There are many different kinds of scoring settings in bracket contests. Some are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 from the first round to the champion while most others put much more weight into the champion. While you might want to load your bracket with upsets in those contests with more conservative scoring, some others give a load of points for correctly picking upsets. Today, I’ll tell you my favorite upset options in order of how likely I deem them to be, not only for the first round but for the Sweet 16 and even beyond. Afterward, I’ll give you my model’s favorite picks for your survivor contests. Let’s get right into it!
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First-Round Cinderellas
- (12) Oregon > (5) Wisconsin
- (13) UC Irvine > (4) Kansas St.
- (11) St. Mary’s > (6) Villanova
- (13) Northeastern > (4) Kansas
- (11) Arizona St/St. John’s > (6) Buffalo
- (11) Ohio St. > (6) Iowa St.
- (14) Yale > (3) LSU
This is not me suggesting that all the 7 and 8 seeds will beat all the 9 and 10s. Rather, those tend to be such coin flips that I don’t think they should be regarded as upsets when the lesser seed comes out with a victory. Once we get into the 11 and 12 seeds, however, we are talking about teams who are only being picked in 10 to 30% of brackets. If you can nail the upsets that will happen, you’ll have a nice cushion over the rest of your contest. With that said, getting too cute and picking more upsets than necessary can hurt your chances so proceed with caution. That should especially be the case this year as the selection committee did a tremendous job seeding teams. Not only that, but there were enough bubble busters in conference tournaments that the worst at-large team is an 11-seed, and frankly, none of the play-in teams are especially dangerous. What’s more, is that the teams I deem vulnerable, be it Kansas or LSU, don’t have especially challenging opponents. Perhaps Northeastern or Yale can still pull it off, but the odds are definitely against them. There are two picks that stand out above the rest as my favorite first-round cinderellas:
Oregon has been playing spectacular basketball since they switched their lineup to four big men. In fact, no team in the country has played better defense than Oregon since that happened, and as a result, they blitzed through the Pac 12 conference tournament. That isn’t to say I believe in the false narrative of “getting hot at the right time”, but in Oregon’s case, they just became an excellent team as the year went on. I wouldn’t have been surprised if they were seeded a 9 or 10, and frankly, they may be good enough now to be a 6 or 7 if they’d played this lineup all year. Their opponent, meanwhile, has offensive inefficiencies as it is. This isn’t to say Wisconsin is a bad team or even deserving of less than a 5-seed, but they just happened to draw the toughest double-digit opponent in recent memory.
As odd as it may be, my other favorite first-round upset is in the same sub-region. Like Oregon, UC Irvine made a lineup change (in their case it was from getting healthy) and have since rattled off 16 straight wins. They’ve got 30 total on the season thanks to a fierce defense, especially in the paint. At full health, Irvine is closer to a 10 or 11 seed rather than a 13. This is unfortunate for their opponent, Kansas State, who may have been the most over-seeded team in the tournament. At full strength, they are more like a 6-seed than the 4 they were rewarded with. The thing is, however, that Dean Wade is doubtful to play in this one, which is a sizeable blow. It is rare for a 4/13 matchup to be a coin flip, but with the injury to Wade, that is essentially what we have here.
Sweet Sixteen Sleepers
- (7) Nevada > (2) Michigan
- (12) Oregon > (4) Kansas St.
- (13) UC Irvine > (5) Wisconsin
- (11) Ohio St. > (3) Houston
- (7) Cincinnati > (2) Tennessee
- (7) Louisville > (2) Michigan St.
- (8) Utah St. > (1) North Carolina
If the two upsets above happen, one of Oregon and UC Irvine would advance to the Sweet 16. In fact, you could make a case that Oregon is the best team in that sub-region despite the 12-seed. Neither is my favorite Sweet 16 Sleeper, however. That would be Nevada, should meet the weakest 2-seed in the second round and could advance back to the Sweet 16 and beyond this year. Keep in mind, last year they were one point away from the Elite Eight after knocking out 2-seed Cincinnati in the second round. They returned their top three scorers and were ranked #7 in the preseason. Since then, they haven’t done much to change that, going 9-3 against Top 100 teams including a 23-point win over 8-seed Utah St. Nevada has a top-five scoring margin in the country and just so happens to be in the easiest region in the tournament.
