Welcome to the Masters week on DraftKings, my friends! There are a variety of good contests this week (which we discuss a little bit later) for the first major of the PGA season. There are eight golfers priced at or above $9,500 this week. Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson are the highest priced golfers this week at $11,600 and $11,300, respectively. Justin Rose ($10,800), Tiger Woods ($10,500), Justin Thomas ($10,200), and Jon Rahm ($10,000) round out the five-digit salary club. DraftKings provides you with $50,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $8,333.
Remember that just like real-life golf, DFS golf can be frustrating and fun all at the same time. For example, out of the seven experts that pick winners for PGAtour.com, four of them had Billy Horschel (who missed the cut). Corey Conners ended up winning, but he had to qualify on Monday to even make the tournament. DFS Golf is really hard. Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind.
All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.
Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
The Masters is played at the Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia. The Par 72 course measures 7,475. It has some of the most iconic holes in all of golf.
This is a much smaller field than we are used to as 87 players are scheduled to tee it up. The top 50 (and ties will make the cut). The Masters also is unique in that any player within 10 shots of the lead after day two will also make the cut. This usually increases the number of 6/6 DFS lineups, so getting all of your golfers through to the weekend is necessary but not an automatic cash as it is most weeks. In the last five years, the average cut line has been 4-over par. On average, 54 players have made the cut in the last five years for a 64% made cut rate among the participants.
The average winning score for the previous 15 Masters has been 11-under par. The best score during that time was Jordan Spieth’s 18-under par in 2015. The worst winning score was Zach Johnson’s 1-over par in 2007. In the last six years, four of the winners have won with a score single-digit under par score.
Previous winners of the Masters that are in the field this week include Patrick Reed (2018), Sergio Garcia (2017), Danny Willett (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), Bubba Watson (2014, 2012), Adam Scott (2013), Charl Schwartzel (2011), Phil Mickelson (2010, 2006, 2004), Angel Cabrera (2009), Trevor Immelman (2008), Zach Johnson (2007), Tiger Woods (2005, 2002, 2001, 1997), Mike Weir (2003), Vijay Singh (2000), Jose Maria Olazabal (1999, 1994), Mark O’Meara (1998), Bernard Langer (1993, 1985), Fred Couples (1992), Ian Woosnam (1991), and Sandy Lyle (1988).
The bent grass greens are extremely firm, fast, and have extreme undulations to them. Not only are there more three putts than normal but the GIR is much lower than Tour average because the ball often rolls off the green even on seemingly good approach shots. The average approach shot typically comes from more than 175 yards.
There are four Par 3s (186-yard average), four Par 5s (546-yard average), and 14 Par 4s (454-yard averaged) on the course. The Par 5s are where the real scoring occurs as there is a nearly 38% birdie-or-better rate on those holes. Comparatively speaking, the Par 3s and Par 4s have birdie-or-better rates of only 10-11% each.
Holes #11, #12, and #13 make up “Amen Corner”, is a famous stretch of holes that is considered very challenging, especially since it includes the toughest hole on the course. Hole #11 has a 37% bogey-or-worse rate. However, hole #13 has been one of the best scoring holes on the course with its’ nearly 40% birdie-or-better rate.
Each of the last eight Masters winners have had a top-three finish at some point in the calendar year prior to winning at Augusta. Five of the eight also had a win (Reed, Scott, and Bubba in 2012 are the three that didn’t win in the year prior to winning the Masters).
The last seven Masters winners have gained at least a total of 13.4 strokes in the two tournaments that they played immediately preceding their Masters win (courtesy of Kenny Kim). Only five players would qualify for that trend this year: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Kuchar, and Hideki Matsuyama.
The last golfer outside the OWGR top-25 to win the Masters was Charl Schwartzel in 2011.
Rickie Fowler, last year’s runner-up, would have won all but six of the previous 81 Masters tournaments with his score of 14-under par.
In the last five years, there are five golfers that have three top-10 finishes during that time. The golfers include Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, and Jordan Spieth.
In the last five years, there are only five players that have finished in the top five at least twice. Matt Kuchar, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, and Rory McIlroy are the guys that have put themselves in position to win on multiple occasions.
