The decision of which pick to acquire to land a specific player ultimately comes down to a few things. How bad do you want a certain prospect? Are you willing to reach? Do you want him only at a fair draft value, ADP and draft-room wise? Are you willing to buy at the high end of their range, or are you willing to miss out if you decline to reach?

These are only some of the questions you need to answer prior to determining what pick to target in trade talks. Analyzing rankings such as FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings can help you determine where your target may go in your rookie draft. But you should not stop there. Many owners will have their own cheat sheets rather than drafting based on ECR, a specific expert, or another group of experts rankings. With that in mind, I will focus on draft ranges.

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Know Your Draft Room

Knowing your draft room is a key tool when deciding which rookie draft pick you may have to target. I’ll look at some things to consider when analyzing specific draft rooms. For the ins and outs of trading for a dynasty league rookie pick, check out my in-depth breakdown here.

RBs or WRs
If you have played with some or all of the owners before, there are some questions you will want to answer. What positions are your rivals likely to target based on your knowledge of them? Some owners simply opt for talent, while others like to target certain positions. Identifying rival owner tendencies will help you determine when specific prospects may be taken.

Any Known Favorites?
Has anyone in your draft room given away what prospects they may like the most? If one of your rivals keeps talking about a player you’re targeting, you may have to move ahead of them to acquire said prospect.

Prospect Preferences
Do your rivals draft the best player available or draft for need? Do they favor one position over another? Do they favor scat backs, prototype backs, or power backs? Do they like tall receivers, speed receivers, possession receivers, or route runners? Do they draft based on film review, analytics, a mixture of both, or third-party rankings? Discerning their preferences will go a long way in giving you a more accurate depiction of what they may do come draft day.

Mock Drafts
Participate in mock drafts to gain a better indication of where players may or may not go. FantasyPros offer the most seamless and time-efficient practice. For those who may not be aware, you can do rookie mock drafts as well.

Personal Mock Drafts
Do a one-person mock based on your personal big board. This will help you evaluate which players may be available at certain picks. While it is unlikely everyone in your draft room has every prospect ranked the same as you, it is good to be cognizant of where you would slot them if the entire room had access to, and only drafted off of your board.

ADP
Finding rookie draft specific ADP is a valuable resource. Your draft will likely not play out exactly how ADP dictates, but it still helps concretize which picks you may want to target to land a coveted player.

Draft Room Projected Mock Draft
Do a mock draft for your league where you project picks based on rival owners preferences, tendencies, and rosters. This is a suggested step before each individual rookie draft.

Even with the information above and below taken into account, there are no guarantees you will be able to draft the player you want in an expected range. Every draft room is different, as are the personal preferences of the general managers involved. If you have identified a player as a “must have,” reach for them. Even if you ascertain that a reach is warranted, the impetus should be to jump within reason. There is always the option of waiting and taking the best player available. If you are acquiring a pick with the intent of landing a specific player, however, be aggressive.

To illustrate, let’s take a look at Deebo Samuel. His current rookie ADP sits at 14.90, and with that in mind, you acquire the 12th pick to make sure you can draft him. As was the case in one of the mocks listed here, he goes seventh overall, and you miss out on your target. This highlights the potential importance of being aggressive and reaching. Samuel’s draft range falls between 1.06, and 2.08, but aiming for the top end assures you have a much higher chance of landing your initial target.

1.01-1.03

D.K. Metcalf (WR – Ole Miss)
The D.K. Metcalf hype has reached an all-time high and gotten a tad out of control. After blazing a 4.33 40-yard dash, some have suggested he can go as high as second overall in the NFL Draft. If you want to land Metcalf in your rookie draft, look to acquire the first overall pick. He is the first rookie off of the board in many drafts.

N’Keal Harry (WR – Arizona State)
Despite Metcalf’s highly impressive (but largely expected) 40 time, N’Keal Harry actually experienced a bigger boost to his dynasty stock. Harry ran better than expected and proved he has a much higher floor than the Ole Miss product. In order to acquire Harry, you may very well have to possess one of the top two picks. Harry is listed by DLF as tied for first overall in terms of ADP.

