First base has a reasonable amount of depth this year, but the top options of this position hover around 20th overall in the Expert Consensus Rankings. Surging infielders have seemingly leapfrogged these sluggers, which will inevitably influence your strategy on Draft Day.
In the following write-up, I will outline the rounds and Average Draft Position (ADP) for certain players while highlighting noteworthy value within that.
Be aware that several players with first base eligibility are not included in this column. Discretion was used in deciding which players actually belonged in the first base article and who was better served as a part of another position’s rankings. As a result, Whit Merrifield, J.T. Realmuto, Travis Shaw, Buster Posey, and Jurickson Profar will not be a part of this list while rightfully belonging elsewhere.
With that, let’s go ahead and dive into the good stuff!
Tier One – Cream of the Crop
I’m good with taking any of these guys starting in the late second round (for 12 team leagues) while trickling into the late third with Anthony Rizzo holding a 34.7 ADP according to FantasyPros’ handy Consensus ADP Reference.
There are questions surrounding Paul Goldschmidt and his move to a less fantasy-friendly park in St. Louis. However, “Goldy” fought through Chase Field’s humidor last season for 33 HR and 83 RBIs with a .290 average to boot. Also, his 145 wRC+ marked a three-year high, which is certainly a good sign moving forward. You can lay Goldschmidt’s 2019 baseline on top of that with inevitable upside if he gets off to a better start (and maintains it) for his new team.
You know what you are getting with Freddie Freeman in a reliable .300 average with 25 HR and 90 RBIs. The latter department carries unquestioned upside with Atlanta’s lineup blossoming in front of him. As a result, Freeman is essentially the “1b” to Goldschmidt’s “1a” ranking at the position. The difference is a matter of personal preference or whoever falls a few spots behind the other on draft boards.
Anthony Rizzo checks in at a measurable discount (14 picks lower in ADP) from the other two sluggers of this tier, creating a value opportunity to potentially seize. Despite a terrible opening month, Rizzo was able to redeem the 2018 pre-draft hype with 25 homers, 101 RBI, and a salvaged .283 average. He missed the 30-HR threshold for the first time in five years, but the 100+ RBI streak has been extended to four straight seasons. I’m betting on Rizzo to top both of those marks in 2019.
Tier Two – Next in Line
The difference is negligible between Hoskins and Bellinger, at least from a fantasy point of view. Both of them will likely land around a .250 average with 30-35 HR and 90-100 RBIs. They lag behind the top tier in terms of expected batting average and overall bankability, but Hoskins and Bellinger unquestionably hold upside along the same level – especially in the power categories. I’m more of a believer in Hoskins of these two, as his fly-ball rate took a leap forward last season (51.7% to 45.2%) compared to the opposite for Bellinger (47.1% to 40.2%), which is an important indicator to these power-dependent sluggers.
Tier Three – Valuable Upside
This tier is all about what you are looking for. Joey Votto remains one of the most disciplined hitters in the league, but will that translate to a bounce-back in the HR department after hitting only 12 round-trippers last season? Keep in mind that he’s 35 years old as well.
Matt Carpenter started the season very slow, but belting 30 homers in a three-month span is more than enough to salvage a season. Perhaps he’ll be less streaky in 2019, but fantasy backers will take somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 HR and 80-85 RBIs no matter how it happens. Carpenter’s multi-position eligibility sets him apart from these other first basemen. You’ll probably be keeping a close eye on him in the fifth or sixth round, especially if you haven’t drafted a second baseman at that point.
Jose Abreu makes for one of the best bounce-back candidates at first base. Injuries, inconsistencies, and an unusually lower BABIP check in as the primary culprits of last year’s disappointment. Abreu enters 2019 in full health while poised to return to the .290+ average, 30+ HR, and 100+ RBI ways of previous seasons. He makes for fantastic value with an ADP of 79 at the time of publication. Go ahead and add him to your list of Draft Day targets!
What do we make of Jesus Aguilar after his breakout .274 average, 35 HR, and 108 RBIs campaign in 2018? If an all-out repeat was expected, he would probably belong in Tier Two with Bellinger and Hoskins. However, you have to love his potential while holding excellent lineup security (and RBI potential) in the middle of Milwaukee’s intimidating lineup. The names listed before him in this tier seem more established, but aggressive drafters should keep Aguilar on their radar.
