50 Fantasy Baseball Stats to Consider on Draft Day

by Bobby Sylvester | @bobbyfantasypro | Featured Writer
Mar 12, 2019

Looking for this year’s Mike Clevinger? Ross Stripling might be the answer

Baseball is more stat-oriented than any other sport so as you can imagine in fantasy baseball, statistics give a strong indication of what may happen in the future. It isn’t as much about coaching schemes, age curves or target opportunity like we see in fantasy football. Rather, the numbers translate easily and projections are much more understandable. Today, I’m going to give you 50 stats that captured my attention enough to help form my 2019 rankings.

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J.T. Realmuto was the only catcher to bat over .241 with at least 56 runs scored. He batted .277 with 74 runs, 74 RBI and 21 HR in the worst park for right-handed hitters.

Trea Turner’s 162 game average is 20 HR, 56 SBs, 106 runs and a .289 BA. Only Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan have ever produced all four of those marks in a season.

Ronald Acuna’s 162 game pace last year: 38 HR, 23 SB, 114 runs, 93 RBI and a .293 average. That would have made him a consensus top-five fantasy asset in 2018.

Juan Soto’s 162 game pace (as a teenager!): 31 HR, 7 SB, 108 runs, 98 RBI, .292 average
Top-ten pick, Alex Bregman’s season: 31 HR, 10 SB, 105 runs, 103 RBIs, .286 average

Rafael Devers, who has already compiled 31 homers in 179 MLB games, is younger than Eloy Jimenez, the #2 prospect in baseball who has yet to play an MLB game.

Shohei Ohtani had a better wOBA than Ronald AcunaManny MachadoFreddie FreemanFrancisco Lindor and Matt Carpenter just to name a few.

Blake Snell may have just posted the most dominant second-half in the past 50 seasons:

Ross Stripling‘s xFIP was fourth best among pitchers with at least 120 innings last year behind only Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Patrick Corbin.

The last time Miguel Cabrera was healthy and didn’t get an MVP vote was in 2002 when he was a teenager playing in the minor leagues.

Over the last three years, Matt Kemp averages 30 homers, 100 RBIs and a .277 batting average per 162 games.

Over the last three years, Ryan Braun averages 30 homers, 18 steals and a .279 batting average per 162 games.

Bryce Harper has missed 182 games over the past 6 seasons.

J.D. Martinez has played in over 125 games just twice in his career.

Max Scherzer has 1,620 K’s and 107 wins over the last 6 years. #2 in that time period has only 1,486 and 96.

Clayton Kershaw’s strikeout rate plummeted from 10.4 to 8.6 per nine innings last year. That was good for just 60th out of 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings.

Trevor May had a 38% K-rate and 0.86 WHIP in the second half last year (when he came back from his injury). Both of those numbers bested Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen.

Andrew Benintendi last two seasons – 36 HR, 41 SB, 187 R, 177 RBI, .280 BA (ADP #30)
Tommy Pham (in 34 fewer games) – 44 HR, 40 SB, 197 R, 136 RBI, .290 BA (ADP #70)

Gerrit Cole’s ERA splits (2.52 to 3.50 in the first and second half)
Gerrit Cole’s skill-indicating ERA splits (3.10 to 2.91 in the first and second half)

Justin Verlander 2018: K% (34.8), BB% (4.4), Fastball Velo (95.4)
Previous career-highs: K% (28.1), BB% (5.9), Fastball Velo (96.3)

Trevor Bauer was on pace for 225 IP, and 285 Ks with a 2.21 ERA before his leg injury. Roger Clemens’ best season ever had 292 Ks with a 2.05 ERA.

Charlie Blackmon is 1st in runs scored, 3rd in batting average and 11th in homers over the last three years.

Steamer’s (always conservative) Vlad Guerrero Jr. projections prorated to 162 games: 30 HR, 8 SB, 100 runs, 102 RBI, .306 average
Top-five pick, Nolan Arenado‘s 2018 season: 38 HR, 2 SB, 104 runs, 110 RBI, .297 average

Giancarlo Stanton has only hit 40 homers once in his career. Khris Davis has accomplished it each of the past three seasons.

The only players in MLB history with as many homers as Cody Bellinger in their first two seasons before they turned 23 are Joe Dimaggio, Eddie Matthews, Albert Pujols and Frank Robinson.

