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FanDuel PGA Preview: Corales Championship

FanDuel PGA Preview: Corales Championship

The top 64 golfers in the world are off to Austin, Texas to play in the WGC-Dell Match Play event so that will give some of the top Web.com guys and some of the lesser known PGA regulars a chance to make a name for themselves this week as the PGA Tour makes a stop in the Dominican Republic for the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship. FanDuel has four golfers priced at $11,000 or above. You’ll probably do a double take when you see who they are, but remember that pricing is relative to that particular tournament and the strength of the field. This week’s event is weak, which is why you see Jhonattan Vegas as the highest-priced golfer at $11,400 (after being only $8,100 the last time he played). Sungjae Im ($11,300), Charl Schwartzel ($11,100), and Denny McCarthy ($11,000) round out the golfers that are at least $1,000 above the average roster spot. FanDuel gives you $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000.

Remember, that golf is probably the most challenging of the DFS contests since it has so much variance. As an example, Paul Casey just won after missing the cut the previous week. Louis Oosthuizen missed the cut in two of his previous four PGA events but finished runner-up this past weekend. Gary Woodland and Keegan Bradley had the PGA’s longest streaks for consecutive cuts made (22 and 19, respectively) and they both missed the cut. Other notables that missed the cut after coming into the tournament with sizable cut streaks included Webb Simpson (16), Patrick Reed (12), and J.T. Poston (8). Jason Day, who has four top-10 finishes on the year, also missed the cut. All of that to say, golf can be frustrating and fun all at the same time. Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind.

All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.

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CORALES TOURNAMENT NOTES

The course for the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship is really long (7,668 yards) but it is not particularly difficult. The long par 72 course has wide and forgiving fairways.

This event began in 2016 as a Web.com tournament stop. Last year was the first year that it was a full-time PGA Tour event.

Dominic Bozzelli won in 2016 at 24-under par, Nate Lashley won in 2017 at 20-under par, and Brice Garnett won last year with 18-under par.

The cut line was Even par last year after being four-under par in 2017 and five-under par in 2016.

The golfers in this week’s field that have finished in the top five at this event in the previous two years include: Brice Garnett (2018), Paul Dunne (2018), Harris English (2018), Kelly Kraft (2018), Tom Lovelady (2018), Seamus Power (2018), Denny McCarthy (2018), Seung-su Han (2018), Nate Lashley (2017), Rafael Campos (2017), Seth Reeves (2017), Dominic Bozzelli (2016), and Roberto Diaz (2016).

RECENT FORM

Jhonattan Vegas ($11,400)
He has four top-25 finishes in his last five events, including a third-place finish at The PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago. He leads this field in total strokes gained in the last five events. Has made five of seven cuts in the 2019 calendar year.

Sungjae Im ($11,300)
He missed the cut at The PLAYERS Championship but so did a lot of other golfers. That missed cut was sandwiched between a third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a fourth-place finish last week at the Valspar Championship when he made a valiant Sunday charge. Only Vegas has gained more total strokes in the last five events than Im has (of the players in this field).

Nate Lashley ($10,800)
Made eight straight cuts prior to missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He had two top-12 finishes in his three PGA Tour events prior to the API.

Brian Stuard ($9,100)
He has made the cut in seven of his eight events in the 2019 calendar year. The only MC is at The PLAYERS Championship, which can be dismissed easily. He is coming off a top-20 finish at the Valspar this past week.

COURSE FIT (KEY STATS)

Birdie or Better %
The ability to score is important on this course (not only to contend but also to make the cut). There are six players in the field that are in the top 50 for birdie or better percentage on the PGA Tour for the 2018-19 season so far. Sungjae Im ($11,300), Nate Lashley ($10,800), Dominic Bozzelli ($9,500), Hank Lebioda ($8,600), and D.J. Trahan ($7,500) all have the demonstrated the ability to go low on any hole. Bozzelli is the only player of the six that is ranked in the top 20.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
There are six players in the field that are ranked in the top 10 on the PGA Tour for their tee-to-green game for the last 12 and 50 rounds played. Jhonattan Vegas ($11,400), Sungjae Im ($11,300), Joaquin Niemann ($10,600), Corey Conners ($9,600), Adam Svensson ($8,600), and Hank Lebioda ($8,600) are all players that should be in the mix come Sunday if they don’t have a poor putting week.

Driving Distance
This is a course that is extremely long so driving distance could come into play. The fairways are wide and the rough is less penal than other courses, so accuracy isn’t quite as important as usual. There are four players teeing it up this week that rank in the top-25 on the PGA Tour for driving distance. Trey Mullinax ($10,300), Sam Burns ($9,900), Seth Reeves ($8,300), and Grayson Murray ($8,000) are big hitters that might be worth a look.

Greens in Regulation
Last year, there was a clear distinction between those that hit greens in regulation and those who didn’t. If you were hitting greens in regulation then you probably were finishing in the top 20. This event actually played below the tour average for GIR so if we can find golfers that can consistently hit greens, then we may have ourselves a Sunday contender. The five golfers that are ranked in the top 10 for GIR in both the last 12 and 50 rounds are Jhonattan Vegas ($11,400), Trey Mullinax ($10,300), Johnson Wagner ($8,900), Carlos Ortiz ($8,900), and Shawn Stefani ($8,200).

FAVORITE STUD

Joaquin Niemann ($10,600)
I am almost ashamed to use the word “stud” in describing any of these players this week. Vegas and Im are certainly fine plays that I don’t hate. Lashley has been playing decently lately and won here in 2017. None of the players are sure things to finish near the top, or even make the cut, for that matter. All of the players priced up top have flaws. I actually bet Sungjae Im on Sunday morning to catch lightning in a bottle and come from behind to win the Valspar. Boy, did he almost do it too. The 2017 Web.com money leader is bound to get a win eventually. I will probably sprinkle him into some of my lineups. But when I look at this pricing tier, there is only one golfer that makes me think “stud” and that is Niemann. Granted, he had a shaky start to 2019 but since then he has made four straight cuts. He has yet to really break through this calendar year but there is no doubting his talent. I love his game and he is going to break through for a win one of these days. He is a great ball-striker and has a great tee-to-green game, which is needed to do well here. Remember, that the former world’s number-one ranked amateur had four top-10 finishes in his first nine starts as a professional last year so he definitely has the talent to contend on Sunday at a tournament like this. His price is also very affordable at just $600 more than the average roster spot, as he was priced in the $11k range back in the fall.

FAVORITE CORE PLAY

Adam Schenk ($9,400)
My main core play will be Niemann as he will probably be the starting point in most of my lineups. However, I have been playing a lot of Schenk recently and expect that to continue this week even though he is priced up significantly. He stumbled a bit last week at the Valspar but had made the cut in seven of his last eight events prior to that. He had three straight top-30 finishes prior to his MC at the Valspar. He seems to like this course as he finished 12th last year to go along with top-40 finishes in the previous two years. In the last 24 rounds he has played, he ranks in the top 15 for greens hit in regulation, ball-striking, approach game, and tee-to-green. Overall, he is sixth in the field in total strokes gained over the last 24 rounds. I also expect to play some Kelly Kraft ($9,200) as he has recently made the cut at both the Valspar and The PLAYERS, as well as finishing third here last year.

FAVORITE VALUE PLAY

Jonathan Byrd ($9,000)
Leads the field with eight straight made cuts on the PGA Tour (he did miss the cut in the Web.com Tour Championship back in September). He has three top-25 finishes in his last four events. He hasn’t exactly torn up the Corales, but he has made the cut each of the last two years. We are getting a site discount on Byrd as he is the 19th priced player on DraftKings at just $8,300 ($100 below the average roster spot), but he is the 33rd priced player on FanDuel.

FAVORITE PUNT PLAY

D.J. Trahan ($7,500)
He has only played three times this calendar year. Since missing the cut at the Desert Classic, he has two straight top-20 finishes. Overall, he has made the cut in six of his last seven events going back to last year’s Barabsol event. During that time, he has four top-10 finishes. He finished 60th here last year. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in fantasy scoring and fourth in total strokes gained among golfers in this field. He is a very good ball-striker and has a solid approach game. His biggest weakness has been his putter. With all of this being said, I probably won’t construct many rosters that that dip down this low. I probably won’t go much below Brandon Harkins ($8,700), Cameron Tringale ($8,600), or Hank Lebioda ($8,500).

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.

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