The case of Daniel Murphy is very enticing from a fantasy point of view. The good news comes from the unquestioned park boost while moving to Colorado. However, let’s not forget that Murphy is 33 years old while coming off knee surgery that delayed his start to 2018. There’s definite upside in backing Murphy, but my apprehension lies with age and how the Rockies plan to utilize him (could see regular maintenance days).
Tier Four – Personal Preference
You could move the players in this tier up or down, and I probably wouldn’t disagree. That starts with Max Muncy, who is really pushing to be a part of the previous tier. His 35 HR in 481 AB last season was nothing short of an amazing feat, but it also came out of nowhere. Translation: we aren’t exactly sure how much staying power he has in the 30-HR 85-RBI range. Playing within a great Dodgers’ offense will help redeem him even if expected regression comes calling.
Matt Olson, Edwin Encarnacion, and Joey Gallo have very similar ADPs around 110 or the ninth round in standard 12-team leagues. It’s also the reason this tier is called “personal preference.” If you are cool with absorbing Gallo’s low average, then taking his realistic 40+ HR and 100+ RBI projection presents extreme value in this spot … Olson has upside while making adjustments in his second full season, and he could conceivably hold a candle to Gallo’s power without completely destroying your average … Encarnacion is now 36 years old and coming off a down season. Still, he was able to top 30 HRs and 100 RBIs in 2018. That’s probably the best-case scenario for the veteran this time around, but it still warrants mid-draft attention.
Tier Five – Oldies but Goodies
Apologies to Eric Hosmer for lumping him into the geriatric tier. In fairness, he has been playing long enough where he is perceived to be older than 29, at least from my perspective.
Each of these players has blemishes to send them this far down the first base food chain. For Miguel Cabrera, that comes in the form of health. He was looking good last season before succumbing to a ruptured bicep that ended his 2018 stint at just 38 games. Sure, he’s past his prime, but Cabrera is an elite hitter who could provide quality fantasy value with better luck and a clean bill of health. I don’t mind taking a chance on him out of this tier while crossing your fingers for something around a .280 average with 25 HR and 80+ RBIs.
I really like the fact that Carlos Santana is returning to Cleveland, giving him some solid RBI potential in an excellent lineup. Cabrera is the first veteran I’d take a chance on from this tier, but Santana makes for a satisfying consolation prize if “Miggy” is already off the board.
Tier Six – The Usurpers
This tier carries four of my favorite sleeper candidates, and they check in with an ADP ranging between 190-270 overall. Take note that all of these guys are risk/reward candidates who haven’t played an entire MLB season yet.
Voit and White are the top dogs to target here, and I find myself focusing on White with a sizably higher ADP. Of course, every draft is different and you’ll want to keep yourself open to evolving circumstances that present themselves. Both of them will look to build on upstart 2018 seasons while stepping into strong fantasy situations for a pair of capable offenses.
Ryan O’Hearn is a late-round filler who could pay dividends if last season’s small sample size wasn’t a fluke. The Kansas City slugger clubbed 12 HR through 170 PA in 2018, and he’ll see plenty of opportunities to display his raw power in the upcoming campaign. The park factor and full body of work have me skeptical, but O’Hearn still warrants consideration toward the tail-end of drafts.
Tier Seven – All that Remains
- C.J. Cron
- Yonder Alonso
- Justin Smoak
- Josh Bell
- Yulieski Gurriel
- Jose Martinez
- Ryan Zimmerman
- Trey Mancini
- Brandon Belt
- Marwin Gonzalez
What you see is what you get with this tier. I was excited at the prospects of C.J. Cron as a 30+ HR candidate now playing for Minnesota, but the Twins ended up signing Marwin Gonzalez, increasing their depth and potentially taking ABs away from Cron. He’s still a reasonable late-round snag if you need someone in this range, as genuine 30-HR potential doesn’t grow on trees this late in drafts.
I like the move of Yonder Alonso to the White Sox, where he should be looking at an encouraging park factor to go along with the reinvented launch angle that propelled him to 51 HR over the past two seasons.
Key Takeaways
- Freeman and Goldschmidt are great, but Rizzo comes with similar projections and a cheaper ADP in the top tier.
- Jose Abreu and Jesus Aguilar have legitimate top-tier upside worth targeting in round six or seven for standard drafts. Unless the higher ranked guys fall into my lap, I’ll be looking to strike with the Third Tier of this article.
- Miguel Cabrera, Tyler White, Luke Voit, Ryan O’Hearn, and C.J. Cron are late-round lottery tickets at their respective average draft positions.
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Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.
