The third base position is unsurprisingly loaded from a fantasy baseball standpoint. All five top-tier players make for confident choices in the first round or two of snake drafts, but I’ll prioritize a few stars in that grouping more than others.
The fun doesn’t stop at the top, as we have plenty of value to parse through in the middle and later stanzas. That includes confident 30-35 HR guys who can be taken safely in the double-digit rounds. Hint: you can find them in tier four of this article.
I will reference Average Draft Position (ADP) and expected rounds based on standard 12-team fantasy baseball drafts to give you a sense of exploitable value opportunities.
With that, let’s go ahead and dive into the good stuff!
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Tier One – You Can’t Go Wrong
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Ramirez
- Javier Baez
- Alex Bregman
- Manny Machado (3B eligible on Yahoo, not ESPN/CBS)
All of these guys are projected to go in the first two rounds, as Alex Bregman and Javier Baez are tied with the highest ADP of this group at 14.7.
Nolan Arenado doesn’t need much of an introduction or explanation. He’s an elite hitter (and defender) in his prime while playing in the best ballpark for fantasy baseball purposes. He’s averaging 40 HR, 104 runs, 126 RBIs, and a .297 average per season over the past four years. Consider that his baseline, which most certainly warrants a top-10 selection (top-five overall if you ask me).
I covered Jose Ramirez in the “2B Tiers” article. In summary, I’m not criticizing anyone for taking him early in drafts. However, he probably won’t find a spot on my roster given his inflated ADP at third overall. His .218 average with 10 homers over the second half of last season (63 games) is enough for me to pump the breaks on Ramirez as a top-three (or five) overall pick.
Baez also had a featured write-up in the “2B Tiers” article, where I raved about his ability to contribute in every category. Seriously, the 26-year-old has never hit under .273 in his career (.290 last year) while looking to post his second-straight 30+ HR, 20+ SB season. He has an ADP at 14.7, but I wouldn’t be afraid to snag him in the top 10 if he’s not going to make it to the next round.
Bregman’s pre-draft ranking seems to be somewhat controversial. Some experts have him pegged as an early second-round value, and the current 14.7 ADP suggests something similar. To me, Bregman and Baez hold similar projections of 25-30 HR with a .280-ish average and 95 RBIs. Both of these guys are in their prime, but Baez has more upside in stolen bases. Tie goes to the runner, right?
I’d be lying if I said Manny Machado’s move to San Diego didn’t cause somewhat of a fantasy downgrade. It’s not extreme by any stretch of the imagination, as I still believe he is a respectable early second-round target with an ADP at 14.3. Petco Park is no longer considered a horrific hitting ballpark, but it’s hard to get really excited about Machado in this lineup.
Tier Two – Next Best
Some people are calling for value in Kris Bryant’s current ADP of 32.3. I’m a little more on the cautious side. His shoulder injury is supposedly fully healed, but we have to cater expectations for the former MVP. I’m not exactly sure what his true baseline is at the moment. Is there hope for an MVP-caliber season if the shoulder is better? Sure, but the truth probably lies closer to 25-30 HR and 85 RBIs, and there’s considerable risk if the injury follows him in some way, shape, or form. Aside from his name and immaculate 2016 campaign, is this really the type of player you want in the third round?
Anthony Rendon is not an exciting selection. In fact, he’s probably the antithesis of his “tier-mate” Bryant, who is a big name with upside but a questionable fantasy floor after disappointing two years in a row. You know what you get with Rendon, which is a near .300 average with 25 HR, 90 runs, and 90-95 RBIs. Even though it seems like he’s older, Rendon is very much in his prime at age 28. He’s a solid value in the fourth round with an ADP of 43.3.
Eugenio Suarez strikes me as a solid all-around producer (except steals) similar to Rendon. However, Suarez has less of a track record to prove the viability of 2018’s breakout with 34 HR and 104 RBIs. Playing half of his games in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park should help keep him going, and an improved Cincinnati lineup doesn’t hurt either. His bankability isn’t quite on the same level as Rendon, but don’t be surprised if Suarez flirts with 30 HR and 100 RBIs again.
Tier Three – Stability vs. Upside
I already covered Matt Carpenter in the “1B Tiers” article, talking about his realistic 30 HR and 80-85 RBIs with multi-position eligibility as a valuable commodity in the fifth or sixth round.