A.J. Brown (WR – Ole Miss)
A.J. Brown is another Ole Miss prospect who may require an early pick to attain. His value is all over the map, going in the top two of some drafts while lasting until the seventh or eighth in others. If you do not want to pay the premium for one of the top two picks, 1.03 is the floor of which pick to target.

Hakeem Butler (WR – Iowa State)
The third player off of the board by average ADP, you will need to acquire a pick between 1.01-1.05 to land Butler. A pick in the 1.03-1.05 range should suffice, but as will be the case throughout, your draft room will dictate where he goes. To be safe, acquiring third overall should likely ensure you land the exciting 6’5″ receiver.

1.04-1.06

Kelvin Harmon (WR – NC State)
Kelvin Harmon could go off of the board anywhere between the first and 10th pick. His March ADP has him as the sixth player selected. While every draft room is unique and he could go as high as first overall in some, acquiring a pick between 1.03 and 1.10 should land him. If missing out on Harmon is not something you wish to endure, target the third pick to avoid disappointment.

Parris Campbell (WR – Ohio State)
Measured at 5’11 7/8″ and 205 pounds with 4.31 speed, Parris Campbell should get anyone excited. He is one of the biggest ADP climbers in post-combine rookie drafts but still has a wide range. Campbell has gone as early as fifth overall in some drafts while lasting until the mid-second in others. If you do not want to miss out on the Ohio State wideout, acquiring the fifth pick should be enough to acquire his services.

David Montgomery (RB – Iowa State)
David Montgomery has a huge ADP range. A player who can go as high as first overall in some drafts could slip all the way to 10th in others. At this point of the pre-draft process, netting the fourth overall pick should be enough to ensure you can add Montgomery, who currently sports a DLF ADP of 7.00.

Josh Jacobs (RB – Alabama)
The Alabama product seems to have lost some momentum by missing the NFL Scouting Combine. Josh Jacobs’ rookie draft position can fall anywhere in the 1.01-2.01 range. Currently boasting a 4.20 ADP, you’ll need to acquire the third or fourth overall pick to be safe.

Wild Cards

Marquise Brown (WR – Oklahoma)
Marquise Brown is a player whose ADP is sure to rise over the coming weeks. Currently the ninth receiver off the board with an ADP of 15.60, Brown can be stolen in the second round of some rookie drafts. Proof that drafting early has its benefits, you should be able to get away with a pick in the 1.07-2.04 range. Seventh is about the ceiling of where he will currently go due to “combine blinders,” but this could quickly change if he runs at his pro day. Depending on the timing of your draft, Brown may go anywhere between 1.01 and 2.04.

Rodney Anderson (RB – Oklahoma)
Rodney Anderson is the biggest enigma of this draft class. A player who would likely be the consensus 1.01 pick if not for a third season-ending injury, Anderson has the largest draft range of any incoming rookie. Some owners, including myself, will take him as high as 1.01, while in some drafts he could slip to the late second round. As is the case with Brown, if you are not content on taking anyone else available, moving up to fourth or fifth overall may be in order.

1.07-1.09

Darrell Henderson (RB – Memphis)
Henderson tested with solid 4.49 speed at the combine and may go off the board as early as second overall in some drafts. In draft rooms that do not slant running back, you should be able to nab Henderson with a pick between 1.05 and 1.08. You could steal him in the 1.08-1.12 in a room that favors wide receivers. To be safe, however, netting a pick in the 1.06-1.09 range should be enough to land Henderson. Just be aware that he could go as high as first overall in leagues that place a premium on running backs.

Damien Harris (RB – Alabama)
After a solid combine, Damien Harris may now be drafted over Montgomery and Devin Singletary, who tested slower in the 40-yard dash. Harris could go off the board anywhere in the 1.07-2.04 range, but as always, you will want to target the high end of that range to avoid disappointment.

Noah Fant (TE – Iowa)
Noah Fant performed as well as expected at the NFL Combine. An explosive athlete, Fant has shot up the ADP ladder since Indianapolis. Going as high as seventh overall in some rookie drafts, acquiring a pick in the 1.07-1.09 range may be necessary if he is your target.

