This week on DraftKings there are only seven golfers priced at $9,400 or higher (at least $1,000 more than the average roster spot). Rory McIlroy is far and away the top priced player with an $11,400 salary, which is $700 more than the world’s number two golfer, Justin Rose. Rickie Fowler ($10,400) and Brooks Koepka are the only other players in the five-figure club. DraftKings gives you $50,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $8,400. There are some intriguing players in the $6k range which could lead you to a stars and scrubs build. However, with fewer golfers in this field, there will be more lineups with 6/6 making it through to the weekend so you’ll want to limit your risk.
All of the plays that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most variance from week to week. Anyone can miss a cut, and anyone can finish in the top five (or even win). Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
The Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) is played at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. It is a Par 72 course that measures 7,419 yards.
Bay Hill consists of four Par 3s (averaging 216 yards!), 10 Par 4s, and four Par 5s (averaging 550 yards).
This event is by invitation only, so there is a stronger field than at many other non-majors. 120 golfers will tee it up with the top 70 (and ties) moving on to the weekend. The MDF (secondary cut) will be in effect if more than 78 golfers make it to Saturday.
More than half of the top 50 golfers in the world are teeing it up this week.
Tiger Woods, an eight-time winner at the API, has withdrawn because of a sore neck.
The average winning score has been 14-under par and the cut line has averaged two-over par. Rory McIlroy was 18-under par last year defeating Bryson DeChambeau by three strokes.
Past champions of the Honda Classic scheduled to play this week include Rory McIlroy (2018), Mark Leishman (2017), Jason Day (2016), Matt Every (2015, 2014), Martin Laird (2011), Ernie Els (2010, 1998), Vijay Singh (2007), Tim Herron (1999), Phil Mickelson (1997), and Robert Gamez (1990).
RECENT FORM
Rory McIlroy ($11,400)
Since the calendar flipped to 2019, all he has done is dominate leader boards with four straight top-five finishes this calendar year. In the last 24 rounds played, only Justin Rose is gaining more strokes and scoring more fantasy points than McIlroy. Additionally, he has made the cut in 16 straights events.
Jason Day ($9,900)
We sometimes forget about Day, who was ranked third in the world last year at this time. He has made the cut in 13 of his last 14 events. During that time, he has three top-five finishes, eight top-15 finishes, and all 13 made cuts have resulted in at least a top-25 finish. The last two events that he has played (Farmers Insurance and Pebble Beach) have resulted in top-five finishes. Only McIlroy and Rose have scored more fantasy points in the last 24 rounds played.
Keegan Bradley ($8,400)
He hasn’t missed a cut since last June at the U.S. Open (only Gary Woodland has made more consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour than Keegan). He finished 10th in his last tournament, which was the stacked WGC-Mexico Championship.
Ian Poulter ($8,000)
Four straight top-six finishes. He is dialed in right now. Overall, he has made 11 straight cuts. The last time we saw Poulter, he finished third in a stacked WGC-Mexico field. He is top five in scoring average and top 10 in Shots Gained: Approach on the European Tour. He is not a “stud,” “value,” or “punt,” but he is one of my favorite plays this week. I will be overweight on him.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Rory McIlroy ($11,400)
The defending champion also finished fourth in 2017. He has only played this event four times but has made the cut each time with his worst finish being 27th in 2016.
Francesco Molinari ($9,000)
He has made the cut in all six tries and has three top-10 finishes in the last five years. He finished 26th last year. His best finish is fifth in 2014.
Henrik Stenson ($8,100)
His fourth-place finish last year marked the fourth time in the last five years that he had a top-five finish. Unfortunately, the one year that he failed to place in the top five was in 2017 when he missed the cut. Overall, he has made the cut in nine of his 10 appearances with five top-10 finishes.
Zach Johnson ($7,700)
Overall, he has made the cut in 14 of the 15 times that he has teed it up at the API. He has five top-10 finishes, with his best being a third-place finish in 2009. He last finished in the top five in 2016.
COURSE FIT (KEY STATS)
Shots Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Oftentimes, the difference between success and failure from week to week is the flat stick. Bad putters can get hot and good putters can fail to make big putts. It is hard to predict which bad putters will get hot, but we can look at who the good putters are and have confidence that they will give themselves a chance on the greens. A strong game on the greens can make up for a sub-par day elsewhere. In looking at the last 24 rounds on Bermuda, the following five golfers have gained the most strokes on field, Charles Howell III ($8,600), Cameron Champ ($7,600), Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,100), Brian Gay ($7,000), and Scott Langley ($6,600).
