Return on investment (ROI) is a financial term that can easily be applied to fantasy baseball. The idea is simple. What is the net profit in relation to the cost of your investment. If you invest a first-round pick on J.D. Martinez and he produces like a first-round talent, you would certainly be pleased. However, you expected Martinez to perform as such, so the ROI gain is actually not very high. Alternatively, if you make a small investment in a player with a late-round pick, but he produces early-round value, you’re looking at a high ROI with much greater investment gains.  

Let’s focus exclusively on players with an ADP at 200 or greater to identify some possible investments that may yield the greatest returns relative to their draft cost. These players could also still be available on waiver wires for leagues that have already drafted.

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Austin Meadows (OF – TB): ADP 212
Last season, Meadows hit .287 with six HRs and five SBs in 178 ABs. If he gets 500 plate appearances, we’re looking at 15/15 player with 20/20 upside. Add in a batting average that’s projected to be nearly 20 points higher than league average and Meadows looks poised to offer solid returns on such a low investment. All Meadows needs to do is settle down at the plate and focus on regaining the contact skills that produced his prospect pedigree in the first place. It’s worth noting that the Tampa Bay Rays are a smart, analytically-driven organization, so their belief in Meadows is encouraging for his potential. They acquired him to play every day, and he will be given every chance to realize that potential.

Joe Musgrove (SP – PIT): ADP 219
Musgrove has the peripheral stats that drool with upside. He was a key part of the return the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired when they shipped Gerrit Cole off the Houston Astros, and health has been the biggest obstacle for Musgrove thus far. The skills scream top-40 starter or better. He proved last year that he’s a viable back-end starter with a strong FIP (3.59) and a WHIP under 1.20. However, it’s the minuscule walk BB/9 (1.8) and potential to raise a K/9 that sits below 7.9 but could rise if he leaned more on his elite slider that teases top-shelf potential. It’s possible that Musgrove will never throw his breaking balls enough to make him an elite starter. After all, Cole had to leave Pittsburgh for Houston in order to reduce his fastball usage and pitch less to contact, and Houston already had their hands on Musgrove. Nonetheless, Musgrove’s ability to miss bats and limit walks cannot be denied, making him a worthy flier this late with the possibility for a tremendous payout.

Jorge Polanco (SS – MIN): ADP 236
Polanco was a popular breakout candidate last season before he was hit with an 80-game PED suspension. When he returned to the field, he hit a solid .288/.345/.427 with six HRs and seven SBs in just 77 games. It can be argued that Polanco’s floor this season is a .270 batting average with double-digit steals and home runs. That makes him an ideal MI option with an easy path to top-12 shortstop production. He’s also been hitting near the top of the Minnesota Twins lineup which should bolster his chances for a solid run total as well. He doesn’t hurt you in any category while contributing in all, and the value he offers at his price equates to a considerable ROI.

Max Kepler (OF – MIN): ADP 242
Another Twin here, Max Kepler has been on breakout lists for a few years now, and while the big year hasn’t happened yet, people too often miss the steady, incremental growth that has. Entering his prime at age 26, Kepler has strong contact skills (top 35 among hitters with the best strikeout rate), but a low BABIP (.236) killed his OPS last season and led to the perception that he regressed. Don’t let the third-lowest BABIP among qualified hitters last year fool you. He has been leading off for the Twins quite a bit this spring, and his contact rate and hard-hit percentage went up last season with improved exit velocity. Kepler could provide second or third outfielder stats this year at a fifth or sixth outfielder price.

Chris Paddack (SP – SD): ADP 246
Enough has been written about Paddock now that he’s arguably the most hyped starting pitcher not drafted as a top-40 arm, so I’ll keep this one brief. Paddack struck out 20 hitters in less than 13 innings this spring thanks to strong control and an elite fastball/changeup mix. Paddack has only thrown 89 innings the last two years combined after undergoing Tommy John surgery, so he’ll almost certainly be on an innings cap despite making the rotation. For less risk, Paddack’s fellow newbie in the San Diego rotation, Matt Strahm, also qualifies as a late-round bargain.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF – BOS): ADP 248
Bradley has both thrilled and disappointed Boston Red Sox fans and fantasy baseball owners alike for years, but he’s been taking hitting and swing change cues from the J.D. Martinez camp this offseason, and 2018 saw his hard-hit rate explode by more than 10%. Coupled with elite defense that will always keep him on the field and enough speed to steal double-digit bases, Bradley could emerge as a breakout star and pay massive dividends to anyone taking him at or near his ADP.