Adalberto Mondesi was the #1 fantasy baseball asset starting July 1st with a 162-pace of 33 HR, 74 SB, 102 R, 84 RBI and a .288 BA

Jesus Aguilar’s second-half 162-pace: .243 BA, 29 HR, (ADP #79)
C.J. Cron in just 140 games: .253 BA, 30 HR, (ADP #251)

Jose Ramirez second-half: .218/.366/.427 with 10 HR, 35 RBI

Rhys Hoskins’ 162-game career average: 41 HR, .249 BA (ADP #39)
Miguel Sano’s 162-game career average: 36 HR, .244 BA (ADP #229)
*Sano is younger than Hoskins and was an elite prospect

Daniel Murphy’s last three seasons: .326 BA, 60 HR, 239 RBI (now playing in Coors)
Jose Altuve’s last three seasons: .334 BA, 61 HR, 238 RBI (recovering from knee surgery)

Robinson Cano’s full-season pace after last year’s suspension: 21 HR, 102 RBI, 90 R, .303 BA (ADP #108)
Anthony Rendon last season: 24 HR, 92 RBI, 88 R, .308 BA (ADP #43)

Scooter Gennett’s last 1000 PAs: 43 HR, 157 RBI, 146 R, .307 BA
Freddie Freeman’s last 1000 PAs: 34 HR, 134 RBI, 136 R, .298 BA

Jonathan Villar’s top-five fantasy season in 2016:  19 HR, 62 SB, 92 R
Jonathan Villar’s 162-game pace after trade to BAL last year: 24 HR, 64 SB, 84 R

Josh Donaldson‘s last 162 games: 41 HRs, 101 RBIs, .262 BA

Maikel Franco‘s pace from June 17th on: 32 HRs, 82 RBI, .294 BA, .855 OPS

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. pre-injury pace: 27 HR, .281 BA, 87 RBIs (ADP 240)
Ozzie Albies: 24 HR, .261 BA, 72 RBIs (ADP 52)

Paul DeJong has more homers per game than both Carlos Correa and Javier Baez since he joined the league

Statcast has Javier Baez‘ xBA a full 26 points lower than his actual .290 BA. Likewise, his xSLG was .491 instead of .554. He was the single luckiest hitter last season.

Shane Bieber had a better K-rate and BB-rate than Clayton Kershaw last year. The difference was that Bieber had a league-high .356 BABIP while Kershaw’s was down at .273

Domingo Santana and Steven Souza Jr. are one of 10 players to hit 30 homers and steal 15 bags in either of the last two seasons. The others: Francisco Lindor, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Jose Ramirez

Jorge Soler from April 8th to Jun 13th (before his injury): 56 games, 27 extra-base hits, .282 batting average, .866 OPS

Marcell Ozuna 2017 with Marlins: .312/.376/.548, 37 HR, 124 RBI (played with a shoulder injury in 2018)
Christian Yelich 2017 with Marlins: .282/.369/.439, 18 HR, 81 RBI

Robbie Ray was one of 10 SPs with a K-rate above 30% last year. The others: Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, James Paxton, Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, Trevor Bauer, Patrick Corbin

Rich Hill since 2015: 2.98 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.6 K/9
Luis Severino last year: 3.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 10.4 K/9

Tyler Glasnow had a higher K-rate in 2018 than Stephen Strasburg, Luis Severino and German Marquez.

Matt Strahm‘s career: 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 118 IP
Noah Syndergaard last year: 3.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 154 IP

Chris Paddack‘s minor league career: 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 34.1% K-rate, 6.2 H/9
Walker Buehler‘s minor league stats: 3.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 34.3% K-rate, 6.5 H/9

The only pitchers to finish top 10 in K/9 and top 5 in BAA were Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Freddy Peralta.

Josh Hader‘s full 2018 season: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 6 wins, 12 saves, 143 Ks
Chris Sale‘s 2018 cut in half: 2.11 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 6 wins, 0 saves, 119 Ks

Madison Bumgarner finished 74th out of 106 SPs with at least 120 innings in xFIP last year. He was behind Jose Urena, Ivan Nova and Derek Holland.

Jameson Taillon’s 1st Half: 3.91 ERA, 3.60 xFIP
Jameson Taillon’s 2nd Half: 2.33 ERA, 3.56 xFIP

Roberto Osuna: 3.72 xFIP, 21.3 K% (currently HOU closer)
Ryan Pressly: 2.58 xFIP, 34.6 K% (closer the moment Osuna slips up)

Bobby Sylvester is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Bobby, check out his archive and follow him @BobbyFantasyPro.

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