Shots Gained: Approach
This is a good statistic to look at week in and week out. This week is no exception as many of the approach shots will come from at least 200 yards out (by the way, all the Par 3s measure at least 199 yards). Traditionally, if a golfer has a good week with their approach shots, then they have tended to finish well. When looking at the last 24 rounds, the top-five golfers in this area include Rory McIlroy ($11,400), Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300), Keegan Bradley ($8,400), Jason Kokrak ($8,300), and Talor Gooch ($6,800).
Shots Gained: Par 5 Scoring
Par 5 scoring has accounted for around 40% of the fantasy scoring at the API. The fairways are average and the distance for the Par 5s are not daunting. Of the four Par 5s on the course, none of them measure more than 575 yards. In the last 24 rounds, the top-five players on the PGA Tour in Par 5 scoring are Brooks Koepka ($10,200), Adam Hadwin ($7,700), Michael Thompson ($7,600), Talor Gooch ($6,800), and Adam Schenk ($6,700).
FAVORITE STUD
Justin Rose ($10,700)
This is by no means a sure thing since he hasn’t played for a month. In fact, he missed the cut in his last event (the Saudi Invitational). However, the last time most of us saw Rose, he was hoisting the trophy at the Farmers Insurance Open. He was just overtaken by DJ for the top spot in the Official World Golf Rankings. I think he’ll be motivated to regain that spot. In his last 10 events, he has seven top-five finishes. I have the most trust in him of all the big names. Certainly, the players at the top (the big names) are where they are because they’ve shown an ability to compete week in and week out. Rose also has performed well at this event in the past with three top-five finishes in his last seven starts. Overall, he has made 11 of 13 cuts and only once in the last seven years has he finished outside the top-15. In the last 24 rounds, he is the leader in this field for total shots gained and fantasy scoring. I am not opposed to Koepka or McIlroy this week. Koepka did Koepka things at Honda and McIlroy has all top-five finishes since the start of 2019. This is a strong field, and I don’t plan on fading the top. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the high-priced guys ended up winning this week. I think Rose will be less owned than Koepka or McIlroy, which is the tie-breaker for me, but I will have some of all these guys in multiple lineups.
FAVORITE VALUE
Michael Thompson ($7,600)
He was a chalky play last week at the highest he has ever been priced. That was because he had been playing so well. He didn’t do anything at the Honda to cause us to worry about his form. His 16th-place finish gives us confidence that his form is still solid. He now has five straight finishes inside the top 20, including two inside the top 10. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in fantasy scoring and sixth in total Shots Gained on the rest of the field. He has only played the API once before and that was in 2012 when he finished 36th. There is not really a site discount for Thompson as he is similarly priced on all the major sites. But you are getting a big discount from where he was last week. Ironically, you should also get an ownership discount this week (even though he is cheaper). You do get a site discount on Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7,500), who is typically good for a top-20 finish. Keith Mitchell ($7,500) is still priced pretty low even coming off a win last week. Ian Poulter ($8,000) is one of my favorite plays regardless of site and price. He could easily win this week (see “Recent Form” above). His best finish at the API was third back in 2012, but he has made eight straight cuts. He won’t necessarily pop in stat models since he plays a lot on the Euro Tour.
FAVORITE PUNT
Talor Gooch ($6,800)
In the last 24 rounds played, Gooch ranks third in Shots Gained: Approach, fourth in Par 5 scoring, fourth in fantasy scoring, seventh in Total Shots Gained, and is in the top 15 for Three-Putt Avoidance on Bermuda greens and top 20 for Shots Gained: Ball Striking. Not bad for a guy that is under $7k. He was a big thing a few weeks ago when he went back-to-back top-five finishes. Unfortunately, he followed that with two straight missed cuts. He showed a little bit of form again this past week in finishing 20th at the Honda Classic. In his debut at the API last year, he finished in 26th-place.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Charley Hoffman ($7,000)
He has finished 14th and runner-up in the last two years at the API. This is a classic form versus course history situation. Yes, he has fared well here, but Hoffman has been playing poorly for quite a while at other events. The last time that he was inside the top 20 was last July at The Open Championship. He has missed the cut in four of his last six events. What makes this a more difficult play is that he is priced so low. He is a tempting play at this price. There are a number of good options in the lower range, and I would encourage you to look elsewhere.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
