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2019 Shortstop Primer (Fantasy Baseball)

2019 Shortstop Primer (Fantasy Baseball)

Gather round, dear readers, and let me regale you with a tale of fantasy shortstops.

Once upon a time, in the early aughts, some of the best hitters in our glorious game were shortstops. Alex Rodriguez was regularly approaching 50 homers with batting average and stolen bases to boot. Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra were duking it out every year to determine whether the Yankees or Red Sox would claim the batting title. Miguel Tejada was joining the prestigious 150-RBI club.

Then, a few years later, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, and Troy Tulowitzki emerged on the scene as high-end across-the-board producers. They weren’t quite as incredible as the ARod-Jeter-Nomar-Tejada contingent, but were still darn good.

Then, for most of the last decade, elite fantasy shortstops were few and far between. As Hanley, Reyes, Rollins, and Tulo aged and struggled with injuries, the next generation of superstar shortstops weren’t quite ready to step in. For several years, the best fantasy shortstops were guys like Ian Desmond and Elvis Andrus — not bad ballplayers but far from fantasy superstars.

Things began to change at the position when Manny Machado broke out in 2015, but it wasn’t until 2018 that the glory days of the fantasy shortstop truly returned. Last year, six of the top-13 hitters in standard 5×5 roto leagues were shortstop-eligible players, according to Baseball Monster: Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Machado, Alex Bregman, and Trea Turner. Beyond that group, Adalberto Mondesi, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Correa Seager have also displayed the potential to be difference-making fantasy contributors.

All 10 of the above names are 26 years old or younger, so it’s safe to say the future of the shortstop position is bright. When it comes to this previously scarce position, fantasy owners can once again party like it’s 1999.

The Big Six At The Six Spot: Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Manny Machado, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Alex Bregman

All of these guys are coming off terrific seasons and are capable of helping you out in just about every offensive category. They all warrant a selection in the first two or three rounds of fantasy drafts.

Lindor would arguably deserve to be in a tier of his own if he hadn’t suffered a strained calf in early February. As it is, he falls into a similar category of player as Baez and Story: shortstops coming off of 30-20 seasons who have sky-high upside but also a bit of risk. The risk for Baez and Story is performance-related — their elevated strikeout rates make some batting average regression possible, if not likely. The concern for Lindor is that he misses the beginning of the season and/or doesn’t run as much upon his return. The good news is that these guys were so good last year that they can afford to drop off a bit and still remain elite fantasy options.

With stolen bases increasingly hard to come by across MLB, Turner has justifiably seen his draft stock soar. Whether you prefer drafting him or another player in the first round is largely a question of roster construction, but his odds of rewarding the investment are high. Various reports coming out of Spring Training suggest Turner could produce even more than the 43 stolen bases he had last year, and his peripherals indicate that he should improve on last season’s .271 batting average, too. Even if neither happens, Turner’s apparent floor of 40+ stolen bases makes him a very safe pick, especially in roto/categories leagues.

Speaking of safe picks, Machado has four straight seasons with at least 33 home runs, and has finished as a top-20 hitter in standard 5×5 leagues in three of the last four years (he finished a still solid 42nd in 2017). The move to San Diego isn’t ideal for his fantasy value, but Petco Park isn’t nearly as much of a problem for hitters as it once was, particularly when it comes to right-handed power hitters like Machado. Padres manager Andy Green also sends runners much more frequently than the Orioles or Dodgers do, which could help Machado’s stolen base totals.

The projection systems expect Bregman to once again produce very similar numbers to Machado, hitting a few fewer home runs but making up for it with big run and RBI totals in a stacked Astros lineup. With great plate discipline and a great supporting cast, Bregman is another very safe, high-floor selection on draft day.