Ohio State is a frustrating case because they’ve got a ton of talent for an 11-seed now that Kaleb Wesson is returning. The issue, however, is that they draw the toughest 6-seed in the first round. If they can find a way to knock off Iowa State, they’d have a similar challenge in 3-seed Houston. If it were any other 11-seed with these two matchups, I wouldn’t give a sleeper run the light of day in my mind, but Ohio State is a special double-digit seed who could do some serious damage if they play their best basketball.
Elite Eight and Beyond
- (5) Auburn > (1) North Carolina
- (7) Nevada > (3) Texas Tech
- (6) Iowa St. > (2) Kentucky
- (6) Maryland > (2) Michigan St.
- (7) Louisville > (3) LSU
- (4) Virginia Tech > (1) Duke
- (12) Oregon > (1) Virginia
Every tournament is different, and this year the story is that the top three teams in the country are so far and away better than everyone else. You’ve got to adjust every year and this time around it means not getting too cute. Make sure to move Duke, Virginia and Gonzaga through, but there are a few other top seeds who could be toppled before the Elite Eight. Nevada has already been discussed as a Sweet 16 team, but frankly has what it takes to get past Texas Tech and potentially Gonzaga to sneak into the Final Four as a 7-seed. Iowa State is another darkhorse for a deep run. They play more like a four-seed and go up against a Houston team in the second round if they can get past Ohio State, then a weak 2-seed in Kentucky should they both make the Sweet 16. From there, it is even possible for them to defeat UNC, who is the weakest 1-seed in the bracket by far. Virtually no one will have them going that far, so adding them into an otherwise chalky Final Four might be enough to separate you for the top prize.
Iowa State isn’t my pick to win that region, however, it is Auburn, who besides Oregon, is probably the most under-seeded team in the entire bracket. Auburn has performed like a strong 3-seed this year and is in the ideal region to make a run. Perhaps more importantly, they are made for March. This team forces over 20 turnovers per game which is best in the nation. Additionally, they are one of the top three-point shooting teams, scoring an absurd 43% of their points from behind the arc. Now, that does make them vulnerable to an upset but also means they can beat any team in the country any given night. It is telling that they kept things tight with Duke until the very end on a neutral court. My bracket has them getting through to the Final Four with the other 1-seeds.
First Round Survivor Picks
- (5) Mississippi St. > Liberty
- (3) Houston > Georgia St.
- (3) Purdue > Old Dominion
- (4) Kansas > Northeastern
- (2) Michigan > Montana
- (7) Louisville > Minnesota *large contest*
- (7) Cincinnati > Iowa *large contest*
- (8) Syracuse > Baylor *large contest*
The strategy in most survivor formats is to use a team who will likely win in the current round but won’t be useable moving forward since you can’t use the same team twice. As you can see in the chart above, my model, which draws from a consensus of predictive rankings, has Mississippi State and Houston as the best investments for the first round of your survivor contest. The rest are ranked in order. Now, if you play in a larger contest, you’ll need to take a little more risk early on to outlast all the other entries. You may not want to use both Louisville and Syracuse, but one of them could be enough to save you a Houston or Purdue for the True 32, which in turn, will free up Tennessee and/or Michigan State for your Sweet 16 pick.
Second Round Survivor Targets
- (4) Virginia Tech > (5) Mississippi St.
- (4) Florida St. > (5) Marquette
- (3) Texas Tech > (6) Buffalo
- (3) LSU > (6) Maryland
- (1) UNC > (8) Utah St.
- (5) Auburn > (4) Kansas *large contest*
The same concept is true in the second round, but as you might imagine, some of these teams may already be knocked out. You can adjust your picks accordingly by taking a look at FiveThirtyEight’s projection table. If both Oregon and UC Irvine win, Oregon may leap to the top of this table. Just be sure to find teams with a greater than 60% chance (once they advance) to win in the second round but closer to 30% in the following contest. Once again, in deeper contests, you may need to take a chance on a team like Auburn or even Maryland in order to free up Kentucky and Gonzaga in the next round so that you can use Duke and Virginia in the Elite Eight.
I’ll tweet out my full bracket Wednesday afternoon so keep an eye out for that and don’t hesitate to tweet me a question @BobbyFantasyPro
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