Welcome to the tight end edition of the 2018 fantasy football four-year rank trends review. This data was pulled from our “Fantasy Leaders Report” to take a look at the top 12 TEs from the 2018 season. The table below breaks down the overall season rank for each TE over the last four years as well as their average fantasy points per game (PPG) using the half PPR scoring format. If you missed this article from other positions, you can find them here:

QB | RB | WR

This is intended to give us some valuable insight into past versus present performance and what to expect going forward from some of this season’s stars. This will also be a good reference when planning to draft for next season when recency bias takes over an individual player’s hype. I actually use this exact information in a modified form as my fantasy draft cheat sheet. I’ll post those for you to download for free on Twitter as we get closer to the season so make sure to give me a follow. Here’s a look at the top-12 TEs from 2018 as well as some honorable mentions below:

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There are a few notable things to go over when looking at these stats. Experience is key as 2/3 of the players in the top 12 in 2018 have played at least four years in the league. We see a lot of familiar names on this list as well as seven of the 12 players listed have averaged top-12 finishes over the last four years. There were also a couple surprise veteran breakouts such as Jared Cook, Eric Ebron, and Vance McDonald. Let’s take a closer look at each individual player from the top-12:

TE1: Travis Kelce (KC)
Kelce has obviously been the most dominant tight end in the league over the last four years. Even back when Alex Smith was throwing him the ball, Kelce was a league leader. Now with Mahomes under center, Kelce had a career year across the board in receiving stats and should continue his reign on top of this chart for years to come. Having Kelce in your TE spot in fantasy gives you a huge advantage over your competition which justifies his usual second-round draft price. The difference in PPG between the TE1 and the TE6 was 7.2 points in 2018. That’s like starting out your game with more than a full TD lead every week.

TE2: Zach Ertz (PHI)
There’s a funny trend with Ertz’s PPG and rank trends when comparing them to Kelce. Ertz has basically just been one step behind Kelce every step of the way with only a one point per game differential between them over the last four years. Ertz famously broke Jason Witten’s single-season receptions record for a tight end in 2018 which obviously gives him a little boost in full PPR leagues. He has also been one of the only consistent producers for the Eagles offense, having led the team in receiving in each of the last three seasons.

Ertz has consistently trended up each of the last four years and there is actually still a little room for him to grow if he pushes for overall TE1 status in 2019. You can’t bank on 100+ receptions again but if he can get close to 90 receptions and keep that healthy eight TD rate going, it could happen.

TE3: George Kittle (SF)
Kittle was a one-man band for the 49ers in 2018 and also one of the last starters standing by mid-season. He actually led all tight ends with 1,377 receiving yards in 2018 and was basically just a TD and a handful of yards shy from surpassing Ertz as the overall TE2. The fact that Kittle did pretty much all of this damage without Jimmy Garoppolo under center is incredible. You have to wonder what the potential could be like with Jimmy G in 2019. A reshuffled wide receiver corps will also be a big determining factor in what kind of production we can expect from Kittle going forward. As of now, you have to lock him into top-five consideration once again at worst.

TE4: Eric Ebron (IND)
It seems all Ebron needed was a change of scenery to finally flourish in the NFL. After being selected with the 10th-overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft by the Lions, Ebron never lived up to the expectations set by his draft price. He wasn’t a complete ghost, though, as he ranked close to the top 12 in fantasy between 2015-2017. Ebron’s two bugaboos in Detroit were dealing with a massive case of the drops and a lack of presence in the end zone. He fixed one of those at least with the Colts by catching 13 TD passes which more than doubled his career total before 2018. His 60% catch percentage was the second-worst mark of his career, however.

The Colts should make a big splash in free agency this offseason as they have the most cap space in the league with over $111 million available according to Spotrac. A desperate need to upgrade their WR2 position has been long overdue and the healthy return of Jack Doyle are two big knocks on Ebron’s value going forward. I would consider selling high on Ebron in dynasty formats during the offseason.

TE5: Jared Cook (OAK)
Better late than never is the best way to look at Jared Cook’s 2018 season. Cook was a fringe top-12 tight end in 2017 but finally broke through in 2018 with the best fantasy finish of his career. He has now been the leading receiver for the Raiders in back-to-back seasons as he heads into free agency in 2019. Cook was the definition of boom-or-bust in 2018 with four games of 100 yards or more and 10 games under 50 yards. On a Raiders team that at times saw the likes of Brandon LaFell and Marcell Ateman as the WR1, it’s no wonder Cook did so well.

It sounds like the Raiders may consider bringing Cook back for 2019 which would probably be the best case scenario for him from a fantasy standpoint. The Bengals are also another potentially attractive landing spot for Cook if they want to add veteran talent. All three of Tyler Eifert, C.J. Uzomah, and Tyler Kroft are set to be free agents in 2019 leaving the team’s tight end room pretty much empty.

TE6: Austin Hooper (ATL)
A lot of people talk about how quiet of a season Hooper had considering he finished the season as the TE6, but it’s hard to make a lot of noise when you’re only scoring 8.0 PPG in fantasy. Nevertheless, Hooper has an attractive trend going on here over the last three years and with Dirk Koetter coming back to the Falcons as offensive coordinator, things could get interesting for Hooper. Koetter and crew were able to squeeze two top-10 performances out of the likes of Cameron Brate in Tampa Bay. Even if Hooper stays around the 8.0 PPG range it should be good enough to keep him inside the top-10 in 2019. The presence of Julio Jones and emerging talent of Calvin Ridley put a cap on Hooper’s ceiling which should keep him from getting closer to the top five.

