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FanDuel PGA Preview: WGC-Mexico

FanDuel PGA Preview: WGC-Mexico

You are probably going to like your lineup this week on FanDuel as most of the top players in the world are playing at the World Golf Championship in Mexico. There are 72 golfers in the stacked field, so some high-level golfers are going to be priced lower than normal. However, a word of caution when approaching WGC events. These events are no-cut events, which means that every golfer will play all four rounds (unless they withdraw like Henrik Stenson did in 2017 when seemingly half of the DFS community had him). Because of this, do not get too high or too low about your results until Sunday. There will be a lot of movement on the leader boards and from a fantasy standpoint, there should be plenty of scoring as a bad round or two doesn’t matter as much.

There are 10 golfers priced at $11,000 or higher on FanDuel. Justin Thomas is the highest-priced golfer at $12,000. He is priced just barely ahead of Dustin Johnson ($11,900) and Jon Rahm ($11,700). FanDuel gives you $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Out of the 72 golfers in the field, 21 of them are at or above the average. You will find some nice values this week and should feel good about your lineup. If you don’t like your lineup then you need to redo it.

All of the plays that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most variance from week to week. Anyone can miss a cut, and anyone can finish in the top five (or even win). Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!

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TOURNAMENT NOTES

The WGC-Mexico Championship is played at Club de Golf Chapultepec. It is a Par 71 measuring 7,345 yards. However, with the extreme elevation of Mexico City, the course actually plays closer to 6,700 yards. The ball will travel about 9% further on most shots.

The fairways and rough are Kikuyu grass and the greens are Poa Annua. Both of these surfaces are the same as what we saw last week at Riviera.

This is only the third year that the tournament has been played at this golf course. Phil Mickelson defeated JT last year in a playoff. He finished 16-under par. In 2017, DJ finished 14 under par besting Tommy Fleetwood by one stroke.

As a World Golf Championship event, each player in the top-50 of the Official World Golf Rankings gets an invitation. Justin Rose, Jason Day, and Adam Scott are the only golfers inside the top-30 of the Official World Golf Rankings that are not participating this week. Last week’s winner (J.B. Holmes) is also not participating.

This is the first look at many of the European Tour’s best. If you are looking only at statistics, you will need to adjust how you look at them as the European Tour results and stats do not get calculated into the PGA Tour’s stats.

Seven golfers have finished in the top 15 both times they’ve teed it up at the WGC-Mexico: Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Thomas.

RECENT FORM

Justin Thomas ($12,000)
Four top-five finishes in the last six events is not too shabby. Never mind his atrocious putting on Sunday at Genesis. Those things happen once in a while, and yet he still finished in second place. He has also done great at his last three short-field or no-cut events finishing third at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, seventh at last year’s Tour Championship and winning the 2018 WGC-Bridgestone.

Xander Schauffele ($11,100)
I had a cut sweat with him last week after a terrible Round One, but he regrouped and did what Xander does and that is score. He ended up finishing 15th giving him his seventh top-15 finish in the last 11 events. He also has three wins in his last seven events. This includes the WGC-HSBC Championship and the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which are the tour’s last two no-cut events. Three of his four career wins on the tour have come in no-cut events or short-field tournaments (2017 Tour Championship).

Haotong Li ($8,900)
Has eight top-12 finishes in his last 10 events. In four of those events, he finished in the top five. This includes his last event in Saudi Arabia when he was beaten out by only Dustin Johnson.

Tom Lewis ($7,000)
Obscure European Alert! You probably haven’t heard of him, but he has been playing well. Lewis has made 13 straight cuts, not that it matters in a no-cut event, but it just demonstrates that he is playing decently. During that stretch, he has seven top-10 finishes, including a win. Three weeks ago, he finished third in Saudi Arabia and made the same number of birdies as DJ did in winning. By the way, he is the stone minimum price at $7,000 on FD, compared to $7,000 on DK.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

Justin Thomas ($12,000)
Lost in a playoff last year to DJ after finishing fifth in 2017. In related information, last year he won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and finished fourth at the WGC-Dell Matchplay event. He opened the 2019 calendar year with a third-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. These were all no-cut events.

Dustin Johnson ($11,900)
What course or tournament hasn’t he been good at? He finished seventh last year after winning the event in 2017.

Phil Mickelson ($11,000)
The defending champion finished seventh in 2017. He is a gambler and a fantasy scorer, which plays well at these no-cut events. Only JT and DJ have scored more fantasy points at this course in the last two years than Lefty has.

