For those who may be unfamiliar with Zeile Projections, it gathers the projections from multiple sources and takes the average of those systems. Since each projection system evaluates players and factors differently, the most accurate projection system ultimately is a combined approach, such as Zeile. Choosing one projection system over another may prove to be challenging, as one may be aggressive and another may be conservative. One might favor hitters and vice versa. 

The Zeile Projections combine seven projection systems that include Steamer, THE BAT, ESPN, CBS Sports, Razzball, RotoChamp, and numberFire. While the accuracy may be better than any single projection system, in this article, I’ll find pitchers whose Zeile projection is better than their draft position. This does not automatically suggest that they are bargains, though. I’ll explain my thoughts on the projection and whether or not these pitchers are worth the gamble.

Note: The statistics listed under each player’s name are their Zeile Projections.

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Trevor Bauer (CLE)

Bauer is projected for a lower ERA than Carlos Carrasco, Luis Severino, and Gerrit Cole. He’s projected to compile more strikeouts than Blake Snell and Aaron Nola. The projected win totals are essentially equal across the board. I’d argue that Bauer should be ahead of all of them, yet his ADP puts him behind them all. Prior to taking a comebacker off his right leg that caused a fractured fibula, Bauer averaged 6.64 innings per start over 25 games. 

Given another projected nine starts, Bauer would have amassed just over 219 innings pitched, which would have ranked third in all of baseball. I’m not one to extrapolate in small samples, but when we have nearly 75% of a full season with Bauer’s numbers, it’s not a bad idea. So let’s extrapolate!

Obviously, his ERA/WHIP would remain at a very solid 2.22/1.09 with a total of 282 strikeouts, good for third behind only Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Had it not been for the freak leg injury, we would be talking about Bauer as the third best pitcher in baseball last year. I’m a firm believer in Bauer and his ability to micromanage everything about his mechanics. It’s obviously been working for him and I view him as the fifth best pitcher in 2019. He’s a bargain at his current ADP of 36 and the 11th pitcher off the board. 

Take a look at this beauty on how good Bauer was last year, especially in the second half. Those swinging strike rates and the ERA hovering around 2.00 are among the game’s elite.

Charlie Morton (TB)

What’s not to like about a 35-year-old starter coming off a career year and moving to the AL East? On the surface, Morton screams regression. As a new member of the Rays, Morton’s team will face the Yankees and Red Sox nearly 40 times, which is far from ideal. The question remains, can Morton prove us wrong once again? 

The trigger that transformed Morton into an impact starter was the velocity spike. Jumping from 92-93 MPH to 96+ MPH did wonders for Morton. Even after a bump of over 20 innings from 2017 to 2018, Morton’s average fastball velocity actually went up by 0.6 MPH in 2018. 

However, average fastball velocity is not everything. Morton saw a slight dip in velocity throughout the season, from 96.5 MPH in April to 95.2 MPH in September. As a result, Morton’s strikeout rate went from just over 30% through July, down to 24% in the final two months. Other than the dip in strikeouts, there was no decrease in his overall effectiveness.

I have two concerns with Morton going forward. At the age of 35, does Morton have enough in the tank to get through another 160+ innings with the quality that the Zeile Projections have him at? Based on the declining velocity and strikeout rate in 2018, I don’t believe so. I think as Morton fatigues down the stretch, his ERA and WHIP will catch up with his performance. 

The second concern I have is with the increased barrel rate. In 2016 and 2017, Morton kept his barrel rate below four percent. Last year, his barrel rate went up to 5.8%. Given the tougher competition in the AL East, I don’t see this dropping. 

Given the projection above, Morton would be a great value as the 29th pitcher off the board. I just don’t see him maintaining those numbers through six months. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a solid pick at his current ADP; I just wouldn’t reach for him.

Cole Hamels (CHC)

When the Cubs acquired Hamels at the trade deadline last year, all he did was go 4-3 with a minuscule 2.36 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. To some extent, Zeile Projections seem to agree with the success once he moved out of the Texas heat and over to the Windy City. Certain Cubs fans have been excited about this resurgence of Hamels, but let’s not get carried away. This is not a Justin Verlander situation where he dealt with an injury and was still able to throw 96 MPH even at age 35. Hamels is not a flamethrower; his bread-and-butter used to be his changeup. 

While the changeup is still a very good pitch, Hamels has improved his cutter. He has managed to get strikeouts at a near-30% clip when throwing his changeup and his cutter. That’s incredible. 

The problem is his four-seam fastball. It’s bad. Plain and simple. Last year, the four-seamer had a 171 wRC+ against it, and his sinker wasn’t much better at 137. 

What’s the solution then? Throw the fastball and sinker with less frequency. Unfortunately, the fastball is the only pitch Hamels throws for strikes with a 50% or better zone rate. Hamels still needs the fastball to get ahead. If he cuts its usage down, his walk rate could rise. I’m a little lower on Hamels than the projections have him. I don’t see Hamels amassing 178 strikeouts and predict an ERA closer to 4.00.

Collin McHugh (HOU)

McHugh is being taken as the 57th starting pitcher off the board. Zeile Projections believe he will absolutely crush his ADP and provide owners with massive value. After the news that Josh James is dealing with tightness in his quad, McHugh has locked up a rotation spot. If you recall, McHugh came up as a starter in 2014 with the Astros. Over the next three seasons as a starter, he threw 543 innings with a 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and an 8.4 K/9. Those are some very solid numbers for a starting pitcher over the course of three seasons. 

So then why the hell did the Astros move him to the bullpen? Well, the Astros had a rotation that consisted of Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, a resurgent Charlie Morton, Brad Peacock, and they added Justin Verlander at the deadline. McHugh was the odd man out who was relegated to long-man duty. It worked out since the Astros won the World Series that year.

Alright, back to McHugh. As you can see, last year McHugh was extremely effective out of the bullpen. The question is whether or not he can succeed now that he’s back in the rotation. McHugh doesn’t throw hard, but his fastball had been a good pitch for him while in the bullpen. McHugh uses his curveball as his primary breaking ball and boy, is it a good one, with a 40% strikeout rate in 2018. 

McHugh has always thrown his curveball, but he started throwing a slider in 2017. The slider actually had a -14 wRC+ last year, where 100 is average. Yes, the negative belongs there; it’s not a mistake. If McHugh can properly utilize his two breaking balls to go along with an above-average fastball, we may be looking at a potential top 30 starting pitcher in 2019 at nearly half the price.

Robbie Erlin (SD)

Oh boy, did I have to dig deep on this one. Erlin’s current ADP sits at a cool 534. That’s basically NL-only territory. At this cost, Erlin is a shot in the dark. Despite the low volume and innings based on the projections, Erlin seems to be a good value. Let’s find out if he’s worth rostering. 

Erlin threw 109 innings in 2018 over 12 starts and 27 relief appearances with 10 of those 12 starts coming in August and September. That’s where I want to focus because Erlin is slated to start in the rotation, and if he has any value, that’s where it will be. The results were not good as Erlin averaged just under five innings per start and a 5.11 ERA.

The metrics showed that he was unlucky, but Erlin needs to rely heavily on his changeup and curveball with his low-velocity fastball. Neither offspeed offering has elite swinging strike rates, so I wouldn’t expect a strikeout rate higher than 18-19%. Given Erlin’s injury history and him coming off a career-high 109 innings in the majors, I don’t expect Erlin to match his projected numbers in 2019.

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Max Freeze is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Max, check out his archive and follow him @FreezeStats.