Ah, the dreaded last pick of the draft. No one wants it, no one picks it, and most fantasy players get a sinking pit in their stomachs when they see receive it.
Of course, some people don’t mind the last pick, especially depending on the rankings in a particular year. Moreover, certain drafters enjoy the opportunity to have back-to-back selections. The final pick does have some perks.
What about the draft slots, though, at the back-end of the round that fall before the official last pick? If you ask me, those are almost always the hardest draft positions. Like drafting from the 10th spot in a 12-team fantasy baseball league in 2019.
Why? First, drafters in those positions are forced to make a much wider decision than the first half of drafters. In 2019, Mike Trout and Mookie Betts should go one and two in every single draft. After that, Jose Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Nolan Arenado, and Max Scherzer will go next, in some order, in most leagues. But once those six picks have passed, anyone could go. It’s typically a much more impactful decision to decide between players like Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, or Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, than it is to decide between two superstars at the top of a draft.
Next, it’s typically flat out impossible to get a top superstar at the end of the first round. Sure, Turner is a great player who will get a lot of steals, but he’s not even close to Trout. The only way to get a premier stud is to snag a player who happens to break out.
Finally, the end of the first round is normally where pitchers start to go. Pitchers are great, except when you’re just settling for one because no good hitters are available. That’s what normally happens at the end of the first round. Take this upcoming season as an example. Chris Sale could be a great pick at 10th overall. But for every fantasy analyst who likes Sale, there’s one avoiding him at that cost, no matter the scenario. Pitchers simply carry more risk than hitters do, and locking up a star bat early is vastly superior to settling for certain pitchers.
If you’re stuck with a late pick in your 2019 fantasy baseball draft, look no further. I’ve analyzed many mock drafts and helped develop a plan for you to succeed.
My results are based on a 5×5 standard 12-team league with the following positional requirements: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, UTIL, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, B, B, B, B.
Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator 
Final Results
1.10 – Ronald Acuna (OF – ATL)
2.3 – Trevor Story (SS – COL)
3.10 – Trevor Bauer (SP – CLE)
4.3 – Khris Davis (OF – OAK)
5.10 – Lorenzo Cain (OF – MIL)
6.3 – Jack Flaherty (SP – STL)
7.10 – Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY)
8.3 – Justin Turner (3B – LAD)
9.10 – Michael Brantley (OF – HOU)
10.3 – Travis Shaw (1B, 2B, 3B – MIL)
11.10 – Kirby Yates (RP – SD)
12.3 – Corey Knebel (RP – MIL)
13.10 – Yu Darvish (SP – CHC)
14.3 – Miguel Cabrera (1B – DET)
15.10 – Paul DeJong (SS – STL)
16.3 – Hyun-Jin Ryu (SP – LAD)
17.10 – Ross Stripling (SP, RP – LAD)
18.3 – Alex Reyes (SP – STL)
19.10 – Domingo Santana (OF – SEA)
20.3 – Francisco Mejia (C – SD)
21.10 – Brad Peacock (RP – HOU)
22.3 – Matt Barnes (RP – BOS)
Strategy
My strategy was quite simple. With potentially not having a true superstar (Ronald Acuna’s 2019 performance will help determine that), I tried to get as well-rounded of a team as possible. For me, that is something I do not always do. If you have never read about Bobby Sylvester’s Marmol Strategy, check it out. I typically implement something similar with my teams, where I focus almost entirely on hitters early and then pitchers late. With the 10th pick in this mock, however, I needed balance.
This is about as balanced as a team can get, and the FantasyPros’ Draft Simulator analysis proved so. According to the results, my team is projected to finish between third and ninth in all 10 categories out of the 12 teams. And as always, I drafted with considerable upside, so my team has room to potentially boom.
If you’ve just received a late pick in your draft, let’s break this down. How can we ensure that you too can have a well-balanced team ready to blossom to success throughout the season?
Even Early
Two or three of the draft’s first six or seven picks should be pitchers. Don’t settle! There should be opportunities where good pitchers are hanging around early. After the first eight rounds, try to at least have three solid SP options. I didn’t do that in this draft, and I wish I had.
Steady Bullpen
While there are a few great sleepers at the closer position, to have a truly balanced team, you can’t swing and miss at closers all throughout the draft. Set a solid rule. By the end of the 11th or 12th round, make sure you have already drafted two closers. Even if that means passing up on another target, hold firm to it. By the end of the 12th, all of the top-tier closers are typically gone. Matt Barnes, Jordan Hicks, Trevor May, and others can all offer potential value towards the end of drafts. But without a solid closer or two to provide a steady source of saves and help ERA and WHIP, your relief pitchers very well might struggle.
Don’t Fret Batting Positions…
Position scarcity is a thing, but when drafting from the end, take the best available batters until it’s no longer possible. Look at my first-base situation, for example. Am I confident riding 35-year-old Miguel Cabrera into the 2019 season? Nope. Is there potentially value to be had there? Yes, and I’m willing to take the first few weeks to find out. Worst case scenario? He bottoms out, and I try to snatch a guy like Marwin Gonzalez off the waiver wire a few weeks into the season. Even though I already had two outfielders, I’m glad I grabbed Lorenzo Cain in the fifth rather than settling for Jose Abreu, who went three picks later. The combination of Cain and Cabrera should outperform the combination of Abreu and a guy like Nomar Mazara. Don’t fret positional eligibility, especially early. Take the best players when possible and fill out the rest of the roster late.
…Except Catcher
Seriously, having a top-notch catcher will be crazy valuable in 2019. Catcher is the only true exception to the rule above, no matter your draft position. Here’s the deal: If you miss on a couple of first basemen like I did, it’s no big deal. If you miss out on all the top catchers like I did, it’s a big deal. When aiming for a balanced team, we can’t have one gaping hole that will drag our stats down week after week. Catcher has the potential to be that overwhelming weakness. Lock one up by the 130th overall pick. After that point, the top-seven catchers will almost all be off the board. When the top-seven catchers are off the board, well, it looks like the prospects left at the bar at the 2 a.m. closing call: not pretty.
Have a Positive Attitude
This one actually made me laugh after I wrote it. We are talking about fantasy baseball, by the way.
Anyways, having a late draft pick isn’t so bad. Whether you follow the strategy I’ve laid out and draft a balanced team, implement the Marmol strategy, pick a random team with your eyes closed, or try something else, you still have a great chance at success. Accept the late draft slot as a challenge and embrace it. You know what they say, when you think positive, good things happen.
Check out all of our mock draft articles.
Complete a mock draft in minutes with our free Draft Simulator
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | SoundCloud | Stitcher | TuneIn
Alex Altmix is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive or follow him @Altmix_23.
