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Deep NL-Only Targets (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Deep NL-Only Targets (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

After already diving deep for hidden AL-only values, let’s shift to the Senior Circuit for some cheap NL-only targets.

Applying the same guidelines, I only considered players with an ADP higher than 400 in NFBC drafts (mixed leagues) since the start of February. The aim is to highlight guys who won’t get drafted in the typical mixed league. Matt Strahm and Chris Paddack are excellent late fliers with an all-inclusive player pool, but neither Padres pitcher will last long in a deeper format. These guys better meet this article’s intent, but Jeff Samardzija, Trevor Richards, and Merrill Kelly narrowly missed the cutoff point. Give them a look if they slip.

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Drew Pomeranz (SP/RP – SF)
Untenably bad last year, Pomeranz posted a 6.08 ERA, 66 strikeouts, and 44 walks in 74 disastrous innings. His velocity plummeted to 89.8 mph, leading to a dreadful 7.4% swinging-strike rate.

That’s admittedly an awful elevator pitch for drafting him in 2019. Yet like the Giants, fantasy gamers can take a low-risk, high-reward flier on a 30-year-old pitcher who deposited a 3.32 ERA with over a strikeout per inning in both 2016 and 2017. Left biceps tendinitis compounded his 2018 troubles, but Pomeranz has at least fanned nine batters in as many spring frames. Moving to MLB’s best pitcher’s park solidifies him as a worthy dart throw.

Raimel Tapia (OF – COL)
Since signing with the Rockies two years ago, Ian Desmond has posted a lower fWAR (-1.5) than any MLB position player. After moving him from shortstop to first base, Colorado now plans to start him at center field, where he played just two games last season. Nothing can possibli go wrong.

If only they had a capable replacement waiting for an extended opportunity to show he belongs. Perhaps someone with a perfect blend of contact hitting and speed to make the most of Coors Field.

When the Rockies gave Tapia a prolonged tryout in 2017, he held his own by batting .288/.329/.425 in 70 games. He nevertheless spent most of 2018 toying with overmatched Triple-A opposition (.302/.352/.495, 11 HRs, 21 SBs). Out of options, the 25-year-old is likely to at least make the major league roster. While Tapia will probably begin as a fourth outfielder, he could slide into a starting spot if Desmond remains a sub-replacement player or the oft-injured David Dahl goes down again. There’s enough five-category potential to make a late speculative purchase.

Neil Walker (1B/2B/3B – MIA)
Curtis Granderson (OF – MIA)
Even the league’s worst squad will churn out some useful NL-only contributors. As they vie for next year’s No. 1 amateur draft pick, the Marlins will bide their time with two veteran placeholders. Although hardly exciting options, particularly in a decrepit lineup, they’re both projected starters who can provide cheap pop.

Walker wielded a wRC+ above 105 in each of his previous eight MLB campaigns before cratering to 81 last season. Going from the Yankees to Marlins seemingly places another nail in his fantasy coffin, but the 33-year-old will no longer need to develop a rhythm in sporadic playing time. He’s a career .268/.339/.430 hitter who has averaged 14.9 homers per 500 plate appearances.

While his 40-homer days are long behind him, Granderson maintained a .351 OBP in 2018 due to a superb 13.4% walk rate. Despite his contact woes, the Marlins may utilize his elite batting eye in the leadoff role. Don’t bank on significant power, but last season marked the first time since 2006 he failed to deliver at least 20 dingers aside from 2013’s 61-game campaign.

Kyle Wright (SP – ATL)
The Braves were swimming with young hurlers before pitchers and catchers reported. Over the past few weeks, however, they’ve gone down one by one like a bad horror movie. Mike Foltynewicz (elbow) won’t be ready for Opening Day. Mike Soroka (shoulder) is no longer in contention for a rotation spot. Kevin Gausman struggled in his second spring start (0.2 IP, 3 R) after getting backtracked by a shoulder issue. They already optioned Luiz Gohara –also dealing with an injured shoulder — to Triple-A.

That could suddenly free at least one rotation spot, and Wright is doing everything in his power to claim it. The No. 5 pick in 2017’s draft has registered 16 strikeouts and two walks over four spring outings spanning 12 innings. He has operated in the mid-90s with sharp command and “crispy” stuff, as described by bench coach Walt Weiss to Gabriel Burns of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The polished 23-year-old righty can make an immediate mark if given the chance.

Dominic Smith (1B – NYM)
Remember when the Mets had a surplus of infielders? Because they’re the Mets, that depth didn’t even make it to Opening Day. Todd Frazier (oblique) and Jed Lowrie (knee) are both expected to miss the start of the season. That turns Jeff McNeil into a mixed-league target as their likely starting third baseman. First base, however, remains up for grabs between a hotshot rookie and a former prized prospect.

Believe it or not, Smith is actually more than a year younger than Pete Alonso. Having already clubbed four doubles and home runs apiece this spring, the latter is doing his best to force the Mets to forgo service-time manipulation and put him on the big league squad. They could also, however, use Smith’s success as a convenient (and arguably justified) excuse.

Deemed the future first baseman as recently as last season, the 23-year-old Smtih has batted a putrid .210/.259/.406 in 332 major league plate appearances. He also entered camp with one of baseball’s most compelling Best Shape of My Life tales. Smith began wearing a mask to treat his sleep apnea, and he has raved about an energy boost that has helped produce 15 hits in 48 March plate appearances. Don’t be surprised if the Mets use this development to send Alonso to the minors to work on his defense. (To be fair, that’s actually a reasonable rationale in this case.)

Pablo Lopez (SP – MIA)
One more Marlin for the road. Lopez made a compelling case for a rotation spot by twirling four perfect innings against the Nationals last week. A four-seamer that averaged out at 92.7 mph last year frequently reached 95 and peaked at 97.

Opponents staked Lopez’s fastball to a .369 wOBA last year, so a sustained velocity hike could make a major difference alongside two promising offspeed pitches. His changeup relinquished just one extra-base hit (a double), and his curveball netted a 16.1% swinging-strike rate. Lopez, who held his own with a 4.14 ERA and 50.0% ground-ball rate in 10 big league starts, owns a career 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in the minors. A few more punchouts could be his meal ticket to fantasy relevancy, but he wouldn’t require a major leap to matter in NL-only formats if given a rotation spot.

Also check out our deep AL-only targets.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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