1.10-2.01

Devin Singletary (RB – FAU)
Singletary did not exactly light the world on fire with his combine performance, and he could be had at a potential bargain because of it. The FAU back can go off the board anywhere between the 1.09 and 2.08 range. However, if you already have visions of Singletary on your dynasty squad, it is suggested you net a pick in the 1.09-2.01 range. Yes, he can be had later in some drafts, especially if you are willing to sit back and let whoever falls fall. But that’s the range to aim for to ensure you end up with Singletary.

Miles Sanders (RB – Penn State)
Miles Sanders was one of the combine’s big winners at running back. While a 4.49 40 time is not something to get terribly excited about, he had the top cone drill time and the third-best shuttle time. Sanders is a smooth athlete who is currently the fifth running back off of the board based on ADP. He’s going as high as second overall in some drafts while lasting to the mid-second in others. As is the case with Henderson, where he goes in your draft depends on the league. Running back-slanted rooms could easily see him taken in the top five. Leagues that favor receivers, meanwhile, could see him last until 2.06. With an ADP of 12.00, a pick between 1.10, and 2.01 is suggested. With that said, I cannot stress enough the importance of knowing your draft room. He could easily be selected in the first five picks.

T.J. Hockenson (TE – Iowa)
T.J. Hockenson had a strong combine, and while he will not be the first tight end off of the board in most drafts, he could receive the nod in some with a 1.10-2.08 draft range. Hockenson currently sports a 12.08 ADP based on DLF mock draft data, so you likely need to acquire a pick in this range to land him.

Justice Hill (RB – Oklahoma State)
With the combine’s fastest 40,  the expectation was that Justice Hill would become a first-round fixture in rookie drafts. With “sizeism” still a thing in 2019, the exciting former Oklahoma State runner is still not getting the love he deserves. Hill can be liberated near the end of the first to the mid-second in many drafts, a value that is too good to ignore. With his strong combine, skill set, and increased bulk, he is shaping up to be a potential steal. The ninth running back off of the board according to DLF ADP data, you can typically land him with a pick between 2.01 and 3.06. This exercise is about landing your target while not overpaying, so obtaining a pick in the 1.09-2.04 range should be enough to secure his services. As always, aim for the top end to avoid disappointment, even if picking him there may be considered a reach in some draft rooms.

2.02-2.05

Alex Barnes (RB – Kansas State)
Despite his very impressive combine, Alex Barnes can still be snagged as quite the potential value. His performance could get him drafted to compete for a sizeable role, and thus he should likely be coming off the board a little earlier than he currently is. A pick in the 2.02-2.05 range is suggested or ensure you land Barnes, however, as every draft room is different. In some rookie drafts, he’s not getting selected at all in the first four rounds. In others, he may go near the top of the second. There is a buy-low window of sorts here, as many have not heard enough about Barnes to take him seriously. His 4.59 40-time will also throw some rival owners off, especially those who don’t look at his size and lateral quickness testing.

Irv Smith Jr. (TE – Alabama)
Irv Smith Jr. did not run a 4.5 40-yard dash or test as well as the two Iowa tight ends. However, he still may have actually helped his draft stock more than the two former Hawkeyes with an impressive combine. Fant and Hockenson were already in the first-round mix in both real life and dynasty. Smith performed well enough to move ahead of one, or both, in the eyes of some. Likely to come off of the board in the 2.04-2.12 range, targeting a pick in the top end of the spectrum may be required to make sure you get your man.

Andy Isabella (WR – UMass)
Flashing 4.31 speed and great college production, Andy Isabella’s ADP is sure to keep rising. He was not even in the top 10 of DLF’s ADP in February, but he has vaulted up the board after an impressive Combine. A prolific receiver with track speed, his stock will skyrocket when the general consensus realizes that Isabella does indeed have the tools to play on the outside. He can come off the board anywhere between 1.10 and 2.12 in rookie drafts. If you are intent on acquiring him, aim for the top end of that range.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.