexico as he was all over the place with 66-73-74-62 scoring for the four days. Despite this, he has still finished in the top five in four of his last seven events. He has made 13 straight cuts on the PGA Tour. During that streak, he has nine top-10 finishes.
Gary Woodland ($11,000)
He leads the PGA Tour with 20 consecutive cuts. He has eight top-12 finishes in his last 11 events. He underwhelmed this past week but still grinded his way to a T17 at the WGC-Mexico Championship. He is also the top fantasy points producer in the last 50 rounds of golf. He is playing well both in terms of fantasy and real-life golf.
Cameron Smith ($10,700)
The Aussie currently has the third longest streak on the PGA Tour for consecutive cuts with 15 events. He quietly had a great WGC-Mexico finishing T6. He has three top-15 finishes in his last six events, including a win back in December at the Australian PGA Championship. In terms of fantasy production, he is the sixth-ranked player in this week’s field in the last 50 rounds played.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Sergio Garcia ($11,200)
He has made the cut each of the last five years (Stewart Cink is the only other person to do that in the field). His worst finish was 33rd last year. He finished 14th in 2017 and runner-up in 2016. Overall, he has made the cut each of the eight times he has teed it up for the Honda Classic. He trails only Adam Scott in Strokes Gained: Total at the Honda Classic over the last five years.
Adam Scott ($10,800)
Four straight top-15 finishes, including a win in 2016 for Scott. Overall, he has made the cut in six of his seven tries here at the Honda Classic.
Stewart Cink ($9,100)
His best finish is only a 12th-place finish way back in 1998 but he has made nine straight cuts, including the last seven years. It will be difficult to get all six of your golfers through to the weekend, so he stands out as a potential cut maker this week.
Graeme McDowell ($9,100)
He has four top-10 finishes out of the 10 times that he has played the event. Unfortunately, he missed the cut last year (as well as 2015). He made the cut in all of his other eight starts. He is ranked 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at this tournament over the last five years.
COURSE FIT (KEY STATS)
Shots Gained: Putting (on Bermuda)
We get Bermuda greens for the first time in a while. In looking at players that tend to putt well on Bermuda, we find three players that are ranked in the top 10 for both the last 50 rounds (long form) and the last 12 rounds (short form) on Bermuda surfaces. Brian Gay ($9,200), Graeme McDowell ($9,100), and Denny McCarthy (7,900) are guys that could really heat up with the flat stick this week.
Bogey Avoidance
This course plays difficult and the winning score is usually in the single digits. It is always good to make birdies (or even eagles) but when a course is difficult and scoring is hard to come by, making par is a good score. There are five players in the field this week that rank in the top five on the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance this year. Webb Simpson ($10,600), Daniel Berger ($10,400), Lucas Glover ($9,700), and Kevin Tway ($8,700) have been playing some consistent golf this year and avoiding big numbers.
Strokes Gained: Scrambling
Related to bogey avoidance is scrambling. Most likely par is going to be a good score this week and no one is going to run away with the tournament like DJ did last week. You might want to look at some grinders – guys that can scramble. In looking at the last 12 rounds and last 50 rounds on difficult courses, there are five guys that ranked in the top 10 for both of those categories in Strokes Gained: Scrambling. Cameron Smith ($10,700), Webb Simpson ($10,600), Zach Johnson ($9,900), Jim Furyk ($9,200), and Whee Kim ($7,400) are some guys that could hang around during the week and be in decent position come Sunday.
FAVORITE STUD
Gary Woodland ($11,000)
After two straight weeks of picking DJ in this spot, we went with Rory last week. That worked out well, and I hope that you played one of them (or both) last week and saw some green screens. On paper, JT is the clear stud this week. Obviously, if we are in the weight room, then Brooks Koepka is the stud. I don’t mind Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia this week but my favorite two plays in the $9-11k range are Gary Woodland and Webb Simpson. My pick to win the tournament is Gary Woodland. His form is great right now. His course history isn’t amazing but remember that he wasn’t at all the same player last year at this time as he is now. He was runner-up at Honda in 2017. He made the cut in 2018 and 2016, as well. See above in the “Recent Form” section for more on Woodland.
FAVORITE VALUE
JT Poston ($8,900)
In the last 36 rounds, he is 11th in fantasy scorers among the 144 players in this field. He is finishing okay in his recent tournaments. Five straight cuts, including a T7 at the Desert Classic but he typically is a player that outperforms his finishing position. At the end of the day, we want players that can score fantasy points and Poston can do that. This price is a little higher than I’d like to pay for him, but we get a huge site discount as he is the 19th most expensive player on DraftKings but only 37th on FanDuel. He didn’t play at Honda last year but finished 27th in his only trip here in 2017. Poston might be the best low-priced value but possibly the best overall FD value is Billy Horschel. Billy Ho ($9,900) is priced $900 above the average roster spot on DK. He legitimately could win this tournament.
FAVORITE PUNT
Kelly Kraft ($7,700)
My punt play last week (Joost Luiten) made me some money as I loaded up on him. He finished T10. We’ll see if we can find another hidden gem this week. Punts rarely work out like last week with upper-level fantasy production. Typically, we are just trying to get a made cut out of our punt in order to save salary to spend up on a stud. With that being said, I am going to be a little greedy and look for someone that may not be safe but gives us some upside. Kraft has missed the cut in five of his last six events, so he is certainly not a safe pick. However, his most recent event (after five straight missed cuts) was the Genesis Open, and he finished tied for ninth with Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, and Dustin Johnson. Last year, he finished in eighth place at the Honda Classic. He has some upside. We also get a site discount on him as he is priced at $7,500 on DraftKings.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Brooks Koepka ($11,400)
This one is easy for me as Brooks is not playing like the number four player in the world. He is not dialed in at all, but he is still priced as the third most expensive golfer. His track record at Honda is nothing to write home about. He missed the cut in 2017, which was the last time he played here. His best Honda finish is 26th. With all of that said, in the past, a motivated and dialed in Koepka is hard to beat. Nothing is pointing to it all coming together which is why I will be fading him completely. Overall, this is a week that I might just avoid the top-tier players and look to build a more balanced lineup as I really like Woodland, Simpson, and Horschel.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