It’s difficult to approach top prospect Vladmir Guerrero Jr., as we aren’t sure when he’ll start playing in the majors. Hopefully, he’ll get there very soon, as he has beaten down minor league opponents enough to get his shot. There’s speculation he’ll get called up after a few weeks (maybe a month), as that’s what meshes best with his service time. He could make an impact right away with elite power and a strong average to boot.
Tier Four – Value Pack
I really like this tier for value with their current ADP levels, which spans from around 100 to 140, or rounds eight-11 for standard 12-team drafts.
I don’t expect Max Muncy to maintain his 35 HR in 481 AB pace from last season, but a step back wouldn’t be the end of the world from a raw projection standpoint. He should still flirt with 30 HR in a full year of work, and hitting within a great Dodgers lineup should help in the runs and RBI department.
Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas have similar projections while settling into the same confident lineup and hitter-friendly home ballpark. Both of them should approach 30 HR and 85-90 RBIs again this season. I believe Moustakas has a little more upside beyond that, and his ADP settles in at 140. That’s interesting when considering Shaw has an ADP of 96. Go ahead and pencil Moustakas in as a nice value fallback.
Tier Five – Movers & Shakers
Matt Chapman had a somewhat strange 2018 campaign. He ended up with a respectable .278 average and 100 runs while holding a lower home run total with only 24 round-trippers. His 2019 expectation probably lies somewhere between that and his minor league power tendencies. He’s a solid 25-30 HR threat who is good for 80+ runs and 80-85 RBIs, even if that comes with a lower average around .250 or so. There’s upside with Chapman potentially figuring things out as a 25-year-old in his second full major league season.
Miguel Andujar and Josh Donaldson are listed a tier or two below their ADPs of 76 and 98, respectively. I really don’t mind Andujar on the surface, but I think he’s going too early in the sixth or seventh round of standard drafts. While playing in Yankee Stadium helps, it’s tough to see him replicating last year’s 25 HR and .279 average. His ISO is due for regression after surging to .230 despite never exceeding .185 in the minors.
As for Donaldson, he’s certainly risky while battling through numerous injuries at this stage of his career. A realistically good scenario would look something like 25-30 HR with 80-85 RBI and a .260 to .265 average if he stays healthy. I believe you can get that from aforementioned guys like Muncy, Moustakas, or Shaw (similar ADP) without absorbing as much risk.
Looking to draft Justin Turner (or not) comes down to personal preference. He’s a guy who hits for average at a position that usually emphasizes power. There’s nothing wrong with that if it’s your cup of tea. I’m leaning more towards the power department with the surrounding third basemen of this article, but those targeting Turner can take comfort in his resurgent second half (clearly healed from a wrist injury) that led to a .356 average with 41 runs and 33 RBIs through 55 games.
I wouldn’t call Carlos Santana a sleeper, but he seems like a value candidate with an ADP of 166. Returning to Cleveland could help him find some RBI potential in an excellent lineup. His ADP is the highest of this tier, as Wil Myers is next at 109. Go ahead and take note of that.
Tier Six – Lottery Tickets
Who wants a lottery ticket? Some of these guys are bounce-back candidates while others are trying to make the leap from the waivers watch list to fantasy starter.
Rafael Devers makes a strong case as a later-round pick on draft day. There’s a wide range of outcomes for this guy, but he’s still young (22) with room for growth in an excellent lineup and hitting atmosphere.
Jake Lamb is a true gamble, as we aren’t sure how shoulder surgery will impact his numbers. If he’s healthy, he could be a steal towards the end of standard drafts. That’s something to note for aggressive fantasy enthusiasts looking for upside. Others may want to add him to their watch list to see how he looks early in the season.
Eduardo Escobar could be a fine utility player for your fantasy squad. I’m not expecting much upside above 20 HR and 75 RBIs, but his viability over the past two seasons is here to stay. He’ll likely hold a premium lineup spot in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.
Key Takeaways
- I’ll be looking to snag any of the top-tier players, but I’m willing to reach for Arenado and Baez above their respective ADPs of seven and 15 overall.
- Early drafts suggest that I’m lower on Guerrero than most people. While I’m certainly not against the 19-year-old phenom, I’ll gladly take established players like Suarez, Rendon, or Carpenter over him.
- Moustakas checks in as one of my favorite value picks at third base. Muncy, Shaw, and Chapman fall into that category as well.
- Devers is a boom-or-bust lottery ticket towards the tail end of drafts, while Santana is an underrated backup lift with a similar ADP.
2019 First Base Rankings Tiers
2019 Second Base Rankings Tiers
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Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.