Josh Bell (1B – PIT): ADP 251
Bell is a bit of an enigma, a player who should hit for power and average due to strong plate discipline and contact skills. However, the 26 HRs he hit in 2017 looked like an outlier for a player who regressed badly last season (12 HRs and a pedestrian .768 OPS). He will bat clean up in an underrated Pittsburgh Pirates lineup, and he’s another swing change player with great exit velocity. If he maintains his gains last year (.823 OPS in the second half), then he could break into the top 12 at first base, which would be a major return on your investment at pick 251, especially if you waited on the position after the top two or three were selected.

Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL): ADP 291
Woodruff has some electric stuff, and he will open the season in the Milwaukee Brewers rotation after thriving as a relief weapon last season. He possesses a live fastball with plus movement that has generated 20 strikeouts in less than 15 innings this spring. The concern is whether he can suppress the long ball, but the fact he only gave up one home run this spring is an encouraging sign. There are many late-round starting pitcher fliers with top 40 or 50 upside, and Woodruff has the talent and offense behind him to lead the pack.

Michael Pineda (SP – MIN): ADP 347
Pineda has been a pleasant surprise for the Minnesota Twins this season, hitting 95 mph with his fastball. Projections give him a realistic shot at double-digit wins and a K/9 over 9.00. There’s a good chance his ERA doesn’t consistently end up more than a run higher than his xFIP like it did when he played in New York. That discrepancy had a lot to do with why so many kept banking on a Pineda breakout before Tommy John surgery ruined his season in 2017. In Minnesota, he will have a great defense playing behind him, and best of all, he gets to feast regularly on the subpar Tigers, Royals, and White Sox lineups. That alone almost makes a quality pitcher like Pineda a near lock for top-40 starter value, and he’s not even being drafted in some leagues. There may not be a better ROI value in all of baseball than Pineda if he can stay healthy.

Brad Keller (SP – KC): ADP 379
Keller is hitting 98 mph this spring, and he boasted an elite ground ball percentage last year (54.4%). He’s not projected for many strikeouts, which is why he often goes undrafted despite being the Opening Day starter for the Royals. However, his slider did see a 10 percent jump in SwStr% from beginning to end last season. A sinker to induce ground balls, a swing-and-miss slider, and elite velocity on his fastball could make Keller more than just a streamer. The Royals’ punchless offense might be the only reason Keller doesn’t end up with more than 12 wins. Don’t be surprised if he’s owned on more than 60% of teams before long.

Others to Consider

Franmil Reyes (OF – SD): ADP 242
A battle with Hunter Renfroe may be the only obstacle between Reyes and realizing his potential. When a player with 30+ home run power strikes out less and walks more like Reyes did in close to 200 plate appearances after his second call up, you bet on talent and let the playing time sort itself out.

Ketel Marte (2B/SS – ARI): ADP 248
A guy with 2B, SS, and eventually OF eligibility who should play center field every day for the Diamondbacks, Ketel Marte should hit over .250 with double-digit home runs and close to 10 steals. Finding an all-around contributor with that much eligibility this late in a draft to plug into your MI slot amounts to a great return on your investment.

Jake Bauers (1B/OF – TB): ADP 249
If he can carve out an everyday role in Cleveland, Jake Bauers could provide similar multi-eligibility numbers and value as Marte, except he will be able to do it by adding speed to the first base position. Imagine getting a 15/15 category punch from your first baseman this late in a draft.  

Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL): ADP 320
Peralta is officially part of the Milwaukee Brewers’ rotation, and every major projection system projects a K/9 well over 10. It’s unlikely he gets enough innings to become a 200-strikeout pitcher, but Peralta should pay off for those investing in strikeouts this deep into a draft.

Leonys Martin (OF – CLE): ADP 338
Martin will start in center for Cleveland after battling a life-threatening bacterial infection that derailed his 2018 season. Health may be the only thing standing in the way of 20/20 upside with more than 90 runs scored leading off for the Indians.

Wilmer Flores (1B/2B/3B – ARI): ADP 385
He could finally get regular at-bats in Arizona, and projections have him hitting between .270 and .280, with more than 20 home runs and 70 RBI. Add in eligibility at 1B, 2B, and 3B, and Flores might be one of the better bench bats you can roster if he isn’t actually starting for you.

Trevor Richards (SP – MIA): ADP 360 and Pablo Lopez (SP – MIA): ADP 485
The young Marlins starters are becoming quite the trendy late-round picks as spring training winds down. Pablo Lopez is consistently hitting 96 to pair with low walk rates, and many MLB scouts have named him a player poised to breakout this season. Trevor Richards might have the best changeup in baseball, and he added a curveball this spring to counteract a poor fastball. Both pitchers should return a value that far exceeds their low ADPs.

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Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyGhigs.