I’ve opted to skirt the rules with one of my pitching selections, as he’s owned in 30% of leagues at one of the major providers. Having said that, he’s just 15% owned at the other, and I offset the pick with an extremely low-owned suggestion.

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Kyle Gibson (MIN): Yahoo! – 15%, ESPN – 30%
Gibson’s sporting an ERA north of 6.00, but his ERA estimators are kinder — albeit still not exciting. The righty’s been especially hurt by strand issues with a 59.7% LOB% that’s well below his career mark of 71.0% and 2018 mark of 75.5%, per FanGraphs. The 31-year-old righty’s plate discipline numbers provide reason for optimism, though.

After tallying a 35.6% Zone%, 57.6% F-Strike%, and 67.7% Z-Swing% in 2018, he’s improved each of those marks to 39.6%, 59.8%, and 59.7% (hitters are taking more strikes), respectively, while posting an identically strong 11.5% SwStr%. He’s using his pitch mix very similarly to last year, and he’s bumped his 49.8% GB% from last year up to 53.8% this season. He probably isn’t a true-talent 3.62 ERA pitcher (his ERA from last year), but he’s much closer to that guy than the north-of-6.00 ERA guy he’s been thus far this year. He’s a back-end starter in 12-team mixers who should be universally owned in larger leagues.

Derek Holland (SF): Yahoo! – 18%, ESPN – 9%
Holland’s career was resurrected last year. This year, he’s slipped a bit in ERA (3.57 in 2018 to 4.33 this season), but he’s bumped his strikeout rate up from 23.3% to 30.6% with a corresponding surge in swinging strike percentage from 10.1% to 12.3%. Among qualified pitchers this year, Holland’s strikeout rate is 15th and his swinging strike percentage is 28th. The veteran southpaw’s kicked his slider usage up from 15.3% last year to 22.7% this year, and the offering has a gaudy 23.3% SwStr%. In other words, it’s easy to see where the uptick in swinging strikes and strikeouts has come from.

Holland was at his best pitching at home last year with a 3.51 ERA in 82.0 innings, and he’s tallied a 3.46 ERA in 13.0 innings at Oracle Park thus far this year. San Francisco’s home digs suppresses runs (0.951 park factor for runs), and it’s the hardest ballpark in the majors to reach the seats in with a park factor for homers of 0.688. At the least, Holland’s worth rostering for his home starts. He gets the Yankees in San Francisco in his next start and is a strong option in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers. He’ll get the Reds in Cincinnati after that. The venue for that turn is tough, but the Red Legs have a limited number of hitters who punish southpaws, so he’s a potentially usable option there in deeper leagues (14-team mixers or deeper).

Jorge Lopez (KC): Yahoo! – 4%, ESPN – 4%
Lopez was once a well-regarded prospect, but the shine on his star has worn off the last few years. He was part of Kansas City’s trade haul for Mike Moustakas, and the 26-year-old hurler has made five starts this year after getting knocked around in seven starts after his acquisition last season. The young righty has struggled mightily with homers this year with 2.10 HR/9 and a 21.2% HR/FB. His dinger troubles should regress. Last year, Jon Gray’s 18.1% HR/FB was the highest among qualified pitchers, and even after factoring in that the ball might be juiced again this year, when the ball was juiced back in 2017, Masahiro Tanaka’s 21.2% HR/FB was the highest among qualified pitchers and one of only two north of 19%.

The biggest knock on Lopez throughout his minor-league career was his control and command. He’s done a good job of limiting free passes this year with just a 7.0% BB%, and his plate discipline numbers such as his Zone% and F-Strike% are within a tick of league average. His 10.7% SwStr% is a tiny bit below the league average of 11.0%, but his 32.1% O-Swing% and 63.9% Z-Swing% are both better than the league averages of 29.3% and 66.8%, respectively. Stealing extra strikes on pitches in the zone and getting hitters to chase outside of the zone more often than average is a plus formula for success.

I’m most intrigued by Lopez, however, after looking at his pitch data. The righty throws a four-seamer, sinker, curve, slider, and changeup. Three of those pitches have a swinging strike percentage north of 14% with the changeup sitting at 14.8%, the curve at 15.9%, and the slider leading the way at 21.7%. With three options and swing-and-miss strikeout weapons, Lopez has a chance to be an asset in strikeouts with upside for more. He’s pitched six or more innings in four of five starts, and he’s struck out five or more batters four times. Lopez is a streaming option for his Saturday start against the pathetic Angels’ lineup, and he has the potential to stick in deeper leagues.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.