This might be hard to believe, but the MLB regular season is already 1/10 of the way done. Sure, it’s tough to make judgments until we’re a little bit further through. But give it roughly a few short weeks, and we’ll be at the season’s quarter mark. Just like always, time will pass quicker than we know it. Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but let’s also not sit idly by and watch the season pass before our very eyes. We’ve got some burning questions to answer.
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What should you do with Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel?
During the weekend, news came out of both of these pitchers’ camps. Keuchel, on one hand, is reportedly open to a one-year deal. Kimbrel, meanwhile, is still holding out for a longer contract.
What should that news mean for fantasy owners?
Drop them both.
Let’s talk Keuchel first. Sometimes, people get wrapped up in the allure of stashing a player. Keuchel is a perfect example. It’s easy to forget that he was very average in 2018. We could go through his very pedestrian frontline stats, but you probably already know all of that. What you may have forgotten, however, was that Keuchel had some incredibly concerning things happen last year. To sum them up, he essentially lost his slider that helped him be so successful prior. His contact rate (81.6%) was the highest he had allowed since his rookie season, and he could hardly strike anyone out. Maybe that’s why he still remains a free agent. If no MLB team is willing to sign Keuchel, there’s no reason why over 65% of fantasy teams should still have him rostered.
Kimbrel is an even more interesting case. Unlike Keuchel, Kimbrel was elite last season. That’s why when I say he’s droppable, it probably comes as a shock to many. Two things stand out in regards to the reliever, though. First, he is obviously willing to sit out, and if he hasn’t caved yet, why would he cave anytime soon? (I’m not saying I agree with the logic, but it’s the truth. Ask Le’Veon Bell owners.) Kimbrel is holding out for a long-term deal, and he’s not going to settle for less anytime soon. That’s not encouraging for fantasy owners.
On top of that, we’ve seen a few cases of relievers signing late. Our last example was courtesy of Greg Holland in 2018. That went well. It took Holland essentially four months, being released, and signing with another team to finally come around. By the time Kimbrel gets ready, the season will be over. Yes, Kimbrel is not Holland, but I have no faith he will sign, get prepared, and find success meaningful enough for fantasy owners to hold the roster spot. If you can’t trade him, he’s droppable if you need the roster spot.
Which current top-10 batter is least likely to maintain success this season?
We’re still early, but the number of “non-star” names in the current top 10 of batters remains astounding. Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger, Austin Meadows, Trey Mancini, and Tim Anderson all have had shockingly strong early season campaigns. It wouldn’t be surprising for all five of these players to drop out of the top 10 before long, but it also would be far from surprising for a few of them to stay successful.
Of these players, Mancini is the least likely to remain in the top 10. He wasn’t even drafted in plenty of leagues after struggling badly in 2018. On top of this, unlike those other names in the top 10, Mancini’s metrics don’t project sustained success. He has an incredibly inflated .378 BABIP and a completely unsustainable 30% HR/FB rate to thank for his strong start. If Mancini hits 60 home runs and bats .340, you can blame me. Much more likely, a big slump is in store for him sometime soon.
Who is my early-season pick for breakout pitcher of the year?
Tyler Glasnow’s early success has been incredible. Sorry to spill the beans so early, but this guy is flat out exciting to watch. He owns a 32.8 K%, and his stuff is pretty electric. He has pitched a little bit better than his numbers thus far, but then again, he only has a 0.53 ERA on the year. The thing about Glasnow is that he is dripping with star power. His 6’8” lanky frame provides him with the perfect body to develop his skill set into. Prior to this season, Glasnow relied almost solely on his heater. He has finally decided to utilize his curveball more so far, throwing it at a 31.1% clip. To put that into perspective, last season he only threw it 16.4% of the time. The ace-like potential has always been there with this guy; in 2019, it’s finally coming out.
Mix all of that in with the fact he’s playing for the first-place Rays, who are currently blowing the AL East out of the water, and Glasnow might win 20 games. His own teammate, Blake Snell, might very well end up being his biggest competition for the AL Cy Young Award. Yep, that’s how enticing Glasnow is right now. If anyone in your league wants to give him up for less than what he’s worth, you won’t regret hopping on that train.
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Alex Altmix is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive or follow him @Altmix_23.
