Luis Castillo is crafting a fine case study as to why fantasy baseball managers should never hold a grudge.

A favorite breakout selection last year, the righty sparked panic by ceding a 7.85 ERA through April. Rather than dismissing the hard-throwing righty, drafters went double-or-nothing this spring because of his late recovery. He has rewarded those forgiving investors by allowing just five hits and two hits over three stellar outings, recording 25 strikeouts in the process.

As noted by The Athletic’s Matt Modica, Castillo wields a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 28 starts since May 2, 2018. Move the timeline two months later to July 2, and he brandishes a 2.30 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 101.2 innings.

It’s hard to pick the most impressive element of his dominant start. Perhaps it’s his microscopic 57.1% contact rate, the lowest of any National League starter. When opponents actually have gotten bat on ball, they have failed to square up with any authority. Among his 37 batted balls, FanGraphs classifies just four as liners and 21 as ground balls. The early 57.1% ground-ball rate is especially encouraging since it’s more in line with 2017’s elite 58.8% clip than last year’s regressed 45.9% result.

Per Baseball Savant, he has yet to relinquish a barrel — an optimal blend of exit velocity (at least 98 mph) and launch angle. Such feeble contact has yielded the lowest xwOBA (.193) of any starting pitcher. That’s still 41 points above his actual wOBA.

Castillo’s control still remains a work in progress, and he’s obviously not going to sustain a 0.92 ERA and .135 BABIP over a full season. As evidenced by Jacob deGrom and Trevor Bauer’s rare off days this week, even the elite aces won’t have their best stuff some nights. Still, the Reds’ hurler has shown enough promise to consider a borderline top-20 starter who could climb even higher throughout the season.

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Jose Alvarado: Four Saves (and other good stuff)
Saves say little about a reliever’s skill, but simply receiving (and converting) four early opportunities is a major boon to Alvarado’s fantasy value.

Heading into the season, an uncertain role was the main concern for a talented southpaw subjected to Tampa Bay’s unconventional whims. The Rays didn’t deploy him as a closer after trading Alex Colome, so they were far from guaranteed to utilize him in ninth innings this season. After recording a 2.39 ERA, 30.4% K rate, and 55.0% ground-ball rate in 2018, that was the only factor preventing the 23-year-old from going as a near top-10 stopper.

Alvarado has logged four of Tampa Bay’s six saves. Hunter Wood picked up one by working the final three frames, and Diego Castillo snagged the other because Alvarado had pitched in each of the previous two days.

Of course, readers should want more information than a raw saves count. The 23-year-old has dominated, submitting 11 strikeouts in 6.1 scoreless innings with a 60.8% contact rate. How is anyone supposed to hit a 99-mph with ridiculous movement? That’s not even his best pitch. He has yet to yield a hit with the fastest slider of any reliever. As long as he’s locked into saves, it’s not hyperbole to say Alvarado is on his way to becoming this year’s Blake Treinen.

Tyler White: -11° Launch Angle
Two weeks into the season, White has shunned gravity with a bizarrely low launch angle. For perspective, only four other hitters with at least 10 batted balls have a negative rate. Jonathan Villar — a speedster who can beat out ground balls —  posted MLB’s worst rate at -3.7° last year.

Not nearly as fleet of foot, half of White’s 12 batted balls have resulted in ground outs. He has notched just one extra-base hit (a double) in 25 plate appearances. While RBI is far from a perfect stat, it’s awfully alarming that he hasn’t even driven in one teammate from a stacked Astros lineup.

Already buried to eighth in the batting order, White could soon play himself out a starting job if he keeps mashing balls into the dirt. Top prospect Kyle Tucker is waiting for another opportunity, and Yordan Alvarez has already blasted four home runs in Triple-A. Shallow Mixed-league managers don’t need to wait for the Astros to move on before doing so.

Sean Newcomb: 88.8% Contact Rate
On the surface, Newcomb has proved the naysayers wrong by yielding two runs in as many starts this season. Despite that success, his inability to miss bats creates grave cause for concern.

While ebbing and flowing mightily last season, the southpaw was at least a consistently terrific strikeout source who compiled 160 punchouts in 164 frames. This year, however, he has just five in 11 innings, a major problem when paired with six walks. With his average fastball velocity down nearly a full tick, his opposing contact rate has skyrocketed by 11.3 points. Only Jake Arrieta has amassed a lower swinging-strike rate than Newcomb’s 4.8%.

This is coming from someone who never wanted Newcomb in the first place, but sell the 25-year-old if any competitors are more focused on the run column. Maddening to roster even at his best, he’s not mixed-league viable if the velocity and strikeouts don’t rise back to past norms.

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