Rory McIlroy is the only golfer that has recorded top-10 finishes in each of the last two years. In fact, he has a string of five straight top-10 finishes at the Masters.
A win would make McIlroy the sixth golfer in history (Sarazen, Hogan, Player, Woods, and Nicklaus) to win the career Grand Slam.
The last two Masters champions (Sergio Garcia and Danny Willet) have failed to make the cut as defending champions.
Kyle Stanley leads the PGA Tour with 175 holes without a three-putt. That ability could prove useful this week with how tough Augusta National’s greens typically are. Sergio Garcia is the second-best in this year’s field with 115 consecutive holes without a three-putt.
The winner has been decided in a playoff in three of the previous seven years.
CONTESTS TO CONSIDER
$0.25 – One of the lowest stakes GPPs that DK offers. This is a great contest to have fun playing around with different lineups. You can enter up to 20 lineups so you can max enter for less than the cost of a meal. First prize is $500.
$0.50 – Can decide who to play because so many golfers look good this week? Then this might be your option. This is your chance to play like many of the pros do and mass multi enter (MME) 150 lineups. If you go that route, it’ll cost you $75 to enter but first prize is $4,000 and you can have a bigger player pool.
$1.00 Single Entry – First place is only $1,000 but you don’t have to go against the pros using optimizers and computer programs. Figure out your best lineup and enter it against everyone else’s best lineup.
$4.00 – The winner gets $50,000. The maximum entries are capped at 20 so you really aren’t at a huge disadvantage even if you only enter one or two lineups.
$20 – Who wants to be a millionaire? This is the lottery ticket this week. It is unlikely that you’ll win the million-dollar first prize, but somebody has to win it and why not you. You’ll need to differentiate your lineup at one or two spots and probably need all of your guys to finish in the top 10-15 as well as having the winner. It’s a fun tournament to play if you want to fire an entry into it.
COURSE FIT (Key Statistics)
Shots Gained: Approach
One of the most correlated stats year in and year out at the Masters is SG: Approach. Augusta National is said to be a “second-shot course” and having a consistent approach game puts a golfer in position to score well. In examining recent form (last 8, 12, 24, 36 rounds) for all of the golfers approach game, the ten golfers that measure out the best among each of those time frames for SG: Approach (in rank order) include: Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Tiger Woods, Adam Long and Kevin Kisner.
Par 5 Scoring
Last year Patrick Reed won with a score of 15-under par. Amazingly, he was 13-under par for the week on Par 5s. Tiger Woods would dominate the Masters because he dominated the Par 5s. When looking at recent form on Par 5 scoring (last 8, 12, 24, 36 rounds), the top 10 golfers include (listed in rank order): Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Dustin Johnson, and Rory McIlroy.
Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee
You don’t want to be wayward with your drives, but Augusta is much more forgiving than many other courses. You still want to be in position to hit a good approach shot. Length is important at Augusta because it can be the difference between hitting an 9-iron or wedge into some of these difficult greens or having to use a long iron. That can mean all the difference with these firm, undulating greens. Gaining strokes off the tee can give a golfer a huge advantage here. The ten golfers that have rated out the best recently (last 8, 12, 24, 36 rounds) in SG: OTT (in rank order) include: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Bubba Watson, Bryson DeChambeau, Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Keith Mitchell, and Justin Thomas.
COURSE HISTORY
Tiger Woods ($10,500)
Since his record-breaking performance in the 1997 Masters, he has made 19 straight cuts here. More importantly, overall, he has a total of 13 top-10 finishes, including four wins. He hasn’t been the Tiger of old the last few times he has played at Augusta but still has managed to give us some glimpses into greatness. Only Jack Nicklaus has more green jackets in his closet than does Tiger.
Jordan Spieth ($8,900)
This week may not settle the course history vs. recent form debate for good but it will probably give one side extra ammunition. Spieth hasn’t had a top-10 finish since last July. But if he is ever going to get back on the right path, this week seems to be the week. He absolutely loves Augusta National. The 2015 winner has two runner-up finishes, including a third-place finish last year. His worst finish in his five years of competing was 11th in 2017.
