There are nine golfers on DraftKings priced at $9,400 or higher this week at the Valspar Championship. Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm are the only two golfers priced in the $11k range at $11,500 and $11,000, respectively. Jason Day ($10,700), Webb Simpson ($10,400), and Sergio Garcia ($10,100) round out the five-figure club. DraftKings gives you $50,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $8,400.
There was a lot of carnage last week at The PLAYERS Championship as many of the higher-owned (chalky) plays missed the cut. However, I would caution against putting too much stock in a bad performance last week. It is easy to let TPC Sawgrass get inside your head and you end up blowing up on a hole or two leading to an early exit or poor finish. You will also see some players much higher priced than normal. This can tend to cause us sticker shock and we avoid them. Remember, though, that pricing is always relative to that particular tournament and that particular field. A player might have been a value or cheap play last week in a huge field but in a less talented field this week, they are one of the more expensive options. Don’t let those prices scare you.
All of the plays that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most variance from week to week. Anyone can miss a cut, and anyone can have a high finish (or even win). Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
The Valspar Championship is played on the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. The Par 71 course measures 7,340 yards.
The fairways are about tour average but the rough is fairly penal. It is expected to be about three inches thick this week. The Bermuda greens are average size.
Holes 16, 17, and 18 are known as the “Snake Pit.” Historically speaking, a quarter of the scores on this stretch will result in a bogey, at least.
144 golfers are scheduled to tee it up for The Valspar Championship. The top 70 golfers (and ties) make the cut and move on to the weekend. The MDF (secondary cut) is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the first cut.
Past champions scheduled to play this week include Paul Casey (2018), Adam Hadwin (2017), Charl Schwartzel (2016), John Senden (2014), Kevin Streelman (2013), Luke Donald (2012), Gary Woodland (2011), Jim Furyk (2010), Sean O’Hair (2008), and K.J. Choi (2006 & 2002).
Jim Furyk has the longest current Valspar cut streak at nine events. Patrick Reed and Bill Haas are the only other players to have made the cut in each of their last four Valspar events. Reed has played each of the last four years. Furyk didn’t play in 2016 and Haas skipped the 2015 event.
The average winning score is nine-under par and the average cut line is three-over par. Last year, Paul Casey won with a score of 10-under par. The cut has been at least one-over par each year since 2013.
RECENT FORM
Dustin Johnson ($11,500)
Since the start of the new calendar year, he has had only one minor hiccup on his resume (45th at Pebble Beach) as he has recorded top-10 finishes in four of his five events. He finished fifth this last week at The PLAYERS and won the WGC-Mexico Championship prior to that. Overall, he has made the cut in 14 straight events and has nine top-10 finishes during that stretch. Nobody has gained more strokes in the last 24 rounds than DJ has.
Jason Day ($10,700)
If you ignore his WD at the API (that will be difficult for 30% of us), he has four top-10 finishes in his last seven events. His worst finish in his last eight events was his 18th-place finish back in September at the TOUR Championship. In his last three events, he has finishes of 8-4-5. Of the golfers in this field, only Jon Rahm has scored more fantasy points in the last 24 rounds.
Gary Woodland ($9,900)
He has cooled off lately as his best finish in the last three tournaments has been a T17 at the WGC-Mexico. However, he still has the longest current streak on the PGA Tour for consecutive cuts numbering 22 events. Prior to this recent string of “average” finishes, he did put together a run of seven top-10 finishes in a span of nine events. In this field, only Jon Rahm and Jason Day have scored more fantasy points in the last 24 rounds played than has Woodland.
Keegan Bradley ($9,400)
Depending on your point of view, you might just be cursing me right about now for including him, especially if you rostered him two weeks ago when he went “Full Keegan” and carded a 75-78 on the weekend after being the 36-hole leader. You also might not like that he was the first-round leader last week at The PLAYERS but ended up finishing T16. By the way, back in 2016 at this very event when we first saw “Full Keegan” rear its ugly head with an MC after being the first-round leader. However, the reality is that he is playing well, and he is showing an ability to go low in rounds. Overall, he has made 19 straight made cuts, which is second on the PGA Tour behind only Gary Woodland’s 22. In this last three events, he has been first-round leader at The PLAYERS, second-round leader at the Arnold Palmer, and finished 10th at the WGC-Mexico after shooting a final-round 65. If he could ever get his putter working, he might be a star. Overall, he has made the cut in 28 of his last 29 events.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Patrick Reed ($9,500)
Leads the field in total strokes gained over the past four years. This is not surprising as he has accumulated three top-10 finishes during that span. Last year’s runner-up finish was his second such finish in four years. His ability to avoid big numbers, scramble, and make things happen around the green seems to suit this course.
Jim Furyk ($9,200)
He has the longest current cut streak at the Valspar Championship having made nine cuts in a row. He finished seventh last year after going a few years without a top-10 finish. Overall, he has four top-10 finishes at this event, including a win in 2010. He ranks eighth in total strokes gained during the last five years at the Valspar.
Ryan Moore ($8,700)
He has two top-five finishes in the last four years (2016 and 2015) to go along with a T18 in 2017. He seems to have the game (ball-striking, approach shots, and scrambling) that fits this course. Even though he did miss the cut last year, he is still tied for second (with Henrik Stenson) for total shots gained on the field at the Valspar over the last four years.
Bill Haas ($6,700)
Along with Reed and Furyk, he is the only other player that has made his last four cuts at this event. What makes that even more interesting is that last year’s 49th-place finish was his first event back after being involved in a car accident that left Haas with serious injuries, while claiming the life of his friend, Mark Gibello. It seems that Haas likes this course. Overall, he has made the cut seven times in his 10 starts. He has three top-16 finishes, including a runner-up performance in 2016. He is cheap across the industry and may make for an interesting play this week.
COURSE FIT (KEY STATS)
Shots Gained: Approach
One of the most correlated stats to success at the Valspar is SG: Approach. We looked at this statistic on Par 71 courses that measure 7,300 yards and then we took a look at the player’s shorter-term form (last 24 rounds) and long-term form (100 rounds). There are four players ranked in the top 10 for both time periods. Dustin Johnson ($11,500), Keegan Bradley ($9,400), Henrik Stenson ($9,100), and Stewart Cink ($7,000) are all players that seem reliable from an approach-game standpoint.
Par 3 Scoring
It is not normal to have five Par 3 holes but that is what the Copperhead Course gives us. These are also not normal Par 3s as the average length is 212 yards. There are only three players that are ranked in the top 10 in long Par 3 scoring for both the last 24 rounds and the last 100 rounds. Jon Rahm ($11,000), Jason Day ($10,700), and Jason Kokrak ($8,600) could be in line to put together some nice scoring and gain some separation on the five Par 3s.
Bogey Avoidance
Anytime we have a course that typically sees single-digit, below-par scoring, bogey avoidance is something that should be considered. Scoring is always nice but if a player can avoid losing strokes then they will put themselves in a better position to be on the leaderboard come Sunday. With the NCAA basketball tournament starting up this week, think of it like a team trying to pull an upset. A team is probably not going to beat Duke by outscoring them. To pull the upset, they will need to control tempo and limit possessions. Similarly, if a golfer is going to tame this course, they will need to limit mistakes and put themselves in a position to win down the stretch. When considering the last 24 and 100 rounds played, there are five players that have demonstrated an ability to avoid getting themselves in trouble. Dustin Johnson ($11,500), Webb Simpson ($10,400), Jim Furyk ($9,200), and Lucas Glover ($9,000) could all be players that are hanging around come Sunday.
FAVORITE STUD
Dustin Johnson ($11,500)
If you are a new reader to this article, then you need to know that DJ is my default pick every time he is healthy and tees it up. But I think he wins the tournament this week so rostering him is not a bad idea. He has seven top-10 finishes in his last 10 events, including a win at WGC-Mexico a few weeks back and a fifth-place finish at The PLAYERS last week (and that was with him losing strokes putting!). But, we all know that golf DFS has a lot of variance and if you don’t want to spend all the way up for DJ, then I highly recommend Sergio Garcia ($10,100) this week. He finished fourth here last year and is good form right now. If only he could putt, he might be a top-five golfer in the world again. He is one of the best ball-strikers in the world and has an incredible approach game. These two qualities are very important this week on this course. He has two top-10 finishes in his last three tournaments. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in one of the final pairings come Sunday. Jason Day ($10,700) is another player that I could easily see winning this event (if DJ pulls a “Jason Day” and withdraws) after three straight top-10 finishes. To get additional information on some of the top studs in this tournament, see Corwin Parker’s Power Rankings.
FAVORITE VALUE
Jason Kokrak ($8,600)
There is no huge site discount or egregious pricing with Kokrak this week. I just think that getting a guy that has made 16 straight cuts and has two top-10 finishes in his last three events at essentially the average roster salary is quite the value. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks sixth in fantasy scoring and seventh in Shots Gained: Total (in large part due to his exceptional ball-striking and approach game). He has the game that sets up well for this course. Lock him in at this price and look to differentiate elsewhere. Kevin Kisner ($8,500) is another player that you might want to consider as he has five straight top-30 finishes. He tends to be a streaky player and seems to be primed for a top-10 finish soon.
FAVORITE PUNT
Adam Schenk ($6,900)
He has made seven cuts in his last eight events, including three in a row. He hasn’t yet finished high in a tournament but is the kind of golfer you can take a stab at. He has been doing well lately. In his last 12 rounds, he ranks eighth in total strokes gained (thanks in large part to his ball-striking ability and his approach game). He is also 10th in fantasy scoring. If he can make the cut, he is someone that consistently outscores his finishing position. I also like Vaughn Taylor this week ($6,800) as he ranks sixth in the field for Shots Gained: Approach for the last 24 round played when you consider Par 71 courses that measure between 7,200-7,400 yards. The approach game will be important this week, and he has that area covered. He also has two top-10 finishes this calendar year. A guy that just misses the under-$7k range but should be lower-owned that is worth consideration is Sung Kang ($7,200), who has made five straight cuts and is ranked 10th in fantasy scoring over the last 36 rounds played. He has four top-20 finishes in his last eight events, including a sixth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago. Julian Etulian ($6,300) is a deeper punt play, but he has made the cut in seven of his last eight events.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Louis Oosthuizen ($9,300)
Course history truthers might be tempted to play Oosthuizen, but he is dead to me until he shows some form again. I know that he finished seventh in 2016 at Valspar and then 16th last year, but I can’t trust him yet. He was playing great on the European Tour during the fall and even into the first few weeks of the new calendar year but has missed the cut in two of his four PGA events in 2019. His best finish was 25th at the WGC-Mexico.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
