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Players to Avoid at their Current ADP (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Players to Avoid at their Current ADP (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

We’ve recently looked at players our writers believe to be breakout candidates, both hitters and pitchers. While landing a breakout star can certainly vault you to the front of your league, making an early blunder in your drafts can equally set you back. With the focus early in drafts being on avoiding mistakes, we’ve asked our writers to provide players they are avoiding the most inside the top 30 of our Expert Consensus Rankings.

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Which player in the top 30 ECR are you avoiding?

Javier Baez (2B, 3B, SS – CHC): ECR 23 / ADP 17
“Baez posted a 34/21 season with 101 runs, 111 RBI, and a .290 AVG in 2018, but I’ll take the under on literally all of those marks in 2019. Per Baseball Savant, his xBA and xSLG in 2018 for his batted-ball data were .264 and .491, respectively. According to FanGraphs, among qualified hitters last year, Baez’s 45.5% O-Swing% and 18.2% SwStr% were both the second highest marks, respectively. Toss in that he was caught stealing nine times in 30 attempts (70% SB success rate), and a slight dip in success rate could cause him to get more stop signs. Add it all up, and there are plenty of warts here that will provide me incentive to look elsewhere in the top 30.”
– Josh Shepardson (@BChad50)

“While Baez is coming off of a great 2018, I’m going to try to avoid him coming into the 2019 season. He slashed a solid .290/.326/.554 with 34 home runs and 40 doubles, but I’m expecting these numbers to regress. Different projection models such as Steamer, RotoChamp, TheBat, and ATC are all predicting his BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, RBI, and SB to fall down as well. His BABIP was a career-high .347 last season and that number should also be falling a bit this year. I’m not buying any shares this season based on his current rank.”
– Kamran Hoda (@Kamran_H7)

Andrew Benintendi (OF – BOS): ECR 26 / ADP 28
“There is no player within the top 30 that I’d be unwilling to draft if they somehow dropped to me at pick 60, but among them, I’m most certain I’ll have zero shares of Benintendi. I’d, of course, love to have him on my team, but at the price he requires, I can’t possibly pull the trigger. We are talking about someone who is essentially the same player as Andrew McCutchen, who is going 80 picks later. I get it, Benintendi is an incredible real-life asset, but in fantasy, 20/20 with a .290 batting average doesn’t scream third round to me.”
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypros)

“I’ll second Benintendi. The skillset in real life is fantastic, but the production does not warrant a top-30 selection. It would take a significant step forward in the power department to make it worth the cost and that seems unlikely for the Red Sox outfielder.”
– Tyler Watts (@tylerpwatts)

Jose Altuve (2B – HOU): ECR 13 / ADP 14
“Altuve is arguably the safest source of batting average in the league, which makes this one more strategy-dependent because in Roto leagues I typically target players that can produce high power over batting average guys. That’s not to call Altuve a batting average specialist, but there is concern whether his 20-homer power is ever coming back. Altuve hit 48 home runs between 2016-17, compared to 49 in his other six seasons. That two-year power surge was helped by an inflated 13.8% HR/FB ratio over that time period. That rate is nearly double his career average with no significant changes in exit velocity or launch angle. He also attempted just 21 steals, a career-low by far. While his knee injury certainly affected his ability to steal last season, don’t forget that Altuve underwent offseason knee surgery and has seen his sprint speed drop in each of the last four seasons. Pick 13 seems a little rich for a player with legitimate questions about his power and speed contributions.”
– Elliott Baas (@elliottbaasbb)

“While I will not be avoiding Jose Altuve completely, it is almost a lock that I will not have any Altuve shares because I won’t be grabbing him anywhere near his current ADP (which is currently right around the end of the first round). His down 2018 can largely be blamed on a knee injury that he played through and then had surgically repaired in October, but I also think that the days of Altuve hitting 20+ home runs and stealing 30+ bases are over. While he also possessed elite speed and the ability to hit for average, the power didn’t appear until 2016 and 2017, which I see as a combination of Altuve hitting his stride with a little bit of juiced ball help. I have him projected for more of a 15/15 season than a 20/30 one, and that isn’t production that I am willing to pay for in the first round.”
– Mike Maher (@mikemaher)

Chris Sale (SP – BOS): ECR 11 / ADP 13
“I almost always bet on talent over injury risk, but there is real concern about Sale’s health here. After the multitude of setbacks and delays to return from DL stints last year, it raises a red flag. Even being worked in gradually didn’t help. His velocity wasn’t just down once he came back, it was drastically lower. It was very noticeable through the postseason, and instead of starting him Game 5 of the World Series, Boston turned to an all hands on deck approach. I’m worried enough that I’ll let someone else invest the high pick on him.”
– Josh Dalley (@JoshDalley72)

Trevor Story (SS – COL): ECR 18 / ADP 22
“There are few players in the top 30 that I have legitimate concerns about. My colleagues touched on two of them in Benintendi and Baez. My pick, though, is Trevor Story. Story’s 2018 season seems more sustainable than his initial breakout, which was fueled by a big-time April. But if he regresses to his 2017 numbers, or if he doesn’t become the stolen-base threat he became out of nowhere in 2018, he’s going to struggle to return value. Thankfully, he has Coors Field on his side to cushion any major regression.”
– Michael Waterloo (@MichaelWaterloo)

Christian Yelich (OF – MIL): ECR 8 / ADP 8
“There’s a reason why all of these guys are sitting in the top 30, so I’d take any of them if they fell. Call me an ageist if you want, but I’m not buying many shares of Justin Verlander at 36. Javier Baez is a legitimate regression candidate, but I chose Christian Yelich because of the inflated price tag. Yelich is the reigning NL MVP because he put up 36 homers, 22 stolen bases, and a .326 batting average. There’s no denying what a special year that was, but you have to pay for what you will get this year, not last year’s production. His .373 BABIP likely suggests some regression in average, and the ridiculous 35% HR/FB rate is not going to be repeated. Even with a bit of a reduction in counting stats, Yelich is a nice player. I’m just not going to spend a first-round pick on him.”
– Shane McDonald (@coachshanemac)

Francisco Lindor (SS – CLE): ECR 7 / ADP 4
“The fact that Lindor’s ranking, currently sitting at No. 7, hasn’t dropped much following his injury news is kind of shocking. His NFBC ADP has dipped into the late second round so we’re seeing a bit of a correction on that end, but it still not enough for me. He’s an undeniably great player but the early rounds are not only about drafting good players but also ones with a safety net. Lindor’s timeline should have him back in mid-April, but what happens if there’s a setback? Will the lack of Spring Training carry over into May or June? What if the calf injury hampers his running and the steals drop? Hoping for the best case scenario for a premium pick is generally something I’m trying to avoid.”
– Ryan Melosi (@rtmelos)

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