The Ultimate Risk-Reward Choice: Adalberto Mondesi

Players don’t typically get a heading all to themselves in these primers, but Mondesi isn’t your typical player. Sure, he’s been on the prospect radar for a couple years, and his father had a very solid Major League career. But few could have foreseen the impact Mondesi would make down the stretch last season, finishing as a top-five overall hitter in standard roto/categories leagues from August 1 on. His plate discipline left a lot to be desired, but his 14 HRs and 32 SBs in 75 games led a lot of fantasy managers to the championship circle. If you believe most of the projection systems, he’s due for a 20-40 kind of season in 2019, production that would again place him right alongside the very best roto options in the game. His limited track record makes him a risk-reward pick, but his skills are very real and his current sixth-round draft cost is very reasonable.

The Remaining High-End Options: Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager

This group really demonstrates the depth of the shortstop position this season — it wouldn’t be shocking if one of these three players ended up as the top shortstop in fantasy this year.

Bogaerts doesn’t have the pure upside of some of the other top shortstops, but he is a steady across-the-board performer who has finished as a top-50 overall player in standard roto leagues in three of the last four seasons. With a strong approach at the plate and a terrific team situation, he is a good bet to again finish ahead of some of the other players drafted before him.

While Bogaerts is the perfect fourth-round pick for the risk averse, Correa and Seager are the preferred options for fantasy managers looking to acquire serious upside at an injury discount. Correa was an elite prospect who took the league by storm as a rookie in 2015, but his last two seasons have been undone by injuries. In 2017, he was producing like an MVP candidate before tearing a ligament in his thumb in July. Last year, his season never got off the ground due to back issues and breathing problems. Correa has pronounced himself fully healthy this spring, making him a seemingly strong bounce-back candidate, but with his stolen base totals drying up over the last two seasons, he will need to find his way to 30+ HRs or a .300 average in order to fully live up to the hype.

Seager is similar to Correa in many respects, a top-end prospect whose career got off to a great start before being derailed by injuries. Unlike Correa, Seager never ran much to begin with, but the two shortstops appear to be at a similar stage of their power development, and Seager has perhaps shown a bit more ability to hit for a high average. Ultimately, Seager doesn’t possess quite as much upside as Correa, but their most likely outcomes are similar and Seager is going nearly 30 picks later in drafts.

Acceptable 12-Team Starters: Jean Segura, Gleyber Torres

Segura is sort of a tweener between a steady top-end fantasy shortstop like Bogaerts and a guy like Jose Peraza that you can find in the middle rounds of drafts. Segura’s production has fluctuated wildly from year to year since his breakout 2013 season. He’s hit as low as .246 and as high as .319, stolen as few as 20 bases and as many as 44, and hit as few as five home runs and as many as 20. But of late he has seemed to settle in as a .300-10-20 type of player and should theoretically benefit from an improved lineup and home ballpark now that he’s in Philadelphia. He’s a logical choice if you miss out on the top-10 shortstops.

Torres is another formerly elite prospect who is coming off an excellent rookie season in New York. He strikes out a bit too much at this stage of his career to be a reliable asset in batting average, but he won’t kill you there and should be able to match or exceed last season’s 24 home runs while also chipping in 5-10 steals and solid run and RBI totals. At just 22 years old, there’s also a chance that Torres takes a big step forward this year and jumps into the upper echelon at the position. His fifth-round ADP means you’ll be paying for that upside if you draft him.

Cheap Speed: Jose Peraza, Jonathan Villar, Garrett Hampson, Tim Anderson, Ahmed Rosario

If you don’t want to invest an early-round draft pick in a shortstop — or are in the market for a second one — there are an abundance of good speed options available at pick 100 and beyond.

Peraza was almost as good as Segura last season and there isn’t much reason to doubt he can do it again in 2019. He isn’t as likely as Segura to post a .300 batting average, but .280-.290 is entirely within reach, and their stolen base totals should be very similar. Peraza is also capable of matching Segura’s low double-digit home run output after significantly increasing both his hard contact rate and fly ball rate last season, and he should see an uptick in run production while hitting in an improved Reds’ lineup.