TE7: Trey Burton (CHI)
Burton is another player who had a “quiet” finish inside the top-eight tight ends. Burton served as the fourth option in the Bears passing game in 2018 behind Allen Robinson, Tarik Cohen, and Taylor Gabriel. The TE6 and TE7 spots are where we start to see a big dip in production compared to the leaders. When looking at Burton’s trends, you’ll notice they are significantly skewed due to the fact that it includes his time with the Eagles where he primarily served as the backup the Zach Ertz.

Now in Chicago, Burton could see his role grow on this young offense on the rise. I like Burton as a borderline top-10 guy in 2019, but you have to consider if we get completely healthy seasons out of guys like Delanie Walker, O.J. Howard, and Hunter Henry, this could all negatively affect Burton’s final overall rank.

TE8: Kyle Rudolph (MIN)
Rudolph essentially tied with Trey Burton in 2018 as both finished the season with 7.5 PPG. Despite trending in the wrong direction each of the last three seasons, Rudolph’s four-year average rank of 7.8 puts him third behind only Kelce and Ertz. I am guilty of being one of the hopeful few that saw the potential for Rudolph to jump inside the top-five in 2018, but that didn’t quite happen. An interesting note that this chart doesn’t show you is that Rudolph is the last player inside the top-12 in 2018 who actually played all 16 games. So, as you can see, his PPG isn’t quite as high as others like Evan Engram and Rob Gronkowski.

There has been some speculation of Rudolph potentially being a cut candidate in the offseason in the final year of his contract as he would leave nothing behind in dead cap space. I personally don’t buy that as I don’t see a better option behind him and though there is a wealth of talent at tight end about to come into the league via the NFL Draft, Rudolph is still a solid, experienced threat in the end zone. Even if this downward trend continues for Rudolph, I think he remains a fringe top-12 option at worst.

TE9: David Njoku (CLE)
Njoku enjoyed a nice second-year breakout thanks in part to the sensational rookie season Baker Mayfield put out. Njoku got off to a slow start in 2018 as he didn’t find the end zone until Week 6. He served as the team’s distant second receiving option behind Jarvis Landry. It will be interesting to see how the Browns address their depth issues at WR during the offseason. We could see some new targets come into this offense which could shakeup Njoku’s value a little. He hasn’t fully lived up to his first-round draft pick pedigree, and he needs to clean up his drops, but the talent is there and you can tell Njoku has more to offer down the road.

TE10: Vance McDonald (PIT)
McDonald was the biggest surprise for me to see finish the season as a top-10 option at tight end. McDonald’s ranks and PPG totals are all over the place due to his inconsistent play and constant health issues. He’s basically Jordan Reed with less upside. We got some punishing play’s out of McDonald during the 2018 season including one of the nastiest stiff-arms to date:

#GoBucs safety Chris Conte placed on injured reserve after absolutely brutal stiff-arm from #Steelers‘ Vance McDonald 🤕
➡️ https://t.co/gGibrgDX7r pic.twitter.com/vRZHvjL8bD

– Yahoo Sports NFL (@YahooSportsNFL) September 26, 2018

I could watch that play all day! McDonald is an interesting player moving forward with fellow tight end Jesse James set to become a free agent. If McDonald could lock into sole TE1 duties and stay healthy, we could see him better his numbers from 2018.

TE11: Rob Gronkowski (NE)
A year after finishing as the overall TE1, Gronk barely made the cut in the top 12 for 2018. This has been his trend over the last four years as he gets ready to hang up his cleats. We still see flashes of “prime” Gronk here and there, but we also see him struggling to be the dominant force he once was. Gronk saw a four-year low with his PPG totals in 2018 falling below double digits for the first time. Even with this down year, Gronk is still neck-and-neck with Travis Kelce as the overall TE1 over this four-year period. It’s yet to be seen how much longer we will see Gronk out there and with each passing year it gets a little tougher to consider taking him inside the top three rounds of fantasy drafts.

TE12: Evan Engram (NYG)
Engram only managed to play in 11 games in 2018 which is the primary cause of his lower rank. If you go strictly off of PPG totals, Engram was the overall TE7. He has bizarrely put up the same PPG totals each of the last two seasons, the difference being that the same totals ranked him inside the top-five in 2017. Engram continues to prove a consistent threat on offense, often looking more like a WR than a TE with the ball in his hands. It’s only a matter of time before we see Eli Manning ride off into the sunset, in which case we could actually see a boost in production from Engram depending on who takes over. The Giants are my personal favorite landing spot for Nick Foles, but that may not happen. Either way, Engram should continue pumping out borderline top-five numbers for quite a while.

Honorable Mentions

 
Every player on this honorable mention list has either ranked inside the top 12 in recent years or has scored enough average points per game to be considered a TE1. Jordan Reed is just such a crazy story. He has the fourth highest PPG total of any tight end but just can’t string a full healthy season together for the life of him. Delanie Walker hasn’t been spoken of much lately due to him missing pretty much the entire season, but if he is back and healthy for 2019, his numbers show that he has been one of the most consistent tight ends right around the top five in recent years. Hunter Henry should easily flirt with top-10 numbers in 2019 in what will hopefully be his first full season as a starter sans Antonio Gates. O.J. Howard was a top-five tight end until he ended the season on injured reserve for the second year in a row. Jimmy Graham took a sharp nosedive in 2018 that he may not recover from after back-to-back seasons inside the top five.

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John Ferguson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFerguson.