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Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner: Week 1

Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner: Week 1

Opening Day is Thursday, and with the regular season’s return comes the return of the Fantasy Baseball Weekly Planner. Week 1 is a bit different than the standard week, namely because in most fantasy leagues, it consists of the four days (Thursday through Sunday) this week as well as the next full week. This piece thus focuses on a week plus of action, and the column will return to its standard publish day of Friday for the second week.

Even with the extended weekly scoring period, five teams — all included in the notable matchups section below — draw the short stick with only eight games. The three teams conversely playing 11 games are also highlighted below. Those eight teams are joined by a pair of NL Central clubs treated to more than a handful of contests in homer-friendly parks. An AL East powerhouse only plays nine games, but will do so against soft pitching in homer-friendly parks. Then there’s the standard look at where the Rockies are playing.

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Notable Matchups

White Sox at Royals (3), at Indians (2), vs. Mariners (3)
Week 1 requires some extra speculation looking ahead due to teams not announcing the order of their rotation — among other factors. What isn’t speculation is the Pale Hose playing only eight games, tying them with four other teams for the low in this scoring period. The handedness split is likely six right-handers and two southpaws, keeping Yonder Alonso in the mix as a viable corner infielder or utility option in deeper leagues despite the short week. The righty-heavy split is also favorable for Yoan Moncada, who is much better against righties than lefties.

Royals vs. White Sox (3), vs. Twins (2), at Tigers (3)
Kansas City’s offense will likely be one of MLB’s worst this season, so tying for the scoring period’s fewest games played sounds the death knell for their deep-league options. Of course, that doesn’t mean gamers should sit the likes of Whit Merrifield or Adalberto Mondesi.

Twins vs. Indians (3), at Royals (2), at Phillies (3)
As if playing just eight games in the first “week” isn’t bad enough, the Twins draw three elite starters in Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco right out of the chute. They’ll also likely face Aaron Nola in Philadelphia. Speaking of playing in Philadelphia, three games in an NL park will likely limit Nelson Cruz to pinch-hitting duties. Gamers in leagues with weekly lineup changes wouldn’t be getting too cute by sitting Cruz in favor of a solid bench option with more games.

Phillies vs. Braves (3), at Nationals (2), vs. Twins (3)
Despite Philadelphia’s light schedule, sitting any key members of its high-octane, revamped lineup is ill-advised. Atlanta’s rotation is banged up, so Philadelphia’s supremely talented lineup should hang some big numbers in the NL East battle to open the year.

Nationals vs. Mets (3), vs. Phillies (2), at Mets (3)
The Nationals rounds out the clubs with an eight-game week. They’ll face Jacob deGrom in the season opener, and assuming the Mets use their second and third-best starters in the series’ ensuing games, they’ll draw Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. That’s a tough trio to open the season against, and they’ll likely see the Mets’ No. 3 starter a second time to begin the second three-game series against their NL East foe. On the plus side, those daunting matchups are offset by some less intimidating games. Start Washington’s studs (i.e. Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Juan Soto) in leagues with weekly lineup changes, but don’t be afraid to sit fringe options in smaller leagues where the bench options are strong.

Yankees vs. Orioles (3), vs. Tigers (3), at Orioles (3)
The Yankees play one more game than the aforementioned quintet of clubs, and theirs come against the lowly Orioles and Tigers. Both opponents have dreadful rotations, and six of the nine games will be in the Bronx. Yankee Stadium’s park factor for runs (1.060) is the seventh highest, and its park factor for homers (1.265) is second highest. Even though 16 teams play more games than the Yankees in the season’s first fantasy week, the layout is otherwise dreamy for the Bronx Bombers.

Reds vs. Pirates (3), vs. Brewers (3), at Pirates (4)
Cincinnati’s first six games of the 2019 campaign will take place in its hitter-friendly home digs. Great American Ball Park ranks fourth in park factor for homers (1.205) with a favorable run factor of 1.045. Yes, they close the week with four games in the run (0.951) and homer (0.841) suppressing PNC Park, but the good offsets the bad. Furthermore, lefty hitters Jesse Winker and Joey Votto get a massive value boost from projecting to face only right-handed starting pitching for their first three series.

Rockies at Marlins (4), at Rays (3), vs. Dodgers (3)
The Rockies call MLB’s greatest hitter’s paradise home, but they’ll open their 2019 campaign on the road. The first is a four-game set in the park with MLB’s lowest stadium factor for runs (0.826). Tropicana Field has the sixth-lowest park factor for runs at 0.905. Having said that, the lineup gets a boost from shedding the pitcher for a designated hitter in Tampa Bay, and they’ll close the scoring period with three games at Coors Field. Add in that they play 10 games, and the pros out-number the one obvious con of playing seven road games compared to only three at home.

Brewers vs. Cardinals (4), at Reds (3), vs. Cubs (3)
The Brewers will have a golden opportunity to rack up dingers immediately this year. Along with starting at Great American Ball Park, Miller Park (1.104) had the seventh-highest park factor for home runs. Those are two tater-friendly locations to open the year with 10 games, and the pitching matchups project to be neither favorable nor unfavorable. Average opposition plays well in a pair of hitter-friendly parks.

Red Sox at Mariners (4), at Athletics (4), at Diamondbacks (3)
The Red Sox will start their World Series defense as road warriors. The away venues lean pitcher-friendly, which isn’t ideal for their hitters. Working in their favor, though, they’re one of only three teams treated to 11 games in as many days. The volume more than counteracts the unfavorable park factors. Fire up Boston’s studs and fringe fantasy options with confidence.

Athletics vs. Angels (4), vs. Red Sox (4), at Astros (3)
Oakland’s lineup was dealt a significant blow in its two-game series in Japan — more on that to come. The pitching matchups could be split nearly down the middle between righties (six) and lefties (five) depending on how the rotations shake out for the Angels, Red Sox, and Astros. Khris Davis and Matt Chapman should be lineup staples regardless of Oakland’s weekly schedule, but Marcus Semien, Jurickson Profar, Ramon Laureano, and Stephen Piscotty get the biggest boost from the 11-game schedule as fringe starters in standard and smaller leagues.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers (4), vs. Orioles (3), at Indians (4)
The Blue Jays round out the trio of 11-game clubs. The Tigers and Orioles both lack big-league caliber starting pitching, so Toronto’s hitters will have an opportunity to fatten their stat lines against subpar opponents for their first seven games. Things don’t completely come up roses, however, as they’ll probably see Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger to wrap up the week. Regardless of the tough matchups at the end, volume rules the roost and provides a value bump to Toronto’s hitters. Danny Jansen already ranks as a top-10 catcher and starter in all single-catcher formats for me, but even those less bullish on his 2019 outlook should view him as a single-catcher starter in even the shallowest of leagues with weekly lineup changes for this week.

Hitter Notes

Matt Olson (OAK – 1B)
The hitter and pitcher notes will be light this week due to an increased amount of attention paid to the matchup section for the extra-long week. As alluded to above, Olson had surgery to remove the hamate bone from his right hand after breaking it in Oakland’s second game of the season in Japan. He’s expected to miss four to six weeks, which immediately dings his fantasy value. That’s not where the value decrease ends, though. Olson’s fantasy calling card is his power, and it’s common for hitters to initially struggle on that end after returning from surgery to remove the hamate bone. If you have an injured list spot to stash him in, go for it. If not, he’s cut material in 12-team mixers or shallower.

Scooter Gennett (CIN – 2B)
Gennett also suffered a significant injury, and he’ll be on the shelf for two to three months with a strained groin. Gennett’s absence removes a big bat from Cincinnati’s lineup, but it could prove beneficial for its pitchers with Jose Peraza shifting to second base and defensive whiz Jose Iglesias starting at shortstop. Gennett should be stashed in leagues of all sizes by gamers who have an IL spot. In 12-team mixed leagues or deeper formats, unless benches are extremely small, hold Gennett even if an IL spot isn’t available.

Pitcher Notes

Corey Knebel (MIL – RP)
Knebel has been pitching with a slight tear in his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) since 2015, but the Brewers shut him down after aggravating it. He doesn’t have a timetable to return, and while rest and rehab is a possibility, so is Tommy John surgery. If you have an IL spot to utilize, do so. If not, cut him in most formats. Josh Hader goes from teetering around a top-10 reliever — not ranking higher only because of the likelihood of limited save opportunities –to a slam dunk top-five reliever unless the team adds Craig Kimbrel.


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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