Villar was Adalberto Mondesi version 1.0, posting an unreal .285-19 HRs-62 SBs line in 2016 before falling back to .241-11-23 in 2017. He split the difference last year, and with regular playing time ahead of him in Baltimore, he seems likely to post another .250-15-30 season. It’s rarely pretty with Villar, but he could be a solid roto/categories league value going outside the top-100 picks in fantasy drafts.

Anderson was the only shortstop other than Lindor, Baez, and Story to post a 20-20 season last year (Turner fell one home run short). Make no mistake, with his poor plate discipline, Anderson is a roto/categories league specialist, but his counting stats can certainly play in that format. Plus, his .240 batting average is due for a bit of positive regression following an unusually low .289 BABIP.

Hampson and Rosario are late-round upside picks for speed, with Hampson my personal favorite. The Rockies’ likely starter at second base on Opening Day, Hampson has managed at least 35 SBs with a .300 batting average in each of his three minor league seasons to date. He likely won’t be good for more than around 10 HRs over a full season, but that hardly matters if he is piling up hits and stolen bases while playing half his games in Coors Field.

Rosario doesn’t have quite as much stolen base potential as Hampson, but he should be able to match the 24 he produced last season. His plate discipline is poor and he isn’t a standout in any other offensive category at the moment, so he will need to develop some more power to even become a Tim Anderson-kind of performer. That said, he was a highly-regarded prospect and is just 23 years old, so we can’t rule out a big step forward. He’s not an awful pick if you’re looking for an upside selection to stash on your bench early in the season.

The DL Stash: Didi Gregorius

Gregorius finished as a top-seven fantasy shortstop in standard 5×5 leagues last year despite missing a few weeks due to a heel injury. A more significant elbow injury followed during the playoffs, and Gregorius is now expected to miss the first half of the season following Tommy John surgery. The procedure isn’t a huge long-term concern for a position player, but whether he is worth drafting comes down to your number of bench spots and DL spots — not to mention the other shortstop(s) on your roster. He’s fully capable of producing 10-15 HRs with a decent batting average and good run production in the second half of the season.

The Best Of The Rest: Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Elvis Andrus, Jorge Polanco, Jurickson Profar, Ketel Marte, Paul DeJong, Lourdes Gurriel, Chris Taylor, Willy Adames, Scott Kingery

Even very late in drafts there are some interesting fantasy shortstops available. Semien and Simmons are the very definition of boring draft picks, but they’ve each finished as top-12 shortstops in roto/categories leagues in two of the last three seasons. Semien will provide decent power, Simmons a solid batting average, and both will chip in some steals as well.

After years of producing stolen bases but little else, Andrus rode a career high 20 HRs to finish as the number one fantasy shortstop in 2017. But he crashed back to Earth last year, managing just six homers and five steals across 97 games. The 2017 season is certainly looking like an outlier, but it won’t cost much to see if he can bounce back.

Polanco missed 80 games last year due to a PED suspension, but looked like his usual 15-15 self upon returning and could be a bit underrated. Marte, Taylor, and Adames all look like decent bets to go 15-10, but Marte is the preferred fantasy pick of the group because he makes much more consistent contact than the others.

Profar finally delivered on some of his long-forgotten prospect hype in 2018, putting up 20 homers and 10 steals with decent run production numbers. It remains to be seen if he can maintain or improve on those numbers, but he’s another reasonable bench stash considering his prospect pedigree and the fact he’ll have position eligibility all over the diamond.

DeJong is one of the better power options at shortstop, but he doesn’t project to be of any help in batting average or stolen bases, meaning he’ll need a big boost in runs and RBIs to become interesting in standard 5×5 leagues. It could be a similar case with Gurriel, but he’s less proven.

Kingery failed to deliver on the preseason hype last season, posting a thoroughly disappointing .226 batting average with eight home runs and 10 steals. But he is just one season removed from a .303-26-29 season across Double- and Triple-A, so he could be a true post-hype sleeper if he can somehow find regular playing time.

Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter

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