Fred Couples ($6,200)
I probably won’t play Couples, but he has earned a mention, not just as a former champion (1992) but because he continues to perform well here. Outside of last year’s 38th and the missed cut in 2015, he has six top-20 finishes in his last eight starts at Augusta. Overall, he has made the cut in 30 of his 33 starts and has 11 top-10 finishes.
RECENT FORM
Rory McIlroy ($11,600)
Nobody is playing better than McIlroy right now. He has played in six golf tournaments in the 2019 calendar year and his worst finish is a 6th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Five top-five finishes, including a win at The PLAYERS is an incredible feat. He also leads in total strokes gained and is second in fantasy scoring (to Justin Rose) in the last 36 rounds played.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200)
Since missing the cut in early July at the French Open, Fleetwood has played in 23 straight events worldwide. During that stretch, he has 19 top-25 finishes and 9 top-10 finishes. He trails only Byeong-Hun An, Jason Kokrak, and Rickie Fowler with 17 consecutive PGA Tour cuts made. He is one of the most consistent golfers in the world and it’s only a matter of time before he gets another win.
Xander Schauffele ($8,500)
He did have really good form before missing the cut at The PLAYERS, however, a lot of golfers struggle at TPC Sawgrass. He was nearly 30% owned in some DFS contests. He started the tournament well but then hit a rough patch and couldn’t make anything around the green eventually missing the cut on the number. Prior to that he had seven straight top-25 finishes, which included winning a World Golf Championship and the Tournament of Champions. In the last 36 rounds, he is fourth in total shots gained and eighth in fantasy scoring.
FAVORITE $10,000+ PLAY
Rory McIlroy ($11,600)
My favorite play in this range is any golfer that is the lowest owned. Any of these players can perform well. None of them are bad. It is just more of a preference. However, my favorite player for this week in this range is Rory McIlroy. This is not a bold call as some books have him as a 6-to-1 favorite right now. Nobody is playing better than him right now. All six of his 2019 starts have resulted in top-six finishes. As for course history, he has five straight top-10 finishes. There is always the chance that the pressure of trying to win the career Grand-Slam gets to him, but I like him to win this week.
FAVORITE $8,000 & $9,000 PLAYS
Paul Casey ($9,000)
Four top-10 finishes and three top-five finishes in his last six events, including a repeat win at the Valspar has Casey playing as good of golf right now as anyone not named Rory McIlroy. Overall, in his last 12 events, he has 10 top-25 finishes. He is very consistent. As far as the Masters goes, his worst finish in the last four years was last year when he was T15. Prior to that, he had three straight top-six finishes. When you combine his consistent play recently with his Masters finishes, you have one of the stronger plays in this field.
Bubba Watson ($8,800)
A two-time winner at Augusta National, Watson also finished T5 last year. If you quickly look at his history, you’ll see a MC in 2017 but that is when he was going through some issues and playing with a lower quality golf ball. He showed last year that he still likes himself some Augusta National. His recent form is decent as he has four top-20 finishes in his last seven starts, including a T4 at both the Waste Management and the Valspar.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,700)
He is ranked #1 for the last 24 rounds in SG: Approach, which is a key stat for playing Augusta National. He was not fully healthy last year but still finished in the top 20. This was on the heels of a T11 > T7 > 5 in the previous three years. He is still trying to get back to his form from a few years ago when he was a top five golfer in the world. However, his T8 at The PLAYERS give us confidence that he is close. This result was his third top-10 finish in his last seven events.
FAVORITE $7,000 PLAYS
Matt Kuchar ($7,900)
In his last 10 events, he has four top-five finishes, including two victories. His most recent performances have been a T7 at the Valero last week and a runner-up performance to Kevin Kisner at the WGC-Dell Match Play. He hasn’t missed a cut in his last 14 events. In the last 24 rounds, he is ranked second in GIR, fifth in SG: Approach, and sixth in Par 5 scoring, which are a few of my favorite stats this week. He also has performed well at the Masters, making the cut each of the last five years and finishing in the top five in 2017 and 2014.
Sergio Garcia ($7,700)
His disqualification in Saudi Arabia and his match play controversy with Matt Kuchar has possibly drown out the fact that he is playing some pretty good golf after a tough summer of 2018. He has nine top-10 finishes in his last 13 events (which includes his Saudi Open DQ). He is ranked fifth in the last 24 rounds for SG: Approach and is 11th in GIR. The 2017 Masters champion has been a little inconsistent here. In the last seven years, he has missed the cut twice, but he also has four top-20 finishes. He certainly has the game and the talent for Augusta National. His form is good right now and he has proven that he can win here. He just needs to stay away from a blowup like last year’s 13 on hole #15, where he put five balls in the water.
Henrik Stenson ($7,600)
I am not completely comfortable with Stenson as his form has been a little shaky. In the last 24 rounds, he is 17th in GIR and sixth in SG: Approach. Expanding the sample size out to the last 75 rounds, and he is first in GIR and third in SG: Approach. He is probably going to rate out pretty well in most stat models. I just haven’t liked his 2019, but he does seem to be finding his form a little bit right now. After starting the 2019 calendar year with three straight missed cuts, he has made the cut in four of his last five events. During that time, he has three top-25 finishes, including a T9 at the WGC-Dell Match Play. If his results continue to trend up and his superior ball-striking and approach game stays sharp, then he should be able to repeat his recent performances at Augusta National. He has made the cut here six out of the last seven years, including a T5 last year. He has top-25 finishes five of his previous seven starts at Augusta National.
Gary Woodland ($7,500)
His course history is terrible here as he has missed three straight cuts. My player pool will be almost entirely made up of players that have good histories at Augusta National. Woodland may be the exception. By the way, he did finish 26th here in 2014. He checks the boxes in recent form and course fit, though. He should be good here. I am not sure why he hasn’t had the results. The last year has been different for Woodland than past years as he has been playing consistently well. He is long and straight off the tee. He hits his irons well. He is okay around the greens but does struggle when he gets on the putting surface. In the last 36 rounds, he ranks sixth in fantasy scoring. Prior to missing the cut at the Valspar, he had the PGA’s longest consecutive cuts made streak at 22 tournaments. He has 10 top-20 finishes in his last 15 starts, including three top-five finishes.
Charles Howell ($7,000)
He has been playing really well this year. In my model, he is 10th in recent form as he has six top-15 finishes in his last 10 events with his worst finish being 35th at The PLAYERS Championship. He is 10th in total shots gained and ninth in fantasy scoring in the last 24 rounds. The knock against him is that his approach game hasn’t been as sharp as I’d like, and this is the first time playing here since 2012. But the good news is that he finished 19th that year. He also grew up in Augusta, Georgia if you are into those kinds of narratives.
FAVORITE $6,000 PLAYS
Charley Hoffman ($6,800)
Hoffman has great course history at the Masters as he has made four straight cuts, including having two top-15 finishes during that time. He finished 12th last year. He was runner up this past week at the Valero after finishing 18th at the Valspar Championship. He missed three straight cuts prior to the recent top 20 performances. He stats don’t pop off the page, nor has he been very consistent for the last year. However, his last two tournaments have been good as he tees it up at a course that he loves.
Kevin Kisner ($6,700)
Kisner is 19th in the field in total shots gained over the last 24 rounds. He is also top 20 in Shots Gained: Approach and Shots Gained: Off the Tee (even though he is not a bomber). He has been trending up for a while with six top-30 finishes in a row. He finally broke through with a win two weeks ago at the WGC-Dell Match Play. He looks to be peaking at just the right time for the Masters, where he has made three straight cuts and finished 28th last year.
Jimmy Walker ($6,600)
Similarly, to Hoffman, no stats really jump off the paper for Walker recently. He has definitely not been setting the world on fire. However, he has made three straight cuts. This may not seem like much, but we’ll take whatever glimmer of hope we can find with Walker. He finished 30th last week at the Valero Texas Open. He did make the cut at The PLAYERS. All of this is important because his course history is pretty good. He has made five straight cuts, including three top-20 finishes. Last year, he came into this even with very similar form and finished 20th. We’d take that in a heartbeat at this price.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