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300)
He fell short by one stroke to DJ in 2017 and then finished 14th last year. In the last two years, he has gained the fifth-most number of strokes on the field. Most importantly, he has scored the fourth-most amount of fantasy points at this course in the last two years.

Tyrrell Hatton ($9,200)
Finished third last year after a 10th place finish in 2017. In the last two years playing on this course, only Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, and Phil Mickelson have gained more total strokes on the rest of the field than Hatton.

COURSE FIT (KEY STATS)

Shots Gained: Approach
Justin Thomas ($12,000), Hideki Matsuyama ($10,900), and Patrick Cantlay ($10,400) are the only three golfers that rank in the top-10 for both the last 12 rounds and 36 rounds played.

3-Putt Avoidance
The Poa greens are fast and undulating. They have been unpredictable in the past. Finding a player that could get hot with the flat stick starts with a player that doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot and gives themselves a chance to on the putting green. There are five players that rank in the top-10 on the tour when it comes to 3-putt avoidance on Poa in both the last 12 and 36 rounds: Dustin Johnson ($11,900), Tony Finau ($10,700), Patrick Reed ($9,900), Cameron Smith ($9,700), and Kevin Na ($8,600).

Fairways Gained
Distance off the tee isn’t necessary at this event. The course plays much shorter than its official length. The fairways are narrow, and the dense and penal tree line can make the second shot difficult so being accurate off the tee is important. There are six golfers that rank in the top-10 for hitting fairways in both the last 12 and 36 rounds: Gary Woodland ($10,100), Matt Kuchar ($9,800), Henrik Stenson ($9,600), Chez Reavie ($9,400), Keegan Bradley ($8,900), and Abraham Ancer ($8,400).

FAVORITE STUD

Rory McIlroy ($11,600)
It is hard to go wrong with anyone at the top end of the pricing scale. My guess is that one of the top four or five guys will win the tournament. A balanced approach is never a bad strategy in golf because of its variance. But, in no-cut events, a “stars and scrubs” approach has more appeal than in a normal tournament. I love Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas for the reasons I stated above. They are playing really good golf and seem to excel in these short-field or no-cut formats. But, I think Rory is set up to have a nice week in Mexico. He had an opening round 72 at the Genesis and rallied to finish fourth, giving him his third straight top-four finish. In the last 36 rounds, he is the second-best fantasy producer. As far as no-cut or short-field events, he was finished fourth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and seventh at the 2018 Tour Championship, and sixth at the 2018 WGC-Bridgestone. He didn’t play in Mexico last year but finished seventh in the 2017 WGC-Mexico Championship.

FAVORITE VALUE

Gary Woodland ($10,100)
Eight top-12 finishes in the last 10 events is pretty good. Forget his below average finishes the last two years at this event. He is a completely different player right now. He leads the tour with 19 consecutive cuts, which shows how well he has been playing. He was runner-up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He finished seventh at the Waste Management, which is the last tournament that he played in. Nobody has scored more fantasy points in the last 36 rounds than Woodland.

FAVORITE PUNT

Joost Luiten ($7,800)
Only 11 guys are priced lower than him. Just because you haven’t heard of him doesn’t mean you should dismiss him. He has finished in the top six in two of his last three events on the European Tour. Overall, he has made the cut in 13 of his last 15 events, which speaks to his consistency. He has seven top-11 finishes during that time, including a win. He has finished 37th and 25th at the WGC-Mexico Championship the last two years. He is currently seventh on the European Tour in scoring average and third in Shots Gained: Approach (which is a key stat for us this week). Tom Lewis, as mentioned above, is the minimum price and an intriguing option as well.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION

Patrick Reed ($9,900)
At first glance, you might like a past winner at this event at a decent price. However, realize that Reed did not win his WGC event in Mexico. Even more importantly, his form is nothing spectacular. He has seven straight events in which he has failed to crack the top 10. But, ironically his last top-10 finish was at a WGC event. I have played Teed a lot since his Masters win hoping that I catch lightning in a bottle again but haven’t done so. He isn’t a bad play since his ownership will likely be lower, but I haven’t seen the form out of him lately (including the Ryder Cup) to give me true confidence that he can get it done this week. There are just too many better options than him in this price range from an equity standpoint (Cantlay, Woodland, Simpson, Sergio, Fleetwood) and from an ownership standpoint (Bubba, Molinari, Horschel). You can also pay up just a little bit more and get a low owned Paul Casey.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.

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