Baseball is back, and now that the glimmer of opening weekend is behind us, we can get into the DFS grind for 2019. It’s an interesting Monday slate with nine games on FanDuel’s main contests tonight. Since most teams are on their fourth and fifth games, we are looking at plenty of bottom-tier starters and no bona fide ace scheduled to pitch tonight. Even with teams throwing their weaker starting pitchers, there isn’t too much offense expected from this slate either. Only HOU @ TEX (9.5 O/U) and BAL @ TOR (9.0 O/U) have an expected total of nine runs or higher.
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Starting Pitcher
Steven Matz (NYM): $8,200 @ MIA
Matz’s underlying numbers from last season aren’t pretty. He finished 2018 with a 4.62 FIP, 1.46 HR/9, and 2.62 K/BB ratio. However, he finished strong and showed signs of promise heading into 2019. Over the last two months, he had a 3.11 ERA and 3.1 K/BB ratio. He was still giving up home runs, but Matz’s home run rate seems a little fluky. He only yielded a 6.9-degree average launch angle along with a .379 xSLG last year, but a 16.6% HR/FB ratio inflated his home runs allowed to 25. Long balls shouldn’t be a worry against the Marlins in Miami, as they had a meager .115 ISO against southpaws and .101 ISO at home in 2018. They didn’t add anyone to juice those numbers either, as one of their biggest offseason additions, Neil Walker, had just a .477 OPS and .068 ISO against left-handed pitchers last year. The floor is high for Matz